Skip Navigation
Remote View
news @hexbear.net
SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him] @hexbear.net

Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 3rd to November 9th, 2025 - The 47th ASEAN Summit + Trump and Xi's Deal

Image is sourced from this article depicting the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit, which took place at the same time as the 47th ASEAN Summit.

Last week concluded the 47th summit of ASEAN in Malaysia as well as a swathe of concurrent summits surrounding ASEAN. For those unfamiliar, formally, China is not a member of ASEAN, but is part of the ASEAN Plus Three (as part of the "Three", alongside Japan and Occupied Southern Korea). And while not really ASEAN, there is also a yet wider organization, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which tacks on Australia and New Zealand to the group of countries that are currently in ASEAN (which is the single largest trade bloc on the planet). At the summit, Timor-Leste was officially introduced into ASEAN, making it the 11th country to do and the first since Cambodia in 1999.

Many important figures throughout Asia, as well as Trump, Ramaphosa, and Lula, attended the event. As you can imagine, Trump's appearance was not exactly positive - signing four rather coerced bilateral deals there, including with Malaysia, which forced those countries to buy American goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump's high tariff regime. The US is currently in a bit of a panic due to China restricting access to rare earths, a critical component of many weapons technologies (and electronics in general) and is looking around for countries to help supply them. After the summit, the US and China signed a deal related to tariffs and rare earths, but it seems very unlikely that this is the end of the saga; the US politically, economically, and militarily cannot tolerate China's existence as a sovereign actor and will try to overcome them until the American Empire topples.

Meanwhile, China did as they ordinarily do, and urged higher regional integration and trade without high tariffs, as well as adherence to the Global Governance Initiative (which, as we here never tire of noting, is an interesting thing to try and encourage while the US only more feverishly violates the sovereignty of nations everywhere). One hopes they're supplying a bit more than just speeches to Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond, as the US prepares to start bombing.

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

:::

710 comments

  • Complete breakdown of the 2025 Iraqi Parliamentary Elections

    Bismillah

    We mustn’t forget that this place started as an offshoot of a certain subreddit that was named r/ChapoTrapHouse, a place that Islamic explorer Qathib Al Kabir visited in 1441 AH. He wrote this in his memoirs:

    I also saw the Chapos. They had come to post and had disembarked upon the front page of Reddit. Never have I seen minds so convinced of their own dialectical perfection. They’re fair, of average stature, they wear neither suits nor ties, and their main source of illumination is their triple monitors. Every man wears a hoodie that covers half his dignity, so that one arm may clutch a vape.

    They carry irony, memes, and citations to Lenin and Wikipedia, and always have them to hand. They wield podcast microphones of formidable make, forged in the fires of struggle sessions. They speak of electoralism with a fervor both mocking and sincere.

    Yet I beheld among them a curious contradiction, they sin greatly by committing to electoralism, whispering of “lesser evils” and “harm reduction” as if these were sacraments. When such weakness overcomes them, they hasten to atone. They do this not by prayer, but by posting a certain picture of Lenin, his gaze stern yet forgiving, accompanied by words of repentance and a number of ironic upvotes. Thus their consciences are cleansed, and they return once more to the holy work of posting.

    The Travels of Qathib Al Kabir, p.69.

    Here we are in 2025, and I’m writing a mega post on the Iraqi Parliamentary Elections that are set to be held on November 11th. Call this a homage to Chapo’s electoral past, but I’m a nerd, you’re all nerds, so let’s just jump into it.

    ::: spoiler Section 2 - Breakdown of Parties and Candidates by Region

    I initially broke down this by governorate, but it became too cluttered. I know my long ass tables are popular within megathread circles, but you’re getting wide boi tables that will break the thread on mobile instead of many long tables.

    I have divided the country into four regions to make it easier for everyone. Region 1 is Baghdad, the mixed capital with a fat number of seats. Region 2 is the Shia-majority South (Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyya, Wasit), because the exact same parties are running in pretty much every governorate here. Region 3 is Sunni Arab-majority governorates (Anbar, Diyala, Nineveh, Saladin), because again it looks kinda similar here, but with a little twist in Diyala and Nineveh, as we have significant Kurdish and Shia minorities in those governorates. Region 4 is Kurdish-majority governorates (Duhok, Erbil, Kirkuk, Sulaymaniyah), similar parties in all governorates, with an important Arab + Turkmen minority in Kirkuk.

