How likely is it that Trump will be the first President assassinated since Kennedy?

100% chance but mostly because i think that the plan
Let trump do what he want
Kill trump
Put a puppet like vance in is place
Use trump death to do what they want with the reason of stopping the big bad left
- I've been saying this for months. How long until 47 "has a stroke."
  
  Had some polonium tea, fell out a window, then shot himself in the back of the head.
  
  Not sure why anyone would bother making it look natural/accidental?

A public assassination like Kennedy’s is meant to send a message. Trump would just have a cardiac event and never come out of the hospital. The real issue will be that he’s old and fat and eats trash, so he could have a legit health problem and die from natural causes easily at his age.
But then, President JD Vance. I don’t think anyone but Peter Thiel and Elon Musk want that. Trump sucks, but he’s the devil you know. Vance could be turboHitler or just hand the whole country to Silicon Valley. Rule by ChatGPT may be the worst of all possible worlds.
- YES. This guy gets it. Nobody understands how lucky we are to have this fuckwit as president. Do you see all these actual fascists constantly up in his prostate? Trump was a proof of concept. These taint-lickers are panting to have control. Let's see how his mouth-breathing paint-eating constituency acts when this fat fuck is dead. Probably no different, but maybe.
  
  Yeah but the difference is Trump has the magnetism and Vance doesn't? Usually when a cult leader dies the whole cult kinda fizzles out.
  
  WE ARE NOT LUCKY TO HAVE A FUCKING HALF-DEAD removed AS PRESIDENT. THIS IS NOT OKAY AT ANY FUCKING LEVEL.
  
  The only thing possibly holding them off is that there's 2 or 3 factions all wanting to long knife™ eachother at the first chance, which means they have to be ready to go as soon as the power vacuum happens, and one of the factions controls the VP seat.
  That might delay the chaos a bit, but not for long.
  
  Let’s see how his mouth-breathing paint-eating constituency acts when this fat fuck is dead. Probably no different, but maybe.
  Trump and the media have built a cult of personality around Trump. I don't see how that power could transfer to another person, I can't think of another person in the line up that has personality.
- Vance has no conviction behind anything he ever says. Just google "jd vance never trump" and I'm sure you'll find a slew of videos from a few years ago where he was saying he's "a never trump guy".
  Kinda funny how quickly he spread his asshole to present himself for trump then.
  
  Vance could be relatively good. Signs point to no, but those signs are weak. The only thing I truly know about him is that he'll lie for power. What he does once he gets that power is anyone's guess.
  He's close to Peter Thiel. His book is really fucking condescending towards the rural poor. (Why don't they just get out like he did?) He's young enough to go for a second term if he gets half a first term. And he hates Trump except when he needs to use him to gain power.
  That's the complete record of what we know about Vance. Maybe his book was bullshit that he knew would play well with rich conservatives. Maybe he was using Peter Thiel. Maybe there's a human in there we've never seen. Or maybe not.
- Trump crashing the economy, Trump dying from whatever, Vance taking over and taking credit for any kind of recovery sounds almost like its planned.
  
  Nah. The damage Trump has done can't be undone.
  Sure vance might replace him and take credit for any recovery, but this level of destruction was not planned.
- Trump sucks, but he’s the devil you know. Vance could be turboHitler or [...]
  I don't buy that.
  Whoever would be able, and willing, and succeeding with the first one, is an evil person, and would already have a plan with the second one. An evil plan, I guess, that would make the second one scared enough to become that puppet.
  
  You don't have to beat around the bush, you can just say putin.
  
  I'm personally scared that you're allowed to vote.
- anyone but Peter Thiel and Elon Musk want that.
  And Putin
- So first kill Vance unawares, then kill Drumpf? Gotcha, noted!
  
  President Mike Johnson outlaws women going out in public alone and institutes daily Bible reading classes. Attendance is mandatory if you don't want to end up in an El Salvador slave prison.

