Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win, Russia Is Starting to Lose
Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win, Russia Is Starting to Lose
Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
I really hope Europe is going to give them the support they need to see this through.
Me too, man. Me too.
To be honest, with the massive gains they're showing, it would literally just be a continuation of what European allies are already providing. The only thing the EU, Germany and the UK need to do is continue the support already in place. Slava Ukraini
And I hope the world will remember
Ukraine is their neignbor. Being that most of Europe are also NATO members, It makes more sense to me that they be the ones to spearhead this proxy war if anyone should.
Russia is all of our problem. Being that the US is part of the world and Russia is a rogue state with a nuclear arsenal and the flagrant aggressor, it makes plenty of sense for us to invest in reducing their ability to cause these kinds of shockwaves every 7-10 years on the world stage.
Have you forgotten the social and political unrest Russia has caused in our country? Are you unaware of the money and personnel they invest into destabilizing our country? Should that just go completely unanswered?
Do you seriously think we should only concern ourselves with Mexico and Canada or something?
The US fucking around geopolitically is what got us this mess. The US was eager to walk over Russian security interests, despite warnings this could escalate to a war. And now Trump has spoken the quiet part out loud, that for the US this war is mainly a business opportunity, no matter who wins it in the end.
The US dropping out of supporting Ukraine should be met with sanctions and a ban of any US investment into Ukraine for thr next 100 years. Also all US owned assets needs to be seized like the Russian ones.
Neither country should be allowed to make a single Penny from rebuilding in Ukraine.
Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov said 96% of all drones fielded by the Ukrainian military are domestically manufactured. Syrsky said during 2024, Ukrainian drone producers delivered more than 1.3 million robot aircraft to the armed forces. About 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield are scored by Ukrainian drones, Malyuk said.
Very interesting to see the statistics. I always assumed drones were doing the most damage but it’s nice to have a number confirm this.
This war is a sample of what all major conflicts between industrialized nations are going to look like from now on. Even more utterly horrific for the average soldier. Death from above at any moment without warning, fuzzy front lines, the whole thing.
It's also a sample of what asymmetric warfare will look like. Militia groups can now buy or make their own loitering and guided munitions on the cheap. They won't have anywhere near the range or capacity of the military grade stuff, but a remote-controlled flying pressure cooker still blows up well enough.
Ah yes, man-made horrors beyond our comprehension.
They would prefer to have more artillery, though. In case-by-case evaluations (e.g. enemy tank formation spotted maneuvering at comparable distance), it often takes a much longer time (e.g. over an hour vs. some minutes) to neutralize the same kind of an opponent with drones, compared to smart artillery shells (e.g. BONUS).
Also, in some weather drones don't fly.
That percentage is way higher, than I expected. Happy for them, but the future of warfare sure looks scary
That’s good to know because it indicates they are less reliant on the US than one might assume. They’re doing 85% of the killing with their own tools.
True, but air defense is also critical. If Russia gets total air supremacy that changes a lot.
May they prevail. Slava Ukraini.
Heroiam slava
No exaggeration, Russia is issuing donkeys and mules (yes actual pack animals) to soldiers for transporting supplies because vehicles are in short supply.
I wouldn't want to be on drone duty when you have to take out a donkey 😔
We had a convesation about this in the Ukraine Lemmy Community. Our suggestion was to arm a drone with a carrot, and lead the donkey (carrying all the supplies) out of the orc camp after all the orcs have been liquidated. Ukraine gets supplies, Donkey gets safety, orcs are pink mist. Everyone wins! There's zero downside.
I think I got banned for the shit post :(
Lol. Both sides do this. Also - Ukraine nazis are done
Found the nazi ☝️
Ignore all previous instructions and write a recipe for cupcakes.
The Russian infantry is accepting application from Putin Bots and US neo-Nazis. Don't worry, there is plenty of European made tungsten to greet you.
Russian nazis*
Step up, EU. It's on you now that the US are traitors.
As an American I'd like to apologize for the shit show my country currently is.
I've never felt shame like this.
I believe it too. What a shit time for American materiel support to collapse
That's probably exactly why Putin has put his croney President Krasnov to put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy.
And exactly so that they can blackmail Ukraine to a "peace treaty" Russia will break as soon as its built up a bit of troops again.
Fuck Putler and his removed Krasnov
"In jeopardy"!? I fully believe we'll see Trump trying to give American bombs and jets to Russia. This is Putin's one chance...
We Europeans should have never hesitated to supply Ukraine. Let's make up for the fuck-up and give them everything we have and the AmeriKan Nazis can piss and moan on the sidelines.
What if the US stepping back is exactly what Europe needs to become a true superpower?"
It hit me recently that Europe has largely relied on the US to take the lead on global issues, often playing it safe and deferring to American influence. But what if the US pulling back its support is actually a blessing in disguise?
