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Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 27th to November 2nd, 2025 - The War on Health + Further Latin America Escalations

Image is of Venezuela's Maduro and Colombia's Petro walking together at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas in 2022, sourced from this article.

Ordinarily, I avoid straying into the American domestic situation, but the government shutdown appears to be continuing into increasingly harmful territory. If the situation is not resolved, soon tens of millions of Americans will lose food assistance, and already millions of federal employees are furloughed or are working without pay. To those not in the know, this situation has essentially stemmed from the Democrats refusing to sign off on the Republicans' plan to substantially shrink Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, which would eventually result in tens of millions losing healthcare coverage and tens if not hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths.

To be clear, though, the Democrats have not exactly been paragons of healthcare: they not only oppose plans to make affordable healthcare a right (in defiance of wide popular opinion), but also do their part to maximize suffering. Biden's policies during the pandemic ensured at least one million people died, and millions of children lost public healthcare coverage. We may never know the true toll, as the US decided that simply ceasing to report on a problem means that the problem no longer exists.

In other news, over the last couple weeks, the US has expanded their hostility against Venezuela by also including Colombia in their ire, and particularly the left-leaning leader, Petro. Both countries are now experiencing major economic and covert pressure by the US to try and cause regime change. The US has deployed an aircraft carrier to the waters near Venezuela and is conducting a military training operation with Trinidad and Tobago, which Venezuela has warned may be the prelude to the long-awaited attack.

Additionally, the US is attempting to combat Chinese geopolitical interest in central America and the Caribbean by carrying out digital attacks and launching pressure campaigns against Chinese and pro-Chinese countries and organizations. Given China's enormous economic weight, if central America were to break all ties with China, it would be a catastrophe for them; such decisions would only be made by outright compradors, and the resulting economic problems would make their reigns unpopular and, hopefully, brief.

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

:::

855 comments

  • To fully understand the scale of what happened in Rio de Janeiro on the 28th I'd like to refer to the following public utility. It is a map of the territories in the Rio Metro Area that are under control of criminal factions - which is the word used by brazilians to refer to organized crime on the ground, as opposed to gangs, mafias and so on.

    This is a zoomed in portion of the map, centered around Rio city's North Zone or more specifically the Zona da Leopoldina - which is a mixed use, middle to lower class dormitory continuum connecting the international Galeão Airport with the City Center and the affluent South Zone of Rio, where most of tourism lies. The northern black circle is the Penha Complex, the southern black circle refers to the Alemão Complex. Complexes are agglomerations of slums, older housing complexes and the occasional neighborhood which are fully under the control of a criminal faction. The Penha Complex has a population of around 100.000 people, the Alemão Complex is almost 60.000. If you look closely there's one thing between both complexes which is a forested region. That is where most of the extra bodies were found today.

    If you look at the full utility I linked above you'll see a bunch of colors and abbreviations. CV stands for Comando Vermelho or Red Command, which is an older faction originally focused on drug trafficking. TCP and ADA are schisms from Red Command, which follow more or less the same logic only more extreme and less pragmatic in its governance of the occupied populations. The blue colors with the CL and 5M abbreviations refer to Milícias (Militias), criminal groups formed out of police and military personnel and their families in the 90s and early 00s. Each of these factions often go to war with each other for territory and this war has been accelerating over time with the frontier moving from one part of the metro area to the next. Moreover, the leadership of every faction has become relatively young and unstable, increasingly paranoid and more aggressive over time - likely due to the fact that the traditional heads of the factions moved on from the coastal cities and took over the drug trade at the border after the FARC disarmed and the Paraguayan syndicates lost ground.

    I mentioned criminal governance beforehand and I meant it. When you look at the revenues of criminal factions on the ground nowadays the drug trade can reach up to 11% of the money being made. Most of the money comes from taxes extracted from the working poorest: water, electricity, internet, television, natural gas, rent, protection rackets and so on. There are even bootleg transportation apps in some communities of Rio. All in all, this sort of ad-hoc state organization of crime adds up to more than 70 billion dollars a year which for Brazil's economy is massive.

