In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand
In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand
Treasury and dollar moves the last week are a tide showing the US is losing. Trump, the way he is, is sure to ask for too much, or settle for "show announcements", but world may understand that they collectively have more pressure on him, especially with China eager to be friends.
The USA was already a sinking ship, I think, Fart Man just decided to speed the process up a bit.
I see the tide as being more about two egos splashing in a pool.
Yes, the US economy is very unstable, but the Chinese and American economies are intertwined and interdependent. The current conflict in a not a zero-sum cads game - both will lose. Trump is a petulant child, but the Chinese are driven by a need to be seen as stronger and smarter (face is very important to Xi.) The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night. They have a lot of prejudice to get past - and other economies are concerned about the impact of depending on the Chinese.
The US economy is utterly irrelevant to China as per BBC:
Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume of sales to the US but, to put it into context, this only amounted to 2% of its GDP.
egos
Trump keeps saying China should call and that they will make a deal is more submissive afaik. Though I haven't seen Chinese press conferences. Foreign minister is quoted with response including "joke" insult. Trump did back down to EU a bit "their retaliation tariffs didn't become active yet" (China's hadn't yet either). He specifically sited large volume of Chinese exports in the week to rest of world in US backing down to world. Lobbying is likely to result in US backing off Chinese tariffs soon, with reciprocality on amount lowering.
The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night.
Cars are extremely hard to rewire trade with. Sales/maintenance dealers/supply chains that integrate back home. Same for heavy industry equipment. Dealers/sales/repair training. Electronics, clothing, toys exports don't have that problem (US is only 12% of Chinese exports. Can increase elsewhere). Importing FFs, agriculture is easy switch. Getting EU/JPN/SK to sell planes, heavy equipment to China is worth it if US competition is blacklisted. Microsoft/Adobe have open source alternatives that do require some switching/retraining, but MSFT afaik was mostly selling to US companies in China for "national security reasons", with CCP advising domestic companies to avoid for same reasons for last few years. US import dependence on China is significantly higher than reverse. China airlines already have mixed boeing/airbus fleets.
Most of this tariff business is about economics but I feel like that's just not true with China. There's too many people saying there's going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China. It might just be that the US government needs to give them a hard push to make that happen. Being dependent on China during the opening days of war would be devastating for many US firms.
There’s too many people saying there’s going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China.
Very high risk of war when trade breaks down. As in 1930s. Israel/Philippines annihilation, Panama, Columbia could all be on the table. Korea reunification under best Korea. Taiwan just needs to be blockaded from flights east. Japan needs to be careful too. All of Asia have natural alliance opportunities, but US corruption forces are strong, even when Trump threatens to abandon all allies.
War can be avoided with similar independence/respect to today. But greater subservience to US is the danger, no matter how illogical it is for rulerships to choose that path.
All that said, the people of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and others are anxiously seeking a sign from the US that our military will come to their aid when attacked. Even Vietnam wishes to use the US to balance Chinese power in the east. When China has so many fearful neighbors, that's a sign there's a serious problem with China.
https://lemmy.ml/post/28363049 has better details on how weak US is compared to China. Just a bit long.
