64% of Americans say they wouldn’t support Trump: poll
A majority of Americans say they wouldn't support former President Trump, new polling shows, even as he remains the overwhelming favorite among Republicans.
That is embarrassingly low.
Sub 20% turn out for under 30's in TX is more embarrassing.
Well, but it's progress, right?
You're saying that about a population that literally voted this guy into office just a few years ago.
If people haven't realized how dumb our society is after that, there's not much hope.
The guy attempted a coup. He should be on trial for his life right now... and still 30+% of Americans might support him.
it's 30% if you only read the title, at the end of the article it says:
Two other polls released this week show President Joe Biden and Trump competitive in a 2024 matchup, with Biden edging Trump by just a point in surveys from Marist and Quinnipiac.
unless you check how they conducted the poll, you don't know if either one is correct.
was it made in an university campus or at the exit of an NRA convention? those will give you wildly different results.
The two claims are not in conflict. Election polls account for propensity to vote.
The 36% will turn out to vote. It will be an uphill struggle for the Dems to get turnout high enough to defeat them.
But the non-fash media will smugly proclaim him defeated anyway, helping to depress turnout enough that he wins. Again.
Dangerous times.
For anyone wondering here are the two polls:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/trumps-indictments-2024/
Data for it: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202308151349.pdf
"This survey of 1,220 adults was conducted August 11th through August 14th, 2023 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online"
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08162023_usos65.pdf
"Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-took-a-long-time-for-republicans-to-abandon-nixon/
When the House of Representatives voted in February 1974 to give the House Judiciary Committee subpoena power to investigate Nixon, it did not have the weight of public opinion behind it. According to a poll conducted by Gallup just days before the vote, only 38 percent of Americans were in favor of impeachment. And although a solid majority of Americans did eventually come to support impeachment, that moment didn’t arrive until quite late in the game.
He's a real estate developer rebel for the workin' man
I guess that's a good thing, but that % should be way higher for someone that committed treason, among numerous other crimes (as well as being just a terrible person in general.)
Something like 1/3 of the country is so deeply republican as to be a total loss. This % is pretty fucking solid.
Complete and utter indoctrination that's been heavily aimed at that demographic for the last three decades, at least.
There's a Mitt Romney 37% joke in there somewhere
But yeah. It's a terrible truth
But he's hurting the right people!
Down ballot Republicans!
treason is part of their heritage
36% is enough to elect, if they all vote.
Not to mention they get up to 3x electoral college voting power depending on how empty their state is.
Have you ever participated in one of these polls? I haven't. None of my friends have. Who are they polling?
I'm not American, but my wife used to be in these pills here. I think it started with like music polls, have you hear this song in the last week in the radio etc. Later on it was TV, product placement in supermarkets, news events, local, state and federal elections.
Half the time she admitted she had nfi what they were talking about so just made shit up so the call ended quickly and she got whatever payment/reward they were giving out.
There have definitely been periods when polls were quite skewed because they were conducted by phone and they over-represented people with landlines. I guess because it’s harder to get a “phone book” of cell numbers. This skewed actual outcomes of the polls.
I think they still have similar issues. They probably underrepresent people who change phones often or just don’t use the telephone to communicate. Sometimes they’re conducted online and recruited over email. There are all different ways that that can skew more to one type of person.
And when they say they have such and such a confidence interval, that does not mean they are that confident they’ve controlled for all the biases. It’s just simple statistics math about sample sizes.
I think we have seen very clearly in recent presidential elections how unreliable polls are. Not only do people answer them differently than they fill out ballots, there just isn’t a perfect way to be sure you’re polling people who will actually vote.
Yeah, screw that. Don't trust polls, vote like your democracy and your life depend on it.
....becuase they very much may
May??
It literally does at this point.
Other way to read this headline:
36% of Americans are equal parts moronic and clinically insane
74 million people voted for him in 2020...which is about 22% of the population of the US in 2020. Now 36% would support him. I realize the two numbers aren't directly comparable because only 67% of the people who could vote in 2020 did (and that was the highest it has been since 1980), but it's still not a great feeling.