    PART TWO FOLLOWS IN COMMENTS

      • ::: spoiler Section 2 - Sunni Regions

        Party Important candidates Estimated seats in whole Iraq Political positions Personal commentary
        Taqaddum (Progress) Haibat Al Halbusi, Muzahim Al Khayyat, Mohammed Tamim 35-45 Sunni, Secularism, Economic Liberalism, Pro-Gulf Mohammed Al Halbusi’s cousin Haibat is the main guy here in Anbar. Taqaddum were already close to a clean sweep last elections in Anbar, and I expect a similar performance with how Halbusi’s popularity has exploded in Baghdad and Anbar. They have a strong candidate in known surgeon and politician Al Khayyat in Nineveh. They will also dominate the Sunni Arab vote in Kirkuk, with former minister Tamim in a leading role there.
        Azem (Determination) Sinan Al Nujayfi, Muthanna Al Samaraei 15-20 Sunni Islamists, Pro-Turkey, Tribal politics Sinan is the heir to the disgraced Nujayfi family that ruled Nineveh around the time of the ISIS capture of Mosul. He seems like a chill guy though and is generally liked in Nineveh. Muthanna Al Samaraei is extremely annoying, but he’s a skilled politician and has managed to gather lots of support for Azem in Saladin province. Azem have basically given up on Anbar, with a very weak list there.
        Minor Parties in Saladin Ahmed Al Jubori (spiritual leader) 1-3 Mostly tribal politics and Anti-Iran stances There are lots of smaller parties that are running just in Saladin. The region was very damaged by ISIS, so lots of random movements have sprung up with isolationist stances. They’re focused on agricultural reforms and limiting harassment by some PMU elements who sometimes act in a sectarian manner towards local Sunnis. Tribal politics in Saladin are dominated by the Jubori clan, so literally half of the candidates in these smaller parties are Juboris.
        Shia Parties in Diyala and Nineveh - 5-10-ish (in these provinces only) Shia Islamism, Pro-Iran, PMU-aligned A significant Shia minority exists in Diyala and Nineveh, so several seats will go to them. Those seats will mostly go to Badr in Diyala, and Sadiqoun in Nineveh. Most Shias in Nineveh are actually Turkmen and not Arab, but they vote after religious lines and not ethnic lines like the Turkmen of Kirkuk. Sudani’s party are also running in Nineveh and they’ll get a few seats just off name recognition.
        Kurdish Parties in Nineveh - 10-13 (Nineveh only) Kurdish interests in Nineveh Kurds are the largest group in Nineveh after Sunni Arabs, so their parties usually get a significant number of seats. Most seats will go to the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by the good old Barzani family. The Kurdish opposition led by the New Generation movement (more on them later) might snatch one or two seats, and the PUK led by the Talabani clan might also snatch a few seats.
        Minority seats in Nineveh Waad Qado (Shabak), Rayan Al Kiladani (Christian) 3 (Nineveh only) Pro-PMU? I’m just writing this section to talk about my favourite Iraqi character when writing this. I’m talking about Mr Rayan Al Kildani (literally Ryan the Chaldean). He’s a Christian dude from a Christian village in the mountains, but he’s somehow one of the most important guys in the Shia militia PMU landscape, which is insane. He’s somehow more pro-Iran than the strongest Shia Islamist from Najaf, and local Christians also mostly hate him because he keeps dragging his endangered religious group into massive regional disputes. He has also completely co-opted the Christian minority seats by encouraging Shias in Baghdad and Nineveh to vote for his candidates. Waad Qado is the budget version of him, but for Shabaks.

        Summary Sunni regions + Sunni Arabs in Kirkuk: Taqaddum = 25-30 seats, Azem 10-15 seats, Shia parties = 5-10, Kurdish Parties = 10, Minorities + independents + smaller parties = 10-15.

        :::

