Asklemmy @lemmy.ml

1y ago

What do you think human civilization will look like in 10 years?

128 comments

Same as it does now, just with slightly less effective money.
- Maybe a little sweatier and thirsty.

2033 will finally be the year of linux desktop
- And you're right. 2032 is the last year that Win 10 gets updates.
- Xorg will finally be put to rest at least. The wayland compositor is still a huge, monumental development, the excuses for using proprietary OSs will thin out.
  I can't wait for the day when Windows 12 releases and we get to bully windows users even harder.
- The year that most people start using Linux is the year that it will find some way to sell out. *I know that it's not a monolothic thing, GPL, etc. but people ruin everything... enshittification, uh, finds a way
- Hopefully 😂

Not much different. Foldable phones will be widespread, American cars will be bigger, shaving machines will have more blades, natural disasters will be more common. We will go through one or two more cycles of drought/forest fires and heavy rains/floodings. We will see one or two mass migrations from India, Pakistan and Africa resulting in first climate refuge camps on the borders of EU.
- shaving machines will have more blades
  I wish they'd just work out how many blades is the optimum number of blades, and then put that number of blades on. Why are we doing this iterative design approach.
  
  It's one. I'd been annoyed with razor burn, nicks & cuts, spots, etc. I switched to a simple double sided safety razor and I'm really enjoying it. As far as I'm concerned all this 8 blade turbo fusion slice and dice is all marketing.
  
  Anecdotally, I've found that answer to be one.
- So you are telling me there still won't be flying cars in 10 years? smh
  
  Flying cars are a terrible idea. We can barely keep them rolling on the ground. Do you really want several tones of metal floating above your head?
  
  We have flying cars right now they're called helicopters. You just don't have one because they're expensive.
  
  Yeah, as the pinnacle of human achievement, we need to bring traffic congestion to the skies.
  
  There will be exactly 4 flying cars in 10 years.
  I'm the oracle, I have spoken!
- you forgot the next pandemic
- Foldable phones will be widespread
  Very unlikely.
  
  Wanna bet?

My guess: Electric vehicles everywhere, protests, more linux users, and portless phones will be the norm
Edit: Oh yeah privacy is dead or at least much more harder to obtain
- 2033 is the year of Linux on the desktop.
  
  "This year for sure" :^)
- 1984
  
  1984 is wayyy too exaggerated. We don't need to force people to have a "telescreen" if everyone just voluntarily spend their own resources to obtain them. (Eg: Smart Home Assistants) We don't need to have a "ministry of truth" when people voluntarily believe in lies spread on news and social media. (Eg: Various Facebook groups, "QAnon", Fox News)
- More Linux users is really a coin flip in my mind. It feels like Linux had more users in 2016 than now. Linux had more games natively support it than today and proton for be had been really hit or miss. We'll see if steam os ever comes to the desktop because I could see that being a major benefit to the Linux market but I don't see it significantly growing before then on desktops.
  
  You can install Proton (the game compatibility layer) on desktop Linux now, can’t you?

The futuristic world of 2033 will be very different from our current primitive one. Humans will be seven foot tall with thumbs as long as fingers. Mars will have been fully terraformed, whilst there'll be hundreds of vast floating cities on Venus. A Dyson swarm will encircle the solar system just beyond Neptune's orbit. Humanity will communicate telepathically as one with AI. We still won't understand cats.
- What about flying cars?
  
  I honestly don't think they'll exist yet. Just trying to be realistic.
  
  With the amount of accidents and deaths drivers cause on the ground I'd rather flying cars not exist.
  