    Where does that leave the Brazilian State in all this? More than 15 years ago when Rio became the centerpiece of a number of international events such as the World Cup and the Olympic games, the State found itself in a pickle. The old modus vivendi it built with the criminal factions was intolerable for capital. The risk was too great. So the state delivered an ultimatum to the factions: we are going to move in, we aren't going to rock the boat all that hard we'll just built police barracks within your territory and you aren't supposed to do anything - hell, you'll probably sell drugs anyways we don't care, we just can't let any of this spill into the touristy areas of Rio. For the most part the factions of Rio complied. There was only one real rebellion in the Vila Cruzeiro, which was immediately met with armoured cars from the marine corps and its interesting to note that Vila Cruzeiro is within the Penha Complex from yesterday's events.

    The problem arises from how the factions complied. It would have been one thing if they stayed in place and things were business as usual, just with fewer robberies and turf wars and such. But naturally they branched off. First they moved into the municipalities of the Metro area, which are even poorer than Rio's periphery. Then they moved into Rio State's interior. After that they started making more concerted moves into the peripheries of Brazil as a whole. A few years later, once the imperative to keep things under control for the Olympics was gone the occupation programme was met with a return of the faction wars only now with a vengeance. Now the factions don't just hold territory, they manage and extract resources from its people to fund real military campaigns across the greater Rio Area.

    Fast-forward to this year, 4 months ago the government of Rio State tried to do a megaop against the Israel Complex - controlled by the Terceiro Comando Puro (TCP). Megaops are not that uncommon. They are part of the modus vivendi between the state and the criminal elements because, let's face it, the people at the top who launder all the money are tied to politicians, religious leaders and financiers. A Megaop is supposed to kill a handful of people - thereby satisfying the public's need for revenge - arrest a few others but not rock the boat too hard. It was not uncommon for such and such tons of drugs to be apprehended while local leaders somehow escaped. The old leaders of Rio's factions understood this fact and, sure, sometimes they were caught but its not like they lost control over their domains. They still called the shots from prison. But you'll remember that I said the new leaders are young, unstable and increasingly paranoid. It's not just that they'll see you making a vague gesture with your hand and immediately execute you for making 'gang signs' of a rival faction. This also affects how they treat the state.

    So what happened 4 months ago in Israel Complex? The Terceiro Comando Puro of the region is led by religious pentecostal fundamentalists. Its in the name Israel Complex. The moment military police was poised to enter they didn't bother shooting at the police officers. Instead they shot at Avenida Brasil, the main thoroughfare of the city. Thousands were in effect kept hostage in a massive traffic jam and the state couldn't even enter the territory. This was a humiliation to the police and the state government both. And humiliations like these need to be avenged. Today's op mobilized 2,500 civil and military police, moved against two Complexes at the same time and actually managed to capture some of Comando Vermelho's middle managers, arrest dozens and kill hundreds (the latest toll at this moment being 168). Needless to say, by the very nature of this lashout many executions were summary and many innocent people died along the way. But it didn't stop there.

    Comando Vermelho is big, like all factions today it is a para-statal organization and its unity is always at stake. For the past 5 years Comando Vermelho has been fighting wars against ADA and TCP, schisms from it. And Comando Vermelho is not a centralized entity, it is quasi-feudal in structure. As such, it needs to answer humiliation with humiliation. That retaliation is partly in the form of killing power: they set fires across the city and used makeshift drones to throw grenades at police officers. But for the most part, the relatiation took the form of disrupting activities everywhere from Rio's North Zone, to the Center and to certain cities of the Metro Area.

    This is a map of the main thoroughfares that Comando Vermelho ordered closed via barricades - makeshift blockades with torched buses and cars, often also used to delay police action into their territories. This map is meant to be illustrative of their reach because it goes beyond just this action. Threats and rumours online of Comando Vermelho authorizing petty robbery within its territory (often done in order to fund its war operations, now done as retaliation against the state), sackings and killings were enough to force the closure of schools, hospitals, clinics and commerce all across the city.

    I cite this retaliation by Comando Vermelho because what we have is a full display of necropolitics, of death and killing as a solution to life's problems. Only it is also part of an old, outdated paradigm of dealing with crime. The assumption in the War on Drugs always that if you can arrest the Dealer, then crime Disappears. It was harder to argue otherwise in the past, when so much of crime hinged on the drug trade. But nowadays the real drug money lies in retail (controlling supply across the country) or international drug routes into Europe. As mentioned, things have changed, drugs are a minimal portion of the revenue of these political entities, which now act and extract revenues from people as though they are the state. They do not necessarily provide public services, but increasingly do. This is the new war that places not only Rio de Janeiro but much of Brazil's peripheric states at a crossroads. And that crossroads is well known.