        ::: spoiler Section 2 - Kurdistan Region + Kirkuk

        Party Important candidates Estimated seats in whole Iraq Political positions Personal commentary
        Kurdistan Democratic Party Rebwar Hadi, (Masoud & Masrour Barzani, spiritual leaders) 25-35 Kurdish separatism, liberal economic policies If there’s anything that is 100% guaranteed every election, it’s that Kurds will with full loyalty vote for Barzani’s party in Erbil, Duhok and the Kurdish parts of Nineveh. Their list of candidates is weaker than usual this time, as a new generation of Barzani loyalists is taking over the Party, but they’ll get their 30-ish seats as usual.
        Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Rebwar Taha, (Bafel Talabani, spiritual leader) 15-20 Kurdish Nationalism, Social Democracy The PUK led by the eternal Jalal Talabani’s son Bafel have just ended their biggest internal power struggle since their founding, with Bafel winning over his cousin Lahur Talabani. The PUK have excellent relations with the Federal government in Baghdad and with Iran, which is why the PUK candidate for President of Iraq has won twice in a row now. Their main candidate Rebwar Taha is the governor of Kirkuk, and he’s quite popular even with Arabs, so they’ll dominate the Kurdish vote in Kirkuk.
        New Generation Sirwe Abdulwahid 5-10 Liberalism, Secularism, Pro-Baghdad A new kind of Kurdish party, they don’t really care about Kurdish nationalism. Businessman Shaswar is Sirwe’s younger brother and the main backer of the party. They’re quite popular within youth circles in Sulaymaniyah especially, mainly due to opposing both the Barzani and the Talabani clans. Sirwe is one of the most popular female politicians in the whole country and could be a candidate for the presidency. Shaswar is currently in prison and Sirwe is banned from the Kurdistan region, so she operates from Baghdad.
        All other Kurdish parties Ali Bapir, Ali Hama Saleh 1-3 Everything from communists to jihadists. Good luck and have some fun
        Turkmens in Kirkuk Arshad Al Salihi, Ghareeb Askar 1-3 Some pro-Turkey, some pro-Baghdad There are like 10 Turkmens left in the country who haven’t immigrated to Turkey, and they all hate each other. Relations in Kirkuk between Arabs and Kurds in Kirkuk are finally good, so the Turkmen find a way to feel left out and start fighting everyone. Al Salihi is the spiritual leader of most Turkmen, and he held a speech a few days ago where he declared the Kirkuk is Turkey, so it’s a hopeless situation out there tbh.

        :::

    • Thank you so much for all this work comrade, always reliable and informative.

    • Rayan Al Kildani

      Is this the guy that founded the Babylon Brigades to fight against ISIS, and then got sanctioned by the US because of ties to the Popular Mobilisation Forces and video emerged of him cutting someone's ear off? Certainly a character.

      Al Mada is reporting that the US is behind decisions to try remove the Babylon Brigades from Hamdaniya district.

      • That's the guy. What an insane character, but all his contradictions have left an overall positive effect on Christian visibility in the country. I mostly don't agree with him and he's definitely more of a mafia leader than an actual politician, but I respect the pure grind mentality in getting a pretty oversized chair at the table of power in Iraq. Chaldeans are a minority within a minority, but he's up there with the big boys, being involved even more than most Sunnis and Kurds in making the big decisions in the country.

    • Knowing next to nothing of Iraqi politics previously, I found this effortpost easy to read and highly informative. I wish the people of Iraq good luck with finding a working coalition government.

    • The chuds have "Big Balls". The left has "LargePenis". This is dialectics.

    • Just want to say that your insight into the various countries of Western Asia is incredibly appreciated. I occassionally check your account to see if you've posted, just because I find your writing interesting.

  • Not particularly news but whatever, been wandering around China for the past week and it's been very interesting. Far more military propoganda than last time I was here a few years ago. This old ~70 year old Chinese woman next to me on the plane watched a two hour documentary on the Chinese navy. Ads on the metro remind people not to post pictures on social media if they include military movements in them. Tons of recruitment posters everywhere. One of my friends took me to the most enormous subway station I've ever seen in Shenzhen that was 90% empty space and she's convinced it was built as a bomb shelter first and station second. Feels like a society gearing up for war. Hope it doesn't come to that but glad it feels like the CPC is more than ready for it if it does.

    On a lighter note people now wear historical dress walking around and it's delightful. Such colorful outfits are so cool. And Alipay added an option to use foreign credit cards which is amazing, life here without Wechat and Alipay is actually impossible. Insane that these are private companies and not state run services but alas, such is the Chinese way. Also I regret to inform you that without a VPN Hexbear seems blocked, so I guess we've been deemed liberals.

  • A Muslim man becoming the mayor of NYC on the day that Dick Cheney dies. You can't convince me that we're not living in a carefully crafted simulation.

  • I know a lot of people are (rightfully) shitting PPB on Dick Cheney finally kicking the bucket, but his death has unfortunately completely overshadowed another prominent politician who coincidentally died on the same day: Kim Yong-nam.

    I have yet to see anyone on Hexbear mention this, so I thought I'd bring it up here.