Yep we need mental health funding. It's still a ridiculous % given how crappy our voting system is.
Fucking psychopaths
I feel like ~1 in 3 people being selfish assholes kind of checks out, though. It's a trend I really noticed during Covid.
So 36% of Americans are fucking dumb. Which is lower than I would've guessed.
Been the same for 6 years. Even damn poll - he’s always hovering around that number no matter how hard he’s fucking up.
A lot of people really believe that Trump, the man who puts his name on everything, is a selfless martyr. Not a wealthy grifter looking for new suckers willing to line his pockets with cash.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” - George Carlin
This is why we need ranked choice voting. The extremists would never win if we did.
We also wouldn’t be limited to choosing from exactly two choices if we want our vote to impact the election.
And the Democrats fight against it, because they are just as much part of the anti-democratic systems as the outright fascists.
At this point I think 36% of Americans are just trolling
no worries mate, luckily the US election system does not have a flaw in it that technically allows 23% of voters to decide the presidency
Having an election system where the majority of the votes doesn't win is blatantly undemocratic and downright insane. As evidenced by the last two times that happened in the US.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but there are absolutely that mouth breathers in the US. A few months ago I drove by a fucking Trump rally that is held weekly out in some rural parking lot in Washington State, sans Trump.
I have two neighbors with a let's go Brandon banner plaster to the front of their house. Another guy ran for city council on a platform to mandate all teachers to carry AR-15s at school. There's a lot of bananas bullshit out there still. These people believe that the United States is a failing state and the only way to save it is to kill liberals.
I was curious about who the 64% of Americans are, because I've never done a poll in my life. This is what I found:
NORC gathers data for the polls through its probability-based AmeriSpeak® Panel, a breakthrough survey approach that achieves an industry-leading response rate and includes difficult-to-reach demographic groups, such as rural and low-income households.
For AmeriSpeak's Omnibus survey, 1,000 nationally representative adults age 18 and older are drawn from the AmeriSpeak Panel and are interviewed online and by phone.
The people that are drawn from the panel are all preregistered. So these people sign up, and are asked questions every month. The same people. Every month. Then they do some sort of probability math on those numbers and run it as a news story.
That's how polls work. I'm not sure if you genuinely don't know, but that's just how they are done.
You can very accurately extrapolate data on the entire population with just 1000 participants. The flaw is in geography distribution, population distribution, willingness to poll, and other types of sample bias, but if they account for those then that's perfectly valid.
The bigger problem is that a large number of the remaining 36% will support him at all cost. (that last part is extremely important)
Those people see this as a WAR.
While everyone else is busy making some funny meme or writing a snarky comment on Twitter, those people are prepping for war. Radicalizing our youth. Stockpiling guns. Getting ready for a fight.
They see it as a war because they are finding themselves (and their ideals) in the minority and feel their voice is being taken away. I've heard those sentiments directly from their mouths. From my perspective, the problem is that instead of rallying being some other GOP candidate, they've decided to back the one who used possible criminal tactics like fake electors to ignore the peoples votes and remain in power. Something that in my opinion should amount to treason. We're finding ourselves in a shitty situation now. Stuck between a nice old man who's cognitive ability is fading and a man starving for authoritarian power and willing to take it at all cost. I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm curious to see if 2020 was the beginning of the full collapse of the Republican party and what will rise in it's ashes. A 3 party system?
No way the US process allows for a stable 3 serious parties.
I predict the GOP falls, and the DNC splits into two parties: the establishment free-market capitalists who bill themselves as the "common sense" party, and the progressives.
GOP will absorb into establishment DNC, lose the outright homophobia and fascism and fall back to the quiet dog whistles, just enough to keep the old GOP base voting for them against the progressives.