There's already been like five attempts, and two of them got shots off. Eventually, someone might get lucky.
- If they get lucky, we all get lucky
  
  I'm up all night to get lucky.
  
  Not sure Vance is much of a gain over Trump. How far down the chain would one have to go to find someone palatable?
  
  I think things would get a bit more complicated than that, unfortunately.
- They only need to get lucky once.

Hitler survived 30+ attempts, so don't count on it. The people running this simulation wants to watch us suffer.
- Ok this might be my new favourite conspiracy
  Our universe is a simulation created by a group of facists that are using us to research how they can gain and maintain power. If a successful fascist regime takes hold then the experiment will be over and the simulation will be shut off, the only way to survive is to continue to fend off fascisum.

I don't think it's at all likely. Trump knows he's hated, and he isn't about to go and do a parade in a convertible. More importantly, the secret service knows he's hated and know they screwed up huge in letting someone take a shot at him, so they've dialed security up to 11.
Reagan and JFK were shot at a time when they had extremely high approval ratings. It was probably harder for the secret service to stay focused and for everyone to take threats seriously when that was the case.
This isn't a Hollywood movie where a billionaire can go on the dark web and hire The Jackal or something. If they were to try to place a hit, most of The Jackals out there are probably feds posing as hitmen.
But, let's say somehow a billionaire could find people willing to make the attempt. Trying to assassinate the US president is a suicide mission. If someone tries to do it as a lone gunman, they're going up against the entire secret service. They may get the attack in, but they're almost certainly not going to get away. If it's a group of attackers, the more people, the more communications, the more communications, the more opportunities for the NSA to spot them.
And, this is one time we don't have to worry about nation-states attacking the president. The US is punching itself in the dick over and over right now. If you're someone who wants the US to fail, you just have to stand by and watch. In fact, if an enemy's surveillance of the US turned up a plan to kill Trump, they'd probably warn the secret service to make sure Trump stays in power as long as possible.
- i had a friend in the drama department in college. he was an idiot. he was one of those guys who got older every year but his girlfriends didn't. a few years after we all graduated, we all went our ways. word made it through the grapevine one day because we all got google alerts. he'd been arrested by the feds, and not for statutory like we'd all first assumed. nah, he couldn't get a job after college so he tried to convince an undercover ATF officer to engage in some light terrorism/treason as a way of blowing off steam. funniest thing is, my mom and that ATF officer's wife go on vacation together like twice a year (they lived in my hometown for fifteen years, we're friends).
  uh, fuck. i'm sure there was a point to this story. if i remember i'll get back to it.
- But what happens when you tell trump how GOOD he would look in a convertible in a large parade?
  
  He'd know what it would do to his hair, he'd never risk that.
- No, the secret service did not screw that up. They told the Trump campaign they could not secure the area and the campaign ignored them. Trump is far dumber than Hitler. Hitler had people protecting him and he respected their work. Trump dismisses anything that mildly annoys or inconveniences him. He absolutely will be shot, we just have no idea when or what country will get credit for the kill.
  
  What country would want him shot? He's destroying the US more effectively than any enemy could ever hope to do.
  
  Hitler, unlike Trump, fought in an actual war. If nothing else, that goes a long way towards respecting the power of violence - both to give and receive it.
- A suicide mission might not be as much of an issue if someone's entire life is in shambless due to economic collapse, no healthcare and God knows what else is cooking up over there in the US. I mean, you're prolly very tight that the feds are on top of it, but human life can be pretty squishy, especially for a ca. 80 y.o. man. Someone could leave a carrot on the white house doorstep and he might trip and snap his neck, who knows.
  But I'm more curious about the people who lose everything, are getting truly desperate, and have nothing left to fear.
  
  Yeah, people forget that there are entire generations of Americans whose only feasible retirement plans are suicide or homicide
- "Trump administration is having early talks to hold a military parade in nation’s capital on June 14" 🙏
- Considering how the Trump Regime consistently fires anyone who is competent but DEI or not glazing Trump's asshole, I think an assassin would have an easier time than usual.
  