    Who was Kim Yong-nam? He was a senior-level DPRK politician who served many positions in the WPK, but most notably was the former Minister of Foreign Affairs and President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, which is basically the DPRK equivalent of their head of state. The latter title in particular, Kim held for two decades until his retirement in 2019. He was considered one of the last OG revolutionary statesmen who served the newly created DPRK in Kim Il-sung's time, and was old enough to have witnessed the horrors of Japanese colonization, WWII and the Korean War. There are conflicting accounts on his childhood history, but according to his official state biography he was born in Pyongyang back when Korea was still occupied by the Empire of Japan. He often acted as a senior diplomat on behalf of Kim Jong-un and his father Kim Jong-il for various cross-cultural exchanges and multilateral negotiations, most notably he went to the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympic Games in Occupied Korea, and has met three former ROK Presidents.

    Kim Yong-nam passed away at the ripe old age of 97. May he rest in power.

  • Regular day under US cultural/media/economic hegemony:

    All Muslims are terrorists except for al Qaeda which is the legitimate government of Syria. In the UK now Al Qaeda Emir Joolani who was just this week removed from terrorist list but Pal Action is still proscribed.

    Bashar al Assad was a comically corrupt supervising straight out of a marvel film and if you disagree then you are an "authoritarian" "axis of resistance ideologue" who is "denying atrocities." Sednaya prison was the worst thing imaginable and deserved global multilingual media attention but Sisi's dungeons with pro-Palestine demonstrators and al Saud's significant increase in death penalty including minors (in some cases over social media posts!) are not even worth mentioning at all.

    Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq are "Iranian power projection" but two decades of US occupation and its naked threats against the Iraqi government is "US influence".

    Democratically elected president of Venezuela Nicholas Maduro is a "dictator" who must be overthrown but don't ask why the US refuses to participate in UN human rights reports.

  • I like how NATO leftists are suddenly bringing up how brutal Venezuela is with links to HRW and Wikipedia. There’s also the occasional “my gf/wife/ partner(it’s always a woman) is Venezuelan and says they suck”

    Fucking jokes.

    Edit: congrats to Mamdani though. I wish I could see Cuomo’s sagging jowls hanging to the side of his open mouth as he stares in disbelief at the results showing his loss.

    • I’ve run into “I’m from a family of Russian immigrants who escaped brutal communist repression” types, mostly nepo-baby dipshits in the DC area. The repression was when their Russian aristocrat great-grandpappy was forced to downsize from 10 mansions to 5 and his private chef cooked the eggs wrong on his first class trip to the US.

      Even ignoring that, it’s still amazing how Amerikkkan crackers think the fact that their great-great grandparents who died 80 years before they were born lived in X country (that they’ve never set foot in) until age 5 somehow gives them the inherent authority to talk about it as if they have any more connection to the “mother country” than any random asshole on the street. They unironically believe in genetic memory through blood quantum percentages. Crackers refuse to shut the fuck up about muh ancestry

      “I’m 18.269% Scottish 15.225% Belgian and 152.6825% Lithuanian” no the fuck you’re not, you’re an Amerikkkan hog that cosplays as a Euro once a year by making shitty Americanized “traditional dishes” that you googled the night before making

    • Hey, in my experience it's been Catholic priests from Venezuela (or who were in the country for some time) who say it's horrible. Men can be gusanos too

  • https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/venezuelan-su30mk2-mach3-patrols

    Think the redirection of the eye of sauron towards Nigeria has to do with the Venezuelan military bringing out the teeth and threatening to sink u.s navy ships?

    Fucking baller if that's the case

    • Trump's attention flitting towards Nigeria isn't a sign of some broader withdrawal from the Caribbean. The neocon eye of sauron has been pointed at Venezuela for more than a decade. It's not going to stop over the whims of one man. Rubio's personal actions are a much better proxy for how badly the neocons want to do a war in the western hemisphere.

      Air launched antiship missiles are fraught. I sincerely doubt Venezuela will shoot first, so their airframes are vulnerable to any opening salvo from the US. American ISR and F35s and formidable against Venezuelan fighters, regardless of how finite they are.

    • Venezuela is a very hard target for military invasion on many levels. The US military, meanwhile, is a cowardly force that only wants easy pickings. If Venezuela keeps the US on their toes and makes them second guess serious action, the machine is going to turn its gaze elsewhere. But I don't think Nigeria is going to be much easier, given its gargantuan population. There's 8x as many Nigerians as Venezuelans and Africa is not easy terrain for large scale imperial operations.

      • There's 8x as many Nigerians as Venezuelans and Africa is not easy terrain for large scale imperial operations.