They see it as a war because they are finding themselves (and their ideals) in the minority and feel their voice is being taken away.
Possibly because their ideals suck. Pretty much every conservative idea is a bad one.
I hope a 3 party system doesn't form. That would effectively mean the DNC would win every election. Which sounds great for exactly one election cycle, after that not so much. Power breeds corruption.
The better alternative is for the GOP to gets its act together and start trying to win elections by policy and running stuff by data. We need two functional parties and right now we have one that sorta works and the other that is eating horse dewormer.
I've always wondered what would happen if we got a gun loving liberal that waves a bible around. Is it enough?
in the mid-west this is almost required if you want to win any election, regardless of party.
No. Manchin is outspokenly pro-coal, but the conservative media has convinced most the the pro-coal people in WV he is anti-coal, and he's very likely to lose the next election. Conservative media is very good at controlling the narrative and propagandizing. We are in a post-truth age for a significant proportion of the population.
Yosemite Sam's pot smoking LGBTQ liberal cousin who supports right to repair and socialized healthcare as GOD GIVEN RIGHTS?!
Sign me UUUUP!!!
Now if only someone would do something about the gerrymandering
Wisconsin has entered the chat.
the fact that there are about 100 million Americans who didn't say they wouldn't support Trump says a lot about the state of America
Just a reminder that Republicans have won the popular vote once in the last 30 years, despite holding office for 12 of them.
What a majority of people want doesn't really matter in our system.
Should be higher. People should be aware of not only his crimes, but the buckets of allegations that are eerily similar.
How many will turn out to vote though?
I can sit on my couch all day disapproving Trump, but if I don't cast a ballot then my opinion doesn't count for much.
We can only hope that these 64% will actually cast their vote when it counts.
Which still implies there are 36% of the American voters with a room temperature IQ - if measured in °C.
Somebody's gotta fill out the left half of the bell curve
Well, yes, but 36%, that far down?
Thats still dangerous, here in hungary, orban (trump's comrade) got about 33% of voters, yet he has 2/3 of delegates, which means total control, as we have a fokd up electoral system, and the opposition votes are stayed home. Meanwhile hungary have skyhigh, record high inflation, budget cuts, tax raises, the national currency value is abysmal, and the corruption is visible from the Moon...
That's lower than it should be.
Now if we can just make sure those 64% actually go vote that would be nice.
The poll of 1,165 adults was conducted Aug. 10-14 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
That shouldn't be at the end of the article after I had to click on a separate article. Poor journalistic practices.
Poor journalistic practices
welcome to modern journalism
If your point is that it's a small sample, you're in for a surprise - that's about all you need to estimate something within about 3% for the US population. If they're doing stratification and such it might be even more efficient than that.
Sample size isn't the problem, claiming 0.0000035% applies to the other 99.9999965% is one however. All they need to do is add 'surveyed' after Americans and there would be no problem.
As dismayingly low as that appears, I think more or less as good as it’s gonna get for a while. Between Fox, Trump’s enablers/sycophants, and the man himself, they’ve been able to pretty much enrapture the lowest third of the bell curve, and it’s gonna take a while for that to pass - if it ever does.
If only we had actual "one person, one vote" elections in the U.S. Instead we have a skewed system where rural and southern areas have more weight than coastal urban areas due to how the electoral college is distributed. It has been common for the popular vote to be opposite to the determined vote for president.
"36% of Americans think a violent, criminal, rapist dictator is acceptable."
Now be fair. Most of that 36% don't think at all.
Didnt you know? As long as he hurts the right people, its okay.
They think it is the best thing to ever have happened
I wonder how many of that 64% will actually vote?
Roughly half...
I’ve noticed seemingly regardless of any instances, in multiple time periods and countries there’s always 30% of the public that supports the absolute worst people/policies.
This syncs up with the 30% who didn't understand the question or wanted to jerk around the poller.
That's bell curves at work.
I'd never vote for Trump, but i'm not really thrilled to vote for Biden either. I think both options suck.