  Helikopter helikopter
- That must mean that the cats will have transcended by then if such advanced humans could still not understand them. Welp, guess my only option is still blink slowly and pay them katzen the respect they expect

We will likely have hit 1.5 + degrees of warming in 10 years time so our society may look quite different. It's likely that our supply chains will be disrupted by this and become more localised as rising temperatures / intensifying weather events impact our capacity to grow / distribute as much food as we do now. There may potentially be Pacific Nations that no longer exist due to sea level rise. We will likely also see the beginning of a significant climate refugee crisis that nations in the global north will struggle to respond to.
- I grilled dinner tonight out on our deck wearing a painters mask because the smoke from the wildfires around here is so thick it looks like it's pissing rain outside. Only when I caught myself in the mirror with my plate, mask and tongs did I start to think, this seems a little odd.

I watched a documentary about this recently. The franchise wars should be coming up soon that allows all restaurants to become Taco Bell.
- I think I watched the same one. I think the three seashells will revolutionise the bathroom experience.
  
  I still can't figure out how those goddamn things work.
- Strange... I watched a similar documentary, but it was Pizza Hut that prevailed.
  
  I hope not, I wouldn't be able to afford pizza anymore T,T

The weather will probably be a lot worse
And maybe PlayStation 6
- And the next Elder Scrolls game still won't be out.
- and hopefully gta 6
  
  They'll just bring GTA V to the PlayStation 6. That's all Rockstar do now, they make the same game again and again and again and again and again and again and again and then sell it to you every time, and every time you buy it.

The developed world will run out of charity.
We’ve spent the last 300 years essentially looting resources and labor from poorer parts of the world. And when they finally decide that enough is enough, that they want a piece of the pie, they won’t be able to get it.
Climate refugees will be killed at closely guarded border crossings. Fishing boats will be torpedoed. Encampments will be burned.
In “rich” countries, the poor will be gradually cut off. Their labor value will decrease even further, and there won’t be anything left for them. In some places, public housing and healthcare will allow them to limp on, until many are killed by the next pandemic.
The wealthy will enjoy what they have, their lives barely interrupted. The world will not look very different to them.

In the west and culturally, a post-boomer period will have begun. And I think there’ll be continued evaluation of what mistakes that era made especially as climate change looms as an increasingly damaging debt. In a similar vein, the relationship with capitalism and big corps is, I think, going to get messy and more polarised, in part because the mistakes we’ve made will be hard to disentangle for many.
Overall, I suspect that for many paying attention, the downfall of the west will seem more and more plausible and closer and that will create a contentious atmosphere.
- Downfall of the West relative to who? The whole world is impacted by climate change and the West is best positioned to manage its effects.
  
  Well at first glance the West seems very well suited to buffer the effects, The last decade shows that it is hyper sclerotic and unwilling to give even the most minor concessions to adapt to change. This will be US centric, but the US was kind of behind on this trend (e.g. Orban, Erdogan, the AfD, etc. came before Trump). The only way the political system can function is by expanding authoritarian repression. No matter which party is in charge we have to keep expanding the military and police to fight the boogeyman (China, Russia, Republican Fascism, Democratic Deep State, etc.) and only appeals to voters/platforms are by how we need to fight back the horrors of the other party (fascism and the end of Democracy, Woke-ism and Democrat conspiracies). This fundamentally comes from an unwillingness to improve or maintain the standard of living of most, but would rather use violence to keep the lower orders and economically superfluous in line. Ironically, the more problems that we face, the more that the political system is converging and unwilling to adapt. This means that in actual policy both parties have been converging closer to each other (Biden has not deviated from Trump's immigration policy, and is in fact, working towards Obama's record as Deporter in Chief, has clawed back pandemic protections and relief even from the low bar Trump set, has been funding police using federal programs and therefore more anti-BLM than Trump). But for electoral and political identity reasons, the more that both parties are far-right fascist parties aligned on policy, their rhetoric and political maneuvers have to be more polarized.
  So, even though in external challenges and capacity on paper are in the West's favor, I really think we cannot count out the institutional decay and how every political institution is hell-bent against ever adapting to changing conditions other than strengthening the police-state.
  It's the Onion, but I think this demonstrates a metaphorical truth about how Neoliberalism of the last 40 years removed any state capacity to deal with crises and changing conditions: https://www.theonion.com/something-about-the-way-society-was-exposed-as-complete-1846251067
  
  I did say "overall", it wasn't premised entirely on climate change. My concern is that the systems of government, influence and leadership have been pretty badly corrupted. No other region or culture needs to be better for this to be true ... all cultures/civilisations have periods of decay without "dying" or being conquered.
  