        The key important issue is the revolutionary militancy of the people to bleed the invaders of their lands dry at all costs. The Venezuelan people are demonstrating their willingness to fight, I don't know about thr Nigerian people on the other hand.

      • If the US operate in Nigeria, I imagine it will be with Nigerian government support against ISIS and Al Qaeda offshoots like Boko Haram and JNIM respectively. All this talk about Nigeria started after JNIMs first attack on Nigerian soil a few days ago. It seems that JNIM has gone beyond threatening the AES states (Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali) and are starting offensive operations in other nations, they are going too far now. JNIM is also set to receive a $50 million ransom from the UAE for some hostages or something ridiculous. That would fund them for years.

    • I do wonder if they drank too much of their own kool aid and thought they "need only kick in the door to collapse the whole rotten structure." The successful mass mobilization and Russian weapon supplies may indeed have given them second thoughts. After everything that has happened over the past few years, I doubt the US can afford a whole new sustained war.

      It's very possible that they will still try to kidnap or murder Maduro, though. He is one of the main things holding the revolution together, and the line of succession is questionable.

      • It's very possible that they will still try to kidnap or murder Maduro, though. He is one of the main things holding the revolution together, and the line of succession is questionable.

        I agree the US would absolutely attempt that, but I'm not at all confident Maduro is "holding the revolution together". He's an important and capable leader, but he's used that leadership to ground the revolution deeply across Venezuelan society, especially with the huge project of commune building.

    • I do wonder if there's any comparisons that can be made between Yemen and Venezuela, in terms of predicting how a conflict would go

      Because on paper, Yemen is very disadvantaged compared to the US (and indeed can only get missiles through to the US navy by depleting interceptors first) but in practice has been a monumental thorn in the US's side when trying to reassert control over the Red Sea; merely bombing Yemen hasn't seemed to achieve much either militarily or politically, and certainly not compared to the material costs in terms of manpower and drones and interceptor missiles and the constant expensive maintenance that bombing raids require (as we all know, money itself is no object to American imperialists, but the materials and time to manufacture the weapons certainly matters)

      Does Venezuela have any kind of comparable missile or mass drone production capable of engaging in gradual attrition against the US, or would such an attritional war only really arise if the US tries to put boots on the ground (or hires boots inside Venezuela) and then the socialist militias begin resistance operations? I'm assuming here that the Venezuelan air fleet would be taken out fairly quickly, and optimistically would "only" take out a ship or two before no longer being a threat (and indeed might not take out anything at all), which seems like a good assumption to me but I guess depends on what exactly Russia and China decide to do and send them.

      • A key difference is the Yemeni forces operate in a guerilla strategic mode of warfare whereas the Venezuelan forces is organized as conventional forces that operate with conventional strategic methods.

        So as long as the Venezuelan forces can maintain stand-off strategic offensive capabilities to keep u.s air force assets from being in range of penetrating into their air defense network, they can maintain full industrial capacity and continue to receive overseas aid. Nothing short of a sort of "deal" being made to let the u.s strike worthless Venezuelan assets for Trump to save face, to which would be a foolish move, there must be zero nautical water to give for the u.s navy to enter effective striking range of Venezuela. Or else I fully expect the invasion forces to strike first to open air paths into the country then utilize them to fully cripple Venezuela's civilian, industrial, infrastructure, and military capabilities.

        Allowing Americans boots on the ground is the worst-case scenario. The Venezuelan military at all costs must keep u.s forces at sea and outside of their range.

    • I'm just going to copy/paraphrase my comment from the now locked previous megathread. All estimates based on publicly available information.

      Wouldn't say so, Venezuela has had these Kh-31/AS-17 Krypton supersonic anti ship missiles ever since they bought the Su-30. You can find images of Venezuelan Su-30s equipped with Kh-31 from 10+ years ago. Russian military or Wagner technicians may have helped Venezuela restore these capabilities, but they have possessed them for some time.

      Their relatively short range of 40-60 nautical miles(nmi)/70-110km, and dependence on being air launched by Su-30s mean that it's unlikely they'll have any effect on a conflict. At most, Venezuela could score some lucky hits, similar to Argentina in the Falklands war. Though when Argentina did that, they were up against combat air patrols (CAPs) of Harriers. Venezuela is up against F-35B CAPs, a much better aircraft for air to air engagements, supersonic, stealth and already shown to be armed with AIM-120D AMRAAM air to air missiles, with a maximum range of 90-100nmi/160-180km. That's not mentioning the anti aircraft and anti missile capabilities of AEGIS onboard the destroyers and cruisers. SM-6 missiles launched by AEGIS (anti aircraft and anti ship) have a maximum range in excess of 200nmi/370km.