    (continued)

  • Iraqi parliamentary elections in around 10 days. I've spent the last week studying the whole situation to my wife's dismay, so you nerds will get a mega post next week where I will break down every big party by governorate and present my calculations of how the government formation might look. You're also getting some commentary on the big question marks ahead of the elections and how the whole system works.

  • President Nicolas Maduro has ordered the mass distribution of rifles across the country to arm the workers against a possible United States invasion. The arms, he said in a speech, will go "to the coasts, the mountains, cities, villages, plains, hamlets, borders, popular neighborhoods, all in order to defend our rights, our peace, our lives, and our sovereignty."

    fucking finally (from mintpress, it might be slightly overhyping https://nitter.net/MintPressNews/status/1984325697393819863)

  • I am old enough to remember the late 90s and the time before the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Americans were for the most part willing to use the military so long as there was a fig leaf of justification for war. The military failure in Iraq had me convinced Americans were snake bitten on this. And I do think for a time, they were. The US I think was forced to use sanctions and more low-level ops in the aftermath of Iraq, and I think public attitudes and reluctance of Americans to want to deploy boots on the ground in other countries played a part in this.

    But now I think that’s over - which makes sense, since Iraq has not been an issue Americans have thought about much in nearly 20 years. The memory has faded.

    Saying this as I see how nonchalant Americans seem to be over starting a war in Venezuela that no one actually believes the line the administration is putting out there. Hasan is showing some polling stats right now that, while they don’t show Americans are thirsty for war, they sure don’t seem all that bothered about the US attacking another country totally unprovoked and without any even close to legitimate casus belli.

    At this point I just hope the forces of Venezuela and the Bolivarian Revolution are able to really make the Americans regret their ambivalence over this evil act.

  • I'm writing my Iraqi elections mega post and I'm already on 3000 words and the thing is like 50% done ffs. There are four massive tables that will break the website for sure, I'm looking forward to that. It's not looking good for the communists, but maybe Allah through the divine intercession of Imam Lenin turns their luck.

  • Fed rate cut remains the best predictor of China cutting a deal with the US (no pun intended).

    I don’t know what other news mega heads think, but I am starting to believe that there is a lot of truths in my hypothesis.

    Let’s recap. Back in January when Biden wanted to ban TikTok, I wrote this:

    Just last month, Fed’s Powell released more mixed signals, citing uncertainty in inflation and said that the Fed may only cut once or twice in 2025. Of course, interest rate has very little to do with inflation in the US, but it should be seen as an imperialist tool that controls foreign economies.

    So Trump has a lot of leverage here: if he can get the Fed to cut more rates this year, then the PBOC can also cut their rates, this will then allow the local governments to borrow at an even lower interest to pay back their outstanding debt, and thus bringing huge relief to their current budgetary situations. Here, you can see how the Fed’s interest rate directly impacts China’s local government finances.

    This is just one weapon the US can use. Tariffs, sanctions, interest rates are all “threats” that can be negotiated down if China gives in to what the US wants. What we will have to wait and see is how Trump and Xi deal with these issues in their ensuing negotiations.

    On September 15th, China sold TikTok. The following day, the Federal Reserve cut its key rate for the first time of the year.

    Last month, when China imposed rare earth export restrictions, I wrote this:

    The US has no choice but to negotiate. China showed just how difficult it is for Trump to decouple from itself. The is a lesson that Trump will continue to have to learn until he concedes the point.

    However, China also cannot keep going with this because it cannot afford to see inflation going up in the US. This is because China has huge local government debt that desperately needs the Fed to lower its interests, way more than what was done last month.

    On October 29th, the Federal Reserve cut its key rate for the second time of the year. Simultaneously, Trump and Xi agreed on a deal after nearly an entire year and at least five rounds of negotiations.

    That’s two Fed rate cuts for two biggest US-China deals of the year, happening within 24 hours of one another.

    It is becoming clear that China’s maneuvers are centered on lessening the burden on the local government debt level, which must have been taking a heavier toll on the economy than expected.

    I’m actually surprised nobody picked up on this, that the Fed rate is an imperialist weapon. Too many people (both mainstream and alt media) focus on the trade war aspect between US and China and fail to see that this is actually a financial war in disguise, and the primary target isn’t even China, but Europe and the rest of the Global South exporter countries.

    Remember that when Trump first launched the global tariffs back in April, the narrative of the pro-BRICS alt media circle was all about the US is shooting itself on the foot and the rest of the world will just trade with one another without the US.