  It's going to take a while to weed all the competent people out of the secret service.

If we're being real, it's not likely at all. He's probably safer than Biden was.
Not only does the secret service impose incredibly tight security (not perfect, mind you), but Trump doesn't go anywhere except the White House and his shithole golf course.
In order to assassinate him, it would probably have to be an inside job. That seems exceptionally unlikely.
- He's also useful. A lot of the kinds of people who might wish to be rid of him back in the day would much rather put him to use for their own ends.

very small... I mean, can you imagine the accuracy needed for a bullet to find his brain?
- Or his heart!
- Well how many bullets to the ass do you think it would take to put a man down? Especially considering the generous proportions of Trump's rump.
  Its a target you can't miss.
- The area a sniper shoots to hit is about the size of a peach pit and isn't actually a part that's involved in cognition but rather it does all the autonomic shit you need to survive.
  
  This is the type of alternative thinking we need to solve all our problems

Martyrdom is an honour that Trump doesn’t deserve. If we are lucky, he will die in prison of old age.
- We will never be lucky, so somebody shoot him now
  
  You’re going to have a long list of next in lines
- I’ll take assassination… it will be annoying to watch people act like he his some great figure but at least the damage he is doing will be over. As far as prison goes … heh … never going to happen. Our justice system doesn’t send wealthy individuals to jail… especially ex presidents.
- if we're lucky, he'll be fed into a chipper shredder feet first on live television as a warning to other would-be fascists.

Statistically, he'll die of poor health in the next four years. He's very unhealthy, and very old. Medicine can only do so much.
- We thought that when he got covid though.
  Some people are kept alive through sheer meanness.
  
  My hypothesis: narcissistic people live longer, because they apply the placebo effect at all times to themselves.
  
  It's said that the good die young. That orange shitstick might be nearly immortal.
  
  It’s the mean granny rule.
  
  And in that case, access to treatment not available to the general public yet.
- Keep sending him burgers and fries. Fried in lard too.
- If he's got dementia, he'll probably die within 10 years of his first symptoms, and that's been a while. It'll still be too long, obviously.
- One can only hope....

I'm surprised it hasn't been taken care of already.
- There's definitely been a few attempts (though I'm not convinced they weren't false flags)
  
  false flags
  Who the fuck tries to do a Photo Op after a gunman tried to kill you?
  Also, how did secret service know there's only one gunman?
  Seems fishy 🤔

Something that will really perk up my attention is if people start shooting at his security. That will indicate anger is so ripe that even protecting him makes you a target.

I hear he's planning a parade even bigger than Anwar Sadat's.

It's hard to say. He's definitely closer to it than any president since JFK. But security is way better these days. And before the FBI comes knocking on my door, this is just an objective analysis.
We've already had a shooter with a near miss. So clearly there's the will to do this among some segment of the population. Probably a conservative who feels betrayed or person who is truly far left, (not just a progressive).
However, security during the campaign and for JFK was a lot less than it is now. It's going to be a lot harder to get close enough with a rifle. If you think of a plan the USSS has already thought about it and probably has a counter of some sort.
So while he's definitely the closest, I don't think we'll see another president assassinated unless they do something truly stupid like gut the USSS.
- We’ve already had a shooter with a near miss. ... Probably a conservative who feels betrayed or person who is truly far left, (not just a progressive).
  That person had been searching for info on the schedules of both Biden and trump. That along with some of the other info we learned about him makes me think it wasn't so much a partisan political motivation as the desire to become famous and/or take someone famous down on his way off the planet.
  
  I mean, it takes all kinds right? A desire to go out big can manifest in so many ways and he didn't go after an A list actor, or a CEO, or any number of other high profile people. There is a reason he decided on Trump, even if his original impetus was suicide.
  
  But if the school shooting crowd decides that going after presidents gets them more attention, then only one of them has to get lucky.
- That first attempt the shooter was seen beforehand and they did a quick check...he did end uo getting into position again AND took the shot.
  Needless to say when security is that incompetent, it is highly likely he'll see his demise in such a manner.
  