  If we wanted to, sure. I mean, we like you and me want to, but we have no say. We were also supposedly "best positioned to manage a pandemic" and just look how that turned out. I know I'm not saying anything particularly novel here, but the capitalist response to covid has been a trial balloon for the capitalist response to climate change, and the results are pretty grim. As long as there's more profit to be made at the top by monetizing the rot, the problems will never be addressed.

More climate refugees, more crop failures due to worsening climate change, more deaths due to climate change

We're definitely going to see jobs affected by ChatGPT and the like. It's an open question of "Can LLMs do things as well as humans?" across the board, but when have you seen a company turn down a deal like "slightly shittier, but costs pennies on the dollar and doesn't have any pesky 'rights'"?
- Still waiting for that VR quantum blockchain technology to affect jobs

With all the dystopian content I've been consuming lately I'd say we're heading to an age of
Mass surveilance
Regionalistic Economies in place of globalism
Widening wealth disparity
Intensified distrust of our governments
That is if the tensions in Asia Pacific don't turn into an all out conflict ( Live in PH )
- Let me be a bit more optimistic:
  Mass surveillance
  I think we're already there, and despite the fact you can see laws signed that would point to more surveillance, you can't ban encryption effectively. It's kinda hard to ban maths, much harder than weed or booze, and see how they went. Point is, these laws IMO drive awareness of the issue, and everyone can just encrypt their stuff easily, and enforcement of a ban on that is near impossible.
  Regionalistic Economies in place of globalism
  That's the geopolitical dream of some countries ... but I don't see the current world order in trade buckling. That said, let's say that the current world order changes by the USD losing the world's biggest reserve currency status, what then? Will some countries simply not trade with others because of that? Maybe some pecking orders will rearrange themselves, but no one is interested in destroying the system, people just want their country to dictate instead of the US.
  Widening wealth disparity
  I don't think it can widen much more, as the pendulum swings both ways. See how socio-economic woes destabilized the US. We either fix the billionaire problem in a legal orderly fashion, or it resolves itself in an uglier way. It can't get much worse than this without social order breaking down, and then it's all moot. The rich can move to their New Zealand bunkers or the Moon to escape the mob, it's not that much different from them dying or going to prison as far as the rest of the world is concerned.
  Intensified distrust of our governments
  Have we ever trusted them? And to be honest, should we trust them? I mean I think governments are less untrustworthy than corporations, but still, they have power, and thus should be scrutinized. And besides, the loonies who always vote for the biggest idiot already don't trust the government. If this growing distrust results in more participation in politics from decent people who just want to live their lives, that's a good thing.
  
  I think wealth disparity can get much worse than this. People used to be enslaved and forced into serfdom. The people on top wouldn't have to win if the people revolted, they just have to not lose and let the people who already struggle die from starvation. Such a scenario is highly unpredictable and personally I still think the people would win, but it's definitely an uphill battle that's getting harder the more we remain passive.
- This just seems like extrapolation and very likely.

Ten years is really a pretty small jump. It's not like things are wildly different today than in 2013.
- looks around, gestures vaguely
  
  Climate change is worse, US politics more polarized, phones are bigger, computers are faster, etc. But if someone went to sleep in 2013 and woke up in 2023, it might take them a little bit to notice the changes.
- Honestly like the biggest change since 2013 is probably twitter starting to rot
- In 10 years we went through a huge jump. Mass use of smart phones, new PoS systems, the internet has become overly censored, forest fires like we have never seen before, covid, powerful handhelds, AI... Things are exponential right now
  
  Smart phones were already huge. The first Pixel came out in 2013, replacing the Nexus, the iPhone was on the 5 and 5s, and the Galaxy S4 was released.
  Covid, AI, larger fires are the main things out of your examples that have changed dramatically, but I don’t think any of them have been exponential changes. For most people, covid is probably the largest, and if they did not lose anybody and are healthy themselves, the main thing that changed is potential wfh options and everything being more expensive.
  