      What Venezuela needs is a longer stick, and an ability to use it after conflict breaks out. The P-270 Moskit (Kh-41) and P-800 Oniks (Kh-61) supersonic anti ship missiles offer significantly more range and can be air launched or ground launched. Kh-41 is said to offer a maximum range between 135-160nmi/250-300km when air launched and flying on a combined high-lo trajectory. Export variants of the Oniks/Kh-61 offer similar maximum ranges and flight profiles. Modernised Russian versions of the Oniks/Kh-61 offer maximum ranges of 320-430nmi/600-800km. A ground launch or lo-lo flight profile will significantly reduce this theoretical maximum range. Though modifying the Su-30s to carry and launch them like Russia's Su-33s can, or transporting missile batteries/ground launch infrastructure alongside the missiles for ground launch, would be a significant task. I don't think the effort will be made, it's quite unlikely. But it is theoretically possible. Ground launched modernised P-800 Oniks would be their best bet here realistically, gives them a long range option not dependent on aircraft. Hezbollah apparently had some export variants of this.

      Su-33/Su-27K with Kh-41 in between the engine intakes/nacelles, and Kh-61 on the weapons trolley:

      Person for scale with a Kh-61, massive missiles, an Su-33 can only carry one Kh-41 or Kh-61 on the centreline:

      For improved anti aircraft capabilities, the Su-30s Mech radars would need to be replaced by the Irbis-E, so they can fire the R-37M active radar guided air to air missiles. Currently they only have the active radar guided R-77 and semi active R-27. There's no point in supplying R-37Ms without a radar replacement, they can fly much further than the Mech radar can see. Again, very unlikely.

    • I sort of hope so for Venezuelans, and am not familiar enough with Nigeria to know what to think. The government there seems happy to accept help, but I've only seen western sources.

      But I think there's a chance this is Trump's last minute distraction before still attacking Venezuela. I'll accept my punishment if proven wrong by time, but I'm not convinced he'd give up that fast. Or be allowed to give up I guess

      • not convinced he'd give up that fast

        I feel the same, and yet this is the same guy that we've all been mocking for years as being mercurial and easily distracted. I guess it's more to do with the world's largest oil reserves under Venezuela providing such a strong material incentive for capital and less to do with Trump himself.

      • I think there are probably very serious and intense debates among military brass and dipshit political leadership about if and how further escalation against Venezuela could be carried out. The US won't bluff, but it can be deterred.

    • Baller indeed, if it's the case. Though I suppose this doesn't preclude war with Venezuela.

      • Very true. It would mean that the strategic command needs to figure out where and how to take out their air fleet alongside their air defense before they can initiate an actual invasion.

        I can only hope they have the radar capabilities from the ruskies to see and nail f35s and f22s so they don't try to do their bullshit air artillery tactic.

    • second

  • Reddit is soyfacing over the Ukrainians flying a flag over Pokrovsk city hall, published by euromaidanpress.com. Honestly, i thought that theory for being the motivation behind the helicopter sorties was too stupid to be believable on first read, but we really do live in the dumbest timeline.

  • Iraqi elections have started today. Members of the army, police, other security organs and also internally displaced refugees are voting today and tomorrow. The actual election day will be on Tuesday. I'll keep you nerds updates with the latest exit polls and general info as it comes up in the upcoming week.

  • Norway’s parliament paused the government’s ethical investing rules. The move will let the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, keep its stakes in companies deemed unethical under the rules, such as Microsoft and Amazon, because of their work for Israel’s government. The fund recently sold its stake in Caterpillar over Israel’s use of its bulldozers in Gaza and the West Bank.

    Would expect nothing less from Nordic so-called social democracy. From this morning's Economist Espresso.

  • Venezuela Repatriates Over 16,000 Migrants, Denounces US Xenophobia and Racism

    Venezuela received 573 repatriated migrants from the United States this week aboard two flights that landed at Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía, La Guaira state.

    This week’s arrivals bring the total number of Venezuelans repatriated from the US since the program resumed in February to 16,040.

    The majority of Venezuelan migrants in the US originally left the country after being impacted by the economic crisis from 2015 to 2020, a situation exacerbated by illegal US sanctions. After being subjected to a widespread smear campaign and incidents of xenophobic violence in the US, which falsely labeled Venezuelan migrants as criminals or mentally ill, the US government initiated a policy of mass detention and deportation. This aggressive approach has targeted migrants, the vast majority of whom have no criminal record and many of whom had initiated legal regularization processes.