  That's part of my point though, he's going to have the very best and about ten times the people on the job as compared to his security detail back then.

Calling it now: it will be one of his MAGA supporters who feels betrayed somehow.
- Well they last guy to take shot was
- Hell hath no fury like a MAGAt made look stupid

take out JD. too
- I'm still amazed that sniveling removed JD Vance ever qualified as a US Marine.
  
  Maybe the marines saw him snacking on a box of crayons and they got confused, assuming he must be one of theirs?
  
  Marketing aside, any normative young person can pass boot camp. (And basic training) The military gets worried when the pass rates for those courses gets low. Versus keeping pass rates low for schools like special squirrel.
  
  It is a testimony to Marine training and the DI's that they got that couch fucking weirdo Vance up to speed enough to be a Marine.
  
  The standards for marines aren't high in the brains department, just the couch fucking

Shitty people seem to be indestructible, like Hitler and the bunker bomb. Stalin died of a stroke (probably).
- I mean it's not coincidence, they live in fear. Paranoia does keep you alive if people are actually trying to kill you.
  
  Trump is too moronic to be paranoid

I think he's more likely to have a massive Big Mac Attack and just keel over. Which would be a good thing because his opportunist coattail riders will claw each other to pieces trying to be the top dog, or rat or cockroach. It will frag the whole Magapublican party. I just wish he'd hurry it up. Chow down, Donny boy.
- Sadly there have been people who lived to be 99 or 100 while having remarkably unhealthy lifestyles.
  
  Wouldn't really surprise me if Orangeboy happened to possess superlongevity genes. He's always had pretty incredible luck for stumbling out of the way of just about every consequence of his own actions.

Official death reason: assassination
Actual death reason: hit by a golf ball.
- That is why Luigi is my favorite character when playing Mario Golf.

- What part of the multiverse are you from, friend? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Koch
  
  to be fair, perhaps we are not in the worst of all multiverses. I would say my heart goes out to him, but... you know.
- Those parents are a huge yikes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch_family
  I think they were talking about one of the 2 shitty ones dying, David Koch. Isn't Charles the other one?
  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/08/new-civil-liberties-alliance-lawsuit-trump-tariffs-china/82996118007/
- I thought one had passed?

I would love to see it but the real change can only come from dems sweeping midterms.
There is a whole order of succession which empowers the christofascit VP and then christofascist house speaker, christofascist senate leader, christofascist secretary of state, etc.
There is a chance the cult of personality crumbles, but also a chance he becomes a martyr.
- The cult of personality won't matter once the Christian Nationalist movement takes hold.
- the only way the cult of personality is changing is if they start putting Thorazine in the drinking water

I think by the time we hit 2026 there will be tens of millions who voted MAGA who wish that last year's attempt would have succeeded, but logistically, it's basically impossible now. Anything that might get Trump would probably have to be powerful enough to take out a whole crowd, and that's just very unlikely.
It's also debatable whether it would even be a good thing. Political assassinations always have ramifications that weren't planned for, but on the other hand, Trump is basically a cult leader and cults always shrivel a bit when the leader passes on.
- Anything that might get Trump would probably have to be powerful enough to take out a whole crowd, and that's just very unlikely.
  Hard disagree, Ukraine takes consumer drones and turns them into pinpoint bombers or ultra fast suicide drones. They are VERY effective.
  IMO the only reason political violence hasn't been more common is people afraid of losing what they have. But they're soon to lose it anyway.
- Except for the assassination of Abe, which was a resounding success by any measure. The perp got everything he wanted and more.
  
  President Garfield also got merked. Mostly the fault of an RFK-grade doctor than the actual shooter, though. I hope we get that for Trump - he deserves to die at the paws of his own incompetent administration.
- You have said the actual truth

I'd say 100% if there was any sort of karmic balance to the universe.
- A clean death would not satisfy karma
- If there were really karmic balance, Krasnov would die slowly from a humiliating and very painful natural cause.