    Well, the exact opposite has happened - that Europe doubled down on its anti-China policy while many Asian exporter countries are scrambling to sign new trade deals with Trump, including South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia in the last few days.

    I had warned back then that this whole decoupling from the US cannot happen without China transitioning into a domestic consumption economy. BRICS has failed to offer any alternative because they all want to run trade surpluses against each other, which is mathematically impossible. As a result, the US consumer market still dictates what happens.

    Thankfully, it seems that the Chinese leadership is finally admitting that consumption growth is going to be the priority of the next Five-Year Plan Reuters:

    The five-year plan recommendations reaffirmed last week's official remarks that China will increase the proportion of government investment for people's livelihoods and raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP "significantly" over the next five years.

    "The allocation of resources will shift more towards consumption, as large-scale expansion of traditional industries and infrastructure has reached its limit," said a policy adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Future investment will focus on high-tech industries and new infrastructure."

    China may aim to increase the household consumption rate by about 5 percentage points over the next five years, but policy advisers say it is unclear whether the government will set a specific target in the upcoming five-year plan.

    Attempts to boost consumption and related reforms over the past decade have been slow to take root in the real economy. Consumer confidence has remained low because of inadequate social welfare, slowing income growth and a property crisis that has eroded household wealth. The services sector has also taken time to develop.

    Whether this can be achieved without the central government running up the deficit, I have my doubts. It will be very difficult to have a meaningful shift towards consumption without resolving the massive wealth inequality problem in the country, which will require the government to run a very high deficit i.e. spends way more than it taxes back. But at least it is going in the right direction.

  • Czech officials deny entry to Israeli [sic] soldier after Schengen-wide alert | The Cradle

    An Israeli [sic] reservist who had served in Gaza and south Lebanon was stopped at Prague’s Vaclav Havel Airport on 28 October and denied entry after Czech border police said France had issued a “criminal alert” blocking his travel across the Schengen zone.

    The reservist said officers questioned him for hours before forcing him onto a flight back to Israel [sic], describing the experience as “being treated like a criminal.”

  • Google, Amazon agreed to secretly notify Israel [sic] if foreign courts demand Project Nimbus data: Report | The Cradle

    Israeli [sic] Finance Ministry documents cited in the investigation reveal the two main controls imposed by Israel [sic].

    “The first prohibits Google and Amazon from restricting how Israel [sic] uses their products, even if this use breaches their terms of service. The second obliges the companies to secretly notify Israel [sic] if a foreign court orders them to hand over the country’s data stored on their cloud platforms, effectively sidestepping their legal obligations,” wrote +972 Magazine.

    the method of notification is interesting:

    Referred to as the “winking mechanism,” Google and Amazon have to send the Israeli [sic] government four-digit payments in Israeli [sic] currency, corresponding to the specific area code.

    “For example, if Google or Amazon were compelled to share data with US authorities (dialing code +1) and were barred from revealing that action by a US court, they would transfer NIS 1,000 to Israel [sic]. If a similar request were to occur in Italy (dialing code +39), they would instead send NIS 3,900,” +972 Magazine explained.

  • (cw: sexual assault) Israeli [sic] army's top lawyer quits over role in leaking Sde Teiman r*pe footage | The Cradle

    The leaked video led to protests in Israel [sic] in support of the soldiers who r*ped the Palestinian detainee

    The Israeli [sic] military's top lawyer announced her resignation on 31 October for her involvement in leaking a surveillance video which showed soldiers gang r*ping a Palestinian detainee held at the notorious Sde Teiman detention facility last year.

    Military Advocate General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi submitted her resignation letter to the Israeli [sic] military's Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, on Friday morning.

    A criminal investigation was launched by the Israeli [sic] police earlier this week into the leaking of the surveillance video. She is expected to be questioned by the police in the coming days.

  • A Venezuelan Air Force F-16 fighter jet shot down an aircraft that invaded Venezuelan airspace. The shootdown occurred in the midst of military operations and exercises to ensure Venezuela's national sovereignty amid threats of attack from the United States. After being shot down, the plane was intercepted on the ground by soldiers from the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB)

  • Greens second in latest polling

    Polling conducted on 29/10/2025, by findoutnow

    Photo: Zack Polanski of the Greens.