  Still a matter of degrees. Smart phones were 57% of the market in 2013. Not sure what point of sale system advancements in the last decade you're talking about that are very revolutionary - we've certainly had online connected credit cards systems for decades. Really, all those things are pretty evolutionary in the span we're taking about, with AI poised to be the most impactful for hasn't been in the period.

0.4C warmer globally

Hopefully not a live action Cyberpunk 2077
- Hopefully ~~not~~ a live action Cyberpunk 2077
  While i know I wouldn't make it for very long, fuck yeah I wanna see a samurai show!
  
  At least I might get to cruise with the valentinos and maybe get hooked up with some sick body mods

Depends whether we choose solarpunk or dystopia.
- We're already in a dystopia, it's been that way for a while now, it'll just get even more dystopian.
  
  yeah pretty much. Eventually somethings gotta give, but its a matter of if we live to see it or not. I don't think it will for me, but that's what Lenin said in January 1917 so, you know. Never know!
- I have a personal preference

The same as now but more dilapidated, desperate, and annoying, if you're lucky enough to not have everything changed by climate catastrophe in that time or torn apart by war
Oh, and people won't hang out outside much in most places for much of the year, we'll all collectively shelter indoors, as discomfort from heat becomes common and people start adapting to constant dangerous heatwaves
- Don't forget the oppressively dense smoke covering all of North America every summer, simultaneously during extreme heat waves, meaning that the cheap leaky window AC systems found in normally cool areas will make people have to choose between overheating and coughing.
  
  eventually there won't be enough left to burn to cause the smoke clouds!

We will start to see major companies collapse when they realize too late hoarding wealth means no one can buy anything.

What do you think human civilization will look like in 10 years?

I don't think I can give a better or more creative answer than what's already here.
But I can assure you, people in ten years will come back to this thread to see how the predictions fared.

It's very hard to tell. Most decades have inertia that carry on 3-4 years in. You didn't see people vaping or people with full beards drinking craft beer until 2013.
It's hard to tell what's seeping into the new decade from the last decade, what's here to stay, and what's new to come. Are NFTs the new thing? Or just a symptom of the boom in crypto the 20-teens.
I do predict AI will be here to stay, though.

AI will make immense progress and all jobs that require a computer will be handed over to AI and robots. There will be hardly any middle managers left. People will do manual or personal stuff that robots cannot do.
Depending on who owns the AI, the distribution of wealth decides which jobs are available. I would bet on a small group of people who are going to decide what humanity will do.
The problem is that AI requires energy. At one point, the decision has to be made whether energy is used for bricks or bytes. Bytes will be prefered so most people will live in tiny rooms.
Since there is not much work to be done, and energy is expensive, people will spent most of their time doing something energy-efficient. Cities will be built for walking distances.
- This is the ultimate failure of capitalism, an autonomous Workforce should mean that we are all free to live our lives. Instead it just means that we won't be able to eat.
  
  That depends on you. The ones who create the future decide who will be able to eat.
  The funny part is that the free humans already take all the resources and create all the scarcity. Why should that change when AI allows people to be more free? AI won't solve any social problems.
- Aspiring artists will find work correcting the fingers and toes in AI illustrations.