    The repatriated citizens were received under the protocols of the Return to the Homeland plan. This comprehensive program, initiated by the government of President Nicolás Maduro in 2018, provides free repatriation for Venezuelans in vulnerable conditions abroad. The program is designed to assist those who have fallen victim to xenophobia and exploitation, ensuring their dignified and safe return to their homeland. Upon arrival, migrants receive immediate support, including healthcare, psychological services, and necessary identification and socioeconomic checks to facilitate a successful reintegration into society.

    A Venezuela undergoing booming economic growth and further along in the process of constructing socialism can make lemonade out of the lemons of US racist immigration policy. These people can return to a homeland in healthier and stronger than when they left and having seen the real horrors of the empire firsthand from a very different perspective. I could see this being a real boon to the country and these migrants.

  • Update on developments in Venezuela:

    The US Air Force and Marines posted a bunch of new photos of F-35 operations, mid air refueling, and pictures of the B-52 operations. F-35 pictures show nothing new, same armaments as before: GBU-54 500lb laser guided JDAMs to hit mobile surface targets, AIM-120D AMRAAM for long range air to air, and AIM-9X on stealthy external pylons for short range air to air.

    The B-52H pictures do show something new though: unlike last time where the bombers flew in a "clean configuration" with no external pylons or targeting pods; this time they flew with the external hardpoints and pylons on both wings (but no weapons/unarmed), and with a Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod FLIR/IRST. This is notable because the external pylons increase the amount of stations for cruise missiles or 1000/2000lb class bombs on the B-52 from 8, to 20. The Sniper ATP also provides reconnaissance capability, notable because of how close the B-52s flew to Venezuela, with the coastline of the Paraguaná Peninsula visible in photos. Videos from 14 years ago show tracking of individual vehicles/cars and individual hotel windows at ranges in excess of 40nmi/75km using the Sniper ATP. So with how close the B-52s flew, they could map out extensive parts of Venezuela's coastline. This has likely been happening already though, with F-35 and P-8A flights, and other reconnaissance aircraft/unmanned aircraft.

    Venezuela have also increased the amount of flyable F-16 fighter aircraft in their possession from 2, to 4 now. A new video of 4 Venezuelan F-16s flying appeared on social media. Doubling the amount of flyable airframes with no access to spare parts or official maintenance from the manufacturer is an impressive feat.

  • An interesting part of lurking so many fash spaces on telegram means getting exposed to some of their thinking on current topics. An interest take I'm seeing in more than one place, including ops that are being carried out on reddit and other spaces is the belief among some of these fash that Mamdani is less dangerous than Hasan and that they think that by pushing Mamdani while smearing Hasan they can push his would-be audience in a softer direction and shrink his influence in the left in the longterm. Their thinking is that by having Mamdani as a thought-leader of a softer left they can push out Hasan into the same kind of fringe Empanada occupies.

  • The drones in Belgium are back, yet again. This time above an airport, nuclear power plant, and nuclear research centre. Belgium requested aid as they've failed to shoot down the drones. Members of the German army were sent to assist in taking them down.

    Just wtf is going on? This isnt like the NJ "drone" flap where its mostly just videos of obvious planes and helicopters. Airspace is being heavily disrupted by drones that can't be jammed by current means that evade pursuers while running for the border when confronted. Belgium is taking it pretty seriously.

    Common explanations so far:

    1. Aliens
    2. Russia
    3. China
    4. The US

    Aliens I'll leave to you to decide on.

    Russia isnt amazingly likely. If they had drones this good they'd be using them. Putin already directly denied it, for whatever that's worth.

    China isnt impossible, but the drones are believed to be pretty damn advanced. If China had it, they wouldn't be using it to disrupt airports and scare Euros. They'd be keeping it close to their chests.

    The angle on the US is that these are basically here to extort protection money. If they can't even stop a bunch of drones, clearly they need to buy more weapon systems from America. I'm leaning toward this being unlikely for the same reason as China, but also the entire American government is 12 now and that's a 12 year olds idea of a good plan.

    The interesting claim in the UFO communities(oh hell yeah we're going there) is that they've been following nukes. The earlier locations, like Lakenheath, are places where the US keeps their bombs. Similarly, its believed they have nukes in Belgium too.