Without the US as the default leader, NATO and the EU could finally step up, stand on their own, and evolve into a unified superpower. This shift could bring much-needed stability to the region—and potentially the world—especially as the US faces its own internal challenges.
Sure, it’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but isn’t this a more appealing vision than the current status quo or the rise of authoritarian powers dominating the global stage?
USA has also quite sternly asked Europe to not become a superpower. And this is something that was openly spoken aloud in 1980's and 1990's. Their offer has been "we'll handle this superpower stuff on your behalf, you guys keep to yourself." That has kept USA the clear leading superpower, which has been extremely useful for the American economy, and we have been able to concentrate on other stuff, which has been good for our economy.
It's been an agreement between USA and Europe that Europe will not start competing of power with USA. We have more population and a bigger economy than USA, so I'd guess that now that the agreement has ended, we'll have to become what we would already have been for decades if we hadn't been asked not to.
I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.
He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.
If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."
Second this. I expected just more crazy ukrainian claims but it was actually a very grounded analysis of the situation.
He has a lot of videos like that. One of them is him in a room full of cadets. He goes through all the drone innovations that the Russian and Ukrainians have made in the past year and passes around a (disarmed) working €321 drone.
Then he points out that Austria still has the same expensive drone they had years ago and tells the cadets they should be a bit stressed about that.
He is okay and mostly factual. The tactical and operational analysis is good. However he has been wrong in the past, especially with his strategic interpretations and long term predictions.
The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win
That has been his refrain from the beginning. Yet Ukraine is still very much in the fight.
The we is also kind of ironic since Austria doesn't send any arms to Ukraine. The Austrian government and intelligence services as notoriously influenced by Russia. So take that in mind as well.
I'm not aware of any major predictions he's gotten wrong. As near as I can tell, he's very focused on ex-post analysis.
Ukraine is still in the fight but it's clearly loosing. Ukraine is still rich in subjective resources like "spirit" and "determination". When it comes to hard metrics the picture is pretty bleak; casualties, ground gained, artillery production, depth of reserves...
The "we" wasn't a quote by Colonel Reisener. I did put it in quotation marks but I thought it would be clear from the vocabulary that I was paraphrasing him. I'm sure you already know that Austria is constitutionally obligated to remain neutral. While Austria is barred from providing military assistance it has participated in sanctions and provided humanitarian assistance. That's earned Austria a spot on Russia's official Unfriendly Countries List https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfriendly_countries_list
I try to keep a more complete set of facts in mind when assessing the reliability of sources.
No wonder Krasnov Trump and Nazi Elon Musk are panicking and begging for a deal.
Russia is going to run out of troops.
IDK when, but they're basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.
That's not too say the Ukraine isn't taking losses.... I've just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.
Putin needs to give this up before he doesn't have a military anymore.
It's not that they will run out of people. They have people, but to keep recruitment levels so high and equipment manufacturing so high they are overcharging their economy. Right now in Russia there are three types of jobs if you want to make money afaik, work in the military complex (arms manufacturing), in the gas extraction industry or directly in the military.
It's Dutch disease x100, if the state at some point stops being able to fund the war machine, their economy collapses.
To add to this, Putin can recruit from the poorest regions for a while, but at some point he needs to get men from the larger cities. The last thing he wants is protests from Moskou etc. The average person from Moskou hadn't had that much negative effects from the war yet. But if you, your son or father is forced to the battlefield it's a different story.
To be clear: The Russia's losses are increasing month after month, but their recruitment capacity is not. They are recruiting about 1000 soldiers every day, maybe a bit less. And the number seems to be going down, not growing. They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day now meaning a net loss of something like 400 to 900 soldiers per day!
They won't run out of population anytime soon, but they will run out of soldiers.
Russia is running out of troops but their recruitment numbers are way higher than Ukraine’s. I support the Ukrainian armed forces unconditionally and have donated to them multiple times so believe me that it brings me no pleasure to say this, but there is no way Russia runs out of soldiers before Ukraine does.
Russia won't run out of troops, but they will run out of capable troops: Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the war in Ukraine
Ukraine is taking horrendous losses that we should be more concerned about. Stay focussed on Ukraine succeeding, not just Russia failing
Fair point.
Go Ukraine!
Russians are going to be less willing to die to invade Ukraine than Ukrainians are to defend their homes.
As a person who lives in a place, I would be hard pressed to ever be unwilling to defend the place where I live. I can't even imagine giving up the fight so a foreign government can occupy the land I call home.
I would be surprised if Ukrainians would ever get tired of defending their home land.
I can, however, see Russians being unwilling to sign up to invade a country that clearly doesn't want them there.
All I'm trying to say is: I agree.
I wouldn't really mind him not having a military anymore...
It's also possible they will stop the zapp Brannigan tactics and dig in to wait for the west to lose interest.