I hope these things will happen
Governments invest more money on grid energy storage
green hydrogen becomes more common
I fear these will also:
global warming gets worse
Trump gets elected
Watching a few more seasons of the Shitshow is surprisingly entertaining

Civilization will be crawling on its hands and knees, dying.
The rich will all be trying to pile into New Zealand.
America will be a warzone.
I'll have been killed by a flash mob stealing food from vulnerable houses.
Canada will be overrun by refugees, with rampant disease and cannibalism in the camps.
The republicans in the USA will still deny climate change, saying it's all a hoax.
The middle east and india will be uninhabitable.
Nuclear weapons use will be widespread.
The Internet won't exist anymore.
Everyone reading this comment will be dead.
- I'll be surprised if all this eventuates in the next ten years

Crispy

Bernie Sanders will be announcing his bid for presidency
- and showing off his new titanium carapace, shaped like a Gundam
  
  I could get behind a mobile suit Sanders.
  
  build more philons

Closer to Idiocracy.

Global warming will get worse, maybe a run away effect might start.

Same, but slightly more on fire.

I feel like we are going to be blindsided by tech development in a field a lot of non-tech people don't expect.
Maybe VR/AR really taking off in the mainstream to a point it effects TV sales for example or high quality chatbots or image generation tools that can be easily run locally on consumer hardware.
We might also see cellphones using a different decentralized network.
- I think there is going to be a greater push for KYC for social media as we are going to soon be inundated with comments and online activity by bots that is indistinguishable from humans and hyper taylored to its audience. All the stuff Russia pulled with election interference is going to be child's play.
  There is also going to be an explosion of content. The same recipe page that took a human a day or two to create will be made in a second. Billions of recipe pages, billions of sports blogs, billions of comments...

Basically the same except we're gonna generally agree that aliens are real and not just somewhere in the abyss of space. Feel free to disagree, but that's where I'm at after the last few months - most specifically with Schumer's UAP Disclosure Act. Won't be mad if I'm wrong, but it sure as hell feels like it's coming and quick.
- I think we will be more focused on making sure the planet is livable instead of giving a shit about space aliens tbh
- If it turns out that the American government managed to hide the existence for aliens and then randomly just told everyone because somebody forced them to that will be amazing.
  If they're prepared to talk about it that almost certainly means that they're not aliens.
  The US military can more or less just do whatever they want they could totally ignore demands to release information, they could just say oh that was just a classified aircraft test our pilots weren't told about because it's above their pay grade, and we cannot release this information for national security reasons.
  
  I think you're pretty close. I think it is aliens (of some kind) but if not, it also means that either my government is lying to me (par for the course) or there's some real crazy people high up that need to go.
  So, even if it's not something beyond our current belief about life or there's some real fuckery that needs to be dealt with swiftly.
  Based on the UAP Disclosure Act, I'm feeling pretty confident it is aliens of some kind. But at the very least, it sure looks like we're gonna get a lot more than "yes, there are things in the sky our government cannot identify".
  Either way, the last few months have been a wild ride and ive enjoyed every moment of it. But, if it's fuckery, my congresspeople and senator are gonna be hearing a lot more from me than they already have. Personally, I'm done with being lied to about shit like Iraq and funding the war machine and it's time to focus on the real issues at hand. I just think one of those is gonna be ayylmaos.
- So interesting to me when I see this opinion. May I ask, are you American?
  I am American and feel as though I’ve seen an uptick of people feeling this way.
  
  Yep. Grusch coming out was the moment I started thinking "hmmm" then Schumer's amendment to the NDAA was a "Wait, you're being serious...." moment. So, I'm pretty convinced now. Totally cool with being wrong, but I'm getting real close to falling off the fence until proven otherwise.
- This could have a transformative effect. So many people have no idea what's been going on with this lately.
- I think if aliens are real and on earth, our perception of reality had been fed to us and nothing is real or to be believed. Particularly science and physics. Every position of power must be held by an Android ior simulated human and we are part of some experiment. Possibly or most likely fake stimuli being fed direct into our brains.
  
  Regardless of what has or hasn't happened... I really want to know what the hell congress were on about when talking of "crashed UAP's with "biologics"" - what fucking biologics? Human test pilots? Funky new biological components? Aliens?!
  I hate that it's all cloak and dagger... Just fucking spill the beans about what the hell you're on about damn it!

Begin homeless will be an actually standard in Europe and USA.

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