Since there is no other option we'll end up with Biden again probably, just depends how much power hate and fear has nowadays.
I'm in Massachusetts so voting blue doesn't mean anything in the presidential race. With the divide between conservative and liberal getting worse and worse I wonder how the battleground states will swing this time around.
Please tell me you're gonna vote anyways
You don't just vote for a president. It's not presidential election day, it's voting day. The presidential vote is worthless but the rest isn't.
The primaries are where most of the magic happens too.
Most people ignore state and local positions but those greatly influence real world consequences. Federal law changes at a glacial pace due to all the bullshit. State stuff happens and takes effect usually within a couple of years here without a flip flop every 8 years. So yes, i'll be voting.
Vote Democrat straight ticket, voting blue means everything, every where, every single fucking time. It's incredible people still don't appreciate this after points to literally everything
I assume the guy was referring to the electoral college. Massachusetts votes overwhelmingly blue, so after we collect all the electoral votes, the rest of us are just icing on that cake
I’ve been voting blue for over twenty years and gestures to everything. Maybe voting isn’t enough.
This 3 foot pile of dog shit in my living room is really disgusting and I don't like it one bit. On the other hand it was kinda disorganized in here before the dog shit and that was kinda sucky too.
Meaningless poll because the popular vote doesn't determine who becomes president. What matters is what percentage of the votes he gets in swing states.
They broke it out as 53% wouldn't support him if he's the GOP nominee, and another 11% wouldn't support him in November 2024.
...what's the difference between those two things?
Yeah, that confused me as well. I had to read that 3 times to figure out the distinction.
53% of Americans say they would definitely not support him if he’s the GOP nominee, and another 11% say they probably would not back him in November 2024.
"the GOP nominee" and "in November 2024" both refer to the same thing, but the phrasing change distracts from the definitely/probably thing.
Boy 53% definitely would not support is so bad for him. RCP has the average of polls at 44.4% Biden, 44% Trump, but if 53% definitely would not support Trump then he can only improve by 3 points at most and he'd have to rely on a 3rd party to get the vast majority of the remaining 9% of the electorate? That is a big ask.
I suppose in the event that Trump runs on a different platform? He is a bit soggy like that
I recall the polls by mainstream media saying that Trump stands no chance just before he became POTUS.
No chance to win the popular vote. Which was correct, but irrelevant.
I dunno. It's a long time before the finals, and in case of USA, one dramatic debate or a last-second revelation might shift the voters towards different candidate...
538.com gave him a 25% chance of winning. His win was a horrible shock, but it shouldn't have been a surprise.
While this is very heartening to read, here's some fun American political numbers games for you :
Population of North Dakota: 780 Thousand souls
Population of California: 40 Million souls
both North Dakota and California are entitled to exactly 2 Senators each to represent their interests equally
As we've seen in plenty of Presidential elections since 2000 it matter where the votes are cast, and in what concentration, opposed to how many overall votes got towards any particular Presidential candidate
Research the bullshit the oligarchy pulled to get ND to be made a state. They had to rewrite a shit load of laws and ended up with, I think, 10 new senators rather than the two they should have gotten for the Dakota territory.
That fuckery is still all the way up our ass to this day.
Polls are pointless. Haven’t we learned anything for this nonsense?
Does not matter. Those remaining 36% are located in strategic places to make up for majority of the land mass - aka electoral college - to bring back Cheeto
National polls have little value since that isn't how President is Voted for. You need by State weighted by Electoral Votes.
How many of them actually vote?
Now subtract the people who claim they wouldn't support Trump from that number and you're back around 2016 numbers.
That is a good number to see.
36% is yuge
The answer to trump isn't a right winger responsible for mass incarceration of black people masquerading as progressive expanding the military industrial complex and not supporting workers unions.
192 millions US citizens have replied to this poll ???
I'll take it a step further and not support anyone in dc. There's not an honest person to be found in politics.