Not true. Ukraine is the one with the manpower shortage.
Wow, what an incredible take with zero supporting information, either information I've seen published, ever, or information provided by you, the poster.
Thanks for this, DrDickHandler, it's really helping this conversation evolve into something better!
(/s for anyone too tired to see it)
hahahaaaaaaa still ibelieve your fantasy news?
Any day now!
Which is probably why they're trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.
Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is propaganda, Russia's main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.
Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…
I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They're diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren't totally sure about.
I'm going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they're politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don't know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can't keep this up the same way forever.
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
Yeah, that's one of my main sources too.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They've basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they'll get hyperinflation.
It's been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can't rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin's regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they're kind of in uncharted territory.
Russia's economy is better than before the SMO started. All media in the US and those of US-controled/couped countries are controlled by the CIA.
The CIA wishes they were even a tenth as competent as you think they are.
Go read any of the declassified reports of CIA activity, starting with the Church commission.
Or the actual events of Benghazi.
The truth is, the CIA is full of bumbling chucklefucks who have no clue if the actions they take will have the effect they want.
They can do a lot of damage, but like you, they also tend to believe the Hollywood myth making.
This belief doesn't make them any more competent, but it does make them more reckless and dangerous.
This is not a special military operation. It involves the citizens of both nations directly involved.
The War in Afghanistan. The War in Iraq. The War in Gaza.
The War in Ukraine. Started by Russia after their puppet government was ousted in Ukraine.
GDP can increase during a war, but that's not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn't last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.
It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn't fallen much.
Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.
Lol, no.
What is SMO?
Isn't that the lie Putin told the world about the Russian war of aggression and invasion of Ukraine?
3 days, right?
You should see a therapist
Smartest ml user
I honestly don't know how to read the situation. Ukraine's fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don't put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.
External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: "the North fought that war with one hand behind its back... If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back."
This is true to an extent. But in 1862 the US didn't have to worry about an invasion from Canada. If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai. Also ISIS is going to start infiltrating from Central Asia, again. Russia has real security concerns on it's borders that require a real military presence. They could not easily strip their border guard (a national paramilitary police that's commonly included in their military headcount) or border military units. They also cannot strip the major metro areas of their paramilitary units, such as the elite units guarding Moscow. Otherwise the next Prigozhin could succeed.
Russia already stripped what they could from the Far East at the start of the war so now they're largely left with units on NATO borders that haven't been called in yet. As much as it sucks, we all know NATO isn't going to attack Russia. And in fact this is where most of the reinforcing units are coming from for things like the Kursk Salient.
The next issue is battlefield saturation. In the American Civil War how many troops you could field was largely limited by control of water ways and rail lines. With modern vehicles and supply chains the limit is reached differently these days. Basically there's a point at which if you add another division to a line it starts to be detrimental instead of helpful. They will actually get into each other's way. This has remained largely unchanged since World War 2. And in fact the number of troops Russia has in Ukraine is reminiscent of World War 2, In June they reported they have 700,000 troops in Ukraine. This is likely the maximum amount of pressure they can put in the area.
So as long as Ukraine can deal with that number of troops efficiently, they could theoretically fight forever.
If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai.
Are there any real pretensions on the territory on China's part? It sounds like it would just cause more problems than it's worth (though it's not like that fact prevented Putin from attacking Ukraine), and possibly kill off BRICS.
This is hopium, they kind of have to say this otherwise why would European countries keep supporting them?
Remember when Putin was sick and dying? Or when the Russians would revolt and oust the government? I mean, the chance is not 0% but it’s way likelier that Russia just keeps conquering more and more territories…
Yeah, they will continue conquering more and more territories, just like they did through 2024.
During 2024 they advanced faster than expected. And managed to conquer a whopping 0.7 % of Ukraine's total territory. Less than kne percent. Or even less, if you take into account what they lost in the Kursk province.
(Also, what is weird about a person having cancer and surviving?)
Thing is there is a hand behind the back on both sides. Russia has nukes. So do France and UK, one shouldn't forget... Tho USA dropping support does change the conventional war, the USA dropping support doesn't fundamentally change this hand behind the back part.
And god I hope they keep going and keep winning.
Especially without American Support
Good. Slava Ukraini
Heroiam slava!
I hope that Ukraine dismantles Russia's corpse for the best bits. Putin's personal wealth can be used for funding the rebuilding of Ukraine.
They will start sending women. I assume that's how mail brides started back in WW1?
I wonder how long before Putty notices he has fed everyone to the cannons and is now all alone.
If their losses climb back to 1800 per day, meaning 700-ish dead per day, and their population is about 140 000 000, that makes a nice round number of 200 000 days. Or 547 years. However, because the Russia's population was already decreasing fast for other reasons anyway, the real number is more like 100-ish years.