As much as I hate the guy I hope he isn't killed. The last thing we need is republicans having a martyr, especially before they find out how bad for them he is.
With tariff fallout there are decent chances they will not have a majority for a long time. After the tariff act of 1930 they went from having 14 seats more than democrats to a low of 16 seats out of 96 In senate in just 8 years. After that they had a senate majority once and congress majority twice in the next 50+ years.
- I think the Republicans personally hate him. His only use is as a charismatic rabble rouser. Without him they will lose the only guy truly able to get their movement together.
  
  Unfortunately GOPers are too cowardly to do anything about him.

It’s a question that can’t really be answered until it can be answered

i still wonder. HOW DID THAT ONE GUY MISS?!
- Range - Trump was over ~~300~~ 150 yards away from the shooter. Thanks for the correction
  Equipment - AR pattern rifles ( I think it was a Daniel defense) with a red dot sight. That setup is for quick target acquisition and field of view. It is not meant for hitting distant targets.
  Shooting conditions - The shots were taken outdoors, where there was a cross breeze.
  Difficult Target - if you've ever seen trump on stage, he has this weird wobble he does all the time, which shifts his head rapidly and unpredictably from side to side multiple feet. He had to get hit in the head too. He probably was wearing soft body armor at this point, and there are multiple ambulances nearby and he gets priority medical care. Anything less than instantly lethal would not take him out. So it had to be a headshot.
  Counter-fire. There are multiple trained and properly equipped snipers guarding trump. There was an armed policeman trying to get on the building with the shooter. This is not simply lying down at a range and taking your time.
  TL; DR - it's not like videogames.
  
  Range - Trump was over 300 yards away from the shooter.
  He was around 150 yards. Not 300.
  But if he had a proper target rifle in a better long range caliber and a telescopic sight he would have had a much better chance of succeeding.
  At that distance and wind conditions a chest shot would have been better. But he aimed for the head.
- Half of me still thinks that whole “attempt” was staged
  
  Exhibit A: The Photo Op with the fist raised
  I mean, who the fuck just stands there like an idiot after a gunman supposedly tried to kill you. It's like they knew there's only one gunman. Sus af 🤔
  
  I also wondered that, but honestly man there's almost no fucking way. 😂 That was a very real bullet, that went through his ear, and killed the man behind him. Combine that with all the different random-ass factors others have mentioned with the ludicrously small margin of error. Turn your head at just the right time or fucking die.
  Combine that with the shooter being a random child that looks like he had fetal alcohol syndrome, that's the "man" carefully staging a very near-miss shooting. 🥴 I mean FFS, look at his face. I wouldn't trust him with a complicated McD's order, let alone shooting at my fucking ear and not killing me. 😂
  The only way it was staged was if you could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Trump was very willing to die & become a martyr, which frankly I think he's not against if it came to that, but it's very clear the man loves life/living. Trump doesn't want to die.
- Did anyone actually bother to xray his head?
- Darkest timeline, am I right?
- https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1832946928142750102

Highly unlikely and I hope to god it doesn't happen. Imagine the hagiography that would surround the piece of shit were that to happen.
- hagiography
  1: biography of saints or venerated persons
  neat word, thanks
- He's already a head of the cult, this damage is done
- Do you remember how much nobody cared when he smeared ketchup on his face?
  
  Because that was a pathetic nothing. His head getting back and to the left might be a different story
- And it's not like JD Couchmolester, DeSantis or their other top figures would be preferable.

🤞🏻

Time travelers already tried and failed. It's a fixed point in time.
- Yeah we were only a few inches away from the good timeline
- A canon event

Praying every day to gods I don't even believe in.
- It's okay they don't believe in you either
  
  I would question their omniscience if they did.

He’s not going to do any more of those mass rallies so long as he can get his narcissistic supply somewhere else.
- He's literally ordering a dictator-style parade for himself.