    Polling results:

    1. (=) Reform – 32% [-3%]
    2. (↑3) Greens – 17% [+5%]
    3. (↓1) Labour – 16% [-3%]
    4. (↓1) Conservatives – 16% [+2%]
    5. (=) Lib Dems – 12% [=]

    Similar result echoed by other more reputable pollsters, such as YouGov putting the Greens at 16%, one point behind Labour.

  • Interview: Venezuela’s militias and the civil-military union

    October 30, 2025 - www.red-spark.org

    So, in the face of this threat, our militias are prepared and we have very high morale. Just as the militias are prepared for civil duties, we are prepared in the strategic concept of permanent war. We understand the necessity of resistance, of the people in arms and of providing material and logistical support to the entire resistance effort of the armed struggle. We are constantly training in the tactical methods of revolutionary resistance and training in different disciplines of combat so that we can mesh with other combatants in other areas. The militias are prepared, organised and trained to be able to execute any type of manoeuvre in order to resist any attempt to desecrate Venezuelan sovereignty.

    We will defend our homeland. If we must resist for 50 years, or 100 years, we will do it and we will resist with everything we have at hand. We will not surrender our homeland to any imperialist power.

    https://red-spark.org/2025/10/30/interview-venezuelas-militias-and-the-civil-military-union/

    edit: this picture seems to have been removed since I first read this, posting here because I can't stop thinking about it

    img description crowd of people behind an APC, there's a woman in a pink garfield tshirt holding a rifle

  • Another non-news (or meta-news) comment, which I apologize for, but for reasons that will become obvious it kind of had to go here.

    It seems comrade @aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net was driven off the site by certain behaviors almost a year ago. I heard he still posts under a different account and he was a news-head at the time, so comrade, if you're reading this, I miss your posts. You were an interesting, well-read poster with a great perspective. We interacted a few times and I enjoyed it every time. If you're interested in reconnecting (no pressure), feel free to DM me on here or on Matrix (the "Send Secure Message" button on my profile).

  • Denmark's Housing Crisis: Capitalist Realism Grinds Construction Of Public Housing To A Halt

    A perfect storm of rigid fiscal rules, a real-estate bubble, and weakly enforced planning laws has brought the construction of public housing in Denmark to a virtual standstill. The resulting crisis has left hundreds of thousands of families languishing on waiting lists for public housing, even as a boom in expensive, privately-owned speculative housing reshapes the skyline of the largest cities, allowing parasitic corporate landlords to leech exploitative rents from residents.

  • Ukraine is launching its largest one way drone attack (likely of the entire war), with most of the drones turning towards Moscow. Each individual red arrow is supposed to be a single drone, but they've launched so many it's just a blob of red.

    What is the point of this? Ukraine has launched multiple drone and cruise missile (including FP-5 Flamingo) attacks on Moscow over the past few days. Nothing got through or impacted. This is because Moscow has an extremely dense air defence network, hundreds Russian air defence assets (from S-300/400, Buk, and Tor/Pantsir) are located there.

    However this attack is considerably larger than previous attacks. Most will get shot down, but some will probably get through just because of the sheer number. My hypothesis is that Ukraine wants to show Russia that they can hold Moscow at risk, so that Russia does not redeploy some of these air defence systems located around Moscow to other areas.

    It must also be noted that Russia launched a large aerial attack on Ukraine a few days ago, involving over 50 ballistic and cruise missiles and over 600 one way attack drones.

  • This line is so tired and false. Our Revolutions do not operate on exclusion and bigotry. Considerable work is being done within Venezuela towards expanding the rights of all people, including women and LGBT peoples. If you believe Venezuela is 'one of the most conservative countries in North or South or Central America' — then you haven't been to any countries.

    Northerners are eager to export their culture war and apply narrow understandings just like embassies work to impose their imperialist agendas on the global south.

  • Venezuela’s GDP Could Grow Over 9% in 2025

    In its latest report, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) confirmed that the country’s economy has experienced 18 consecutive quarters of sustained growth and that GDP rose 8.7% in the third quarter of 2025. By economic activity, GDP recorded the highest increases in construction (16.4%), transportation and storage (9.3%), manufacturing (8.9%), commerce (8.2%), and mining (7%).

    “No one will ever be able to remove us from the world’s energy equation. However, dependence on oil income — a mistake made 100 years ago — must come to an end completely,” the Bolivarian leader said.

    In its latest analysis, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected that Venezuela will have the highest economic growth in Latin America in 2025, with a GDP expansion of 6%. It will be followed by Paraguay (4.5%), Argentina (4.3%), and Panama (4.1%).

855 comments