    This further attaches to the UFOs and nukes connection, which is interesting to read about. Just take it with a grain of salt. (Take aaaaall of this with a grain of salt, obviously)

    The drones don't need to be aliens to possibly be surveying nukes. That's also something that China probably already did, because knowing where the nukes are is important.

    The final possibility is that its all made up. The US isnt going for protection money, Belgium is just inventing this to justify increased military spending. I don't think this is likely either because they can just increase military spending and no one really cares.

  • Deterrence might work. WSJ says Trump is hesitating about Venezuela strikes

    https://archive.is/BdJxh

    Trump Expresses Reservations Over Strikes in Venezuela to Top Aides

    Administration is still deciding whether to push Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of power or extract concessions from him

  • Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) managed to shoot down an IL-76 cargo plane belonging to the Sudanese Air Force. Apparently, they used a Chinese anti-aircraft missile supplied to the RSF by the United Arab Emirates. There are reports that people are being buried alive by terrorists from the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces. 62,000 people fled the city of el-Fasher after the arrival of paramilitaries from the Rapid Support Forces, but only 5,000 arrived at a nearby camp. The whereabouts of the rest are unknown. Dozens of children arrived at the site without their parents.

    Young people were found nearby with broken limbs. Of the 70 children who arrived at the settlement, 40 were malnourished. Almost half of Sudan's population is made up of children and preteens (45%), as life expectancy is compromised amid the world's largest war and widespread hunger. The Hague Tribunal is investigating whether the crime of genocide is underway, while the global press and social media ignore the situation.

    • Telegram

  • BRICS payments system now connects to 185 countries

    The BRICS-linked Cross-Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS) has expanded across 185 countries, allowing international payments in Chinese yuan without using the U.S. dollar, according to data from the New Development Bank (NDB).

    Sry I don't know what this crypto-ass news source is, was just the first result that popped up.

    I'd love to hear what our resident economics-heads like @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net and @FuckyWucky@hexbear.net think about this.

    Interesting to see that the BRICS payment went from what was originally going to be a collaboration between the respective countries to now, instead, just using the Yuan. I suspect India, as always, was the weak link in the agreement but that's pure speculation on my part.

    Death to America

    • Obviously a common currency among BRICS would be disastrous, it'll be like the Eurozone but worse. The issue is it places a foreign currency above the country's own sovereign liabilities. In the current system, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan, Russian Ruble are at the top of the hierarchy within their respective countries, there have been times when foreign currencies have seen demand as a way to store savings but for actual consumption you need the domestic currencies. The currencies are also non-convertible (not in the capital control sense, but in the sense the Government doesn't promise anything), you can only purchase foreign currencies using indirect liquidity in the secondary market, the Central Bank/Government doesn't promise anything. If BRICS did a common currency, i.e. all the members replaced national currency with the BRICS one, the BRICS currency would become the top of the pyramid instead state's own money. Each member will be able to issue its own (sometimes widely accepted) liabilities as Greek banks were able to do but the member states can easily go insolvent if the BRICS Central Bank isn't willing to be the lender of last resort, BRICS Bank can also impose conditionalities on members before they get their loans (e.g. the Troika imposing austerity in Greece).

      CIPS is fine and good, but it's a system for clearing payments. It doesn't show where the underlying money is coming from. For example, take India, India exported $1.21B and imported $10.9B from China. So, where did the $9.6B come from? It came from a. it's trade surpluses with other countries (U.S, E.U. mainly) b. Remittances by migrant workers abroad (Gulf and Western nations) c. Capital Inflows (FDI, FPI from Western countries mainly). So, India is able to have a trade deficit with China because of its surplus with other countries. if other countries weren't willing to run capital/current account deficits with India, it simply wouldn't be able to purchase Dollar/Yuan it wants to import from China. CIPS cannot change that since its merely a payment system, not an unconditional lender.

      It is beneficial for net exporting countries to China, e.g. Russia, but most countries run a deficit with China, China on the whole is a net exporter and for every net exporter there must be net importer. For third world countries, obtaining Dollars is easy, you export your goods to the U.S. and get Dollars, same with the EU to a lesser extent. Obtaining Yuan is much more difficult, the way most countries do it is by giving Dollars to Chinese exporters or by using the Dollars to get Yuan in the forex markets.

      China can solve this, it can grant an unconditional line which allows India to import $9.6B worth of Chinese goods without giving China (directly or indirectly) any first world currencies. Chinese exports will still happen but it will accumulate third world currencies instead of first world ones.

      Tldr: CIPS is only a payment clearing/settlement system not a funding system.

710 comments