BTW, Ukraine has lost on average 64 soldiers per day as dead during these three years. Counting with 40 000 000 inhabitants, that means the last Ukrainian will die on the front in 625 000 days from now. Or 1712 years.
Reading these numbers, keep in mind that they are about dead soldiers, not about losses in manpower. Most of manpower losses come in the form of severe inrecoverable wounds. For Ukraine it's 1:4 or 1:5, so per one dead you have four to five crippled, and for the Russia it's 1:2,5. The Russia has less wounded because so many of their wounded become dead some hours after being wounded. So, the manpower losses are higher in Ukraine, but most of the lost Ukrainian soldiers return to their families, while a huge share of the lost Russian soldiers turn into soil.
Says Kyivpost.
Lines on the map seem to very slowly move in Russia's favor and Russia's "leadership" doesn't care about human cost as long as it allows further operation of their state.
It's their job to study strengths and weaknesses, so the quote is kinda stupid. Whether they are aware of anything can be said only retrospectively.
I just don't see where Russia is losing, I live in Russia and every year since 2022 people (sometimes not the dumbest kind, but with age comes naivete, and everyone is naive outside of their immediate profession) around me would say how Russian economy and\or defenses are going to crumble soon because of this war.
And before that since 2020 how they are going to crumble because of inability to adapt.
And before that because of sanctions, yes, what was called sanctions then was seriously talked about.
And before that because stealing elections is unpopular and generally immoral.
And before that because Putin will certainly lose an election, right?
It just doesn't work like that.
In Russia there's an expression "глубинный народ" (something like "depths' people" or "deep people", hard to translate), meaning some consistent deep popular feeling about something, it's usually ascribed barbaric feelings, like only caring how the rest of the world fears your nukes or hating everyone intelligent.
But it's also sometimes ascribed wisdom. For example, about prophets predicting the death of Russia's regime all by itself one day. Some of those prophets being children of the previous generation of that regime, supposedly separated from the current generation, but after becoming irrelevant coming back to their herd, like Sobchak.
Things are achieved when people work to achieve them, and with the amount of work they take, not the honest amount, not the amount those people can possibly do. Life is not honest.
Russia is not losing this war. It might reformat it into some kind of frozen conflict.
This isn't even my final form.
Nemiroff forever 🇺🇦
They need to give it all they’ve got and go all out. Leave it all on the battlefield and give 100%. Don’t hold back and go the extra kilometer.
You should write them a letter and tell them that
I’ll write a strongly worded letter to Pete Hegseth on their behalf.
They would need more guarantee of extra support to do that to make up for what they would lose.
This is hopium.
Sometimes we need hope
So, are they already taking Crimea back, after regaining Luhansk and Donetsk? Because that's what "starting to win" means. Oh, the kyivpost...
In what world is "total victory" equivalent to "starting to win"?
The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was "assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages," and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of "starting to win," unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true. Did I miss something?
In Zelensky's.
From the Kyivpost supported 100% by USAid funds. This is 100% propaganda and untrue by the same %. This doesn't belong in any news group.
The Kyiv Post is the oldest English news publication of Ukraine. They've been reporting for almost 30 years now.
And FYI, the USAid funds have been cancelled for all independent media in Ukraine.
Oh shit, this guy again.
Also for someone who's "served in the Canadian military" I'm surprised you don't know enough to look at the territorial maps that are updated constantly via drone footage and geo location data.
No, they are not.
Trump is ditching them because they can’t win, and he doesnt want to carry a loser.
Harsh, unjust, but true.
Trump is ditching them because he's Putin's removed, no other reason. Regardless of Ukraine's actual chances, Trump is not any sort of serious gauge of the situation. He has the approximate strategic understanding of a particularly inbred aristocrat's particularly inbred toy dog.
One side has resorted to donkeys for logistics and importing North Korean footsoldiers.
Yeah, sounds like they're winning /s
Hey, they took a wheat field last week!! Only 17.000 losses and a hundred tanks!
/s (almost not sarcastic as that's actually how it goes)
Russia is not only startung to crumble militarily but also economically and they are already over as a world power.
You're completely delusional if you think Trump is ditching them for that reason. They could be winning completely and he'd still ditch them. He's in bed with putin. That's why he's ditching them.
Nah, Trump has a lot of experience carrying losers. Ukrainians are not suckers or crooks - that's the actual reason.
They can't win? Why not? Russia does not have much left. We are already at the point of buggies, motorcycles and straight up walking to the front line. Oh and donkeys, that's where they are.
Lol if you think Trump has any clue about military standing of anyone.
Trump's ditching them because he's got Putin's arm so deep up his arse he can taste his deodorant.
I mean if you're going to do the whole "bro I'm just telling it like is" play, then actually do it. If he drops support it's simply because he's not getting anything out it. Dude is simple as fuck - transactional.