He certainly has a lot of enemies but I don’t think it’s likely with his upped security being President again. I still can’t believe we were an inch short of a Trump free world…
- I don't know that would solve everything anyway. Worst case, he'd become some kind of martyr.
  
  I'd take that chance.
  He's a cult leader. Cults tend to collapse after the cult leader dies. It was so close to the election I don't think there would have been enough support for another Republican to win in the chaos that would have ensued within the Republican party.
  It almost certainly would have resulted in a better future.
  Kid shouldn't have aimed for the head. Harder to hit and nothing there anyway.
  
  Back then I don't know who could have picked up the reins and taken over.
  Vance didn't have the following he has now.
  Ramaswamy wasn't white enough (I don't think it's possible for the right or center to vote non-white-male for president.)
  Nikki wouldn't have worked either, she couldn't be dumpy and she also didn't have a penis.
  So it's hard to say. I think the magat mentality is here to stay regardless of if dumpy is around, but the absolute control of the party probably wouldn't survive him.
  
  Worst case, he’d become some kind of martyr.
  I used to think this also, but after really looking at the current situation, I don't think it would last more than a news-cycle. It would be the biggest, hugest deal for Conservatives maybe ever, they would scream and cry and performatively act like Jesus was nailed up a second time, but then immediately pivot the emotional momentum to a new candidate to seize power with.
  The reason why is because when JFK was assassinated, the whole country loved him. The only people who love Trump are the nation's stupidest and most brainless, zero attention span, zero actual values. They would act like it's a martyrdom incident but get completely distracted a week later by some other political power trying to capitalize on the power vacuum.
  
  In fact, I think that if he were to die right now he would be immediately elevated to martyrdom - that being the catalyst for martial law.

Gotta also consider the odds that he's not there for much longer anyway. The Project 2025/Heritage Foundation people got JD Vance in as VP as they wanted--he's one of them.
So I've been predicting since he won that the 25th Amendment will be used (if something else doesn't happen to him), probably not until after the midterms so Vance can still run for 2 more terms. They need to set up the right conditions before ousting him, which will be making him look physically incapable of continuing, like saying he's had a stroke or something. Congress/Senate has to believe it so they'll go along with it.
- If that's really their plan, they'll have a rude awakening. They created this monster, and you don't replace the person at the center of a cult of personality that easily.
  
  That's why they can't go with the obvious route of saying he has dementia issues--the cult wouldn't hear of that. But he can conveniently have a debilitating event or illness. Sure, the cult will have conspiracy theories, which is why they have to be sure to make it look plausible. But even if they have to resort to him having an "unfortunate accident", there's nothing the cult can really do about it, he'll be gone. He's just too unpredictable and uncontrollable for them to let him keep going rogue so much. Destroying the global economy and causing a worldwide depression is not part of their plans.
- This. I'm guessing the insiders and Mr. Moneybags are observing plenty of evidence of mental decay. Enough to invoke the 25th.
  
  The 25th can be used for any reason, not just mental decay. We already know the magats are fine with the mental decay.

My hope the shooter is a Big Mac.

When the rule of law has been abandoned then frontier justice makes an appearance.

God please no. We dont need him to be a martyr.
- MAGA is pretty much entirely a cult of personality. Take out the Jim Jones, and they tend to go back into hiding. That's the only hopeful part of all of this is that when Trump finally dies (by any means necessary), I'd bet everything that MAGA goes with him. Or at least as a political force. Hillibillies are still gonna hillbilly, but without Trump to embolden them, they'll go back to ranting about 'libs after finishing up fucking their cousins and nothing more.
- He's a narcissist. It would be a good deterrent for other potential despots who are also self serving
  Not saying it should happen, just martyrdom is maybe the least among the consequences if it did

He'll probably succumb to his lifestyle choices first. He might even get bird flu or a virus long thought eradicated. It would be really tragic if it was something climate related like his Florida home sinking into the ocean.

Unlikely any bigger conspiracy or billionaire will try. They could wait 3.5 years and not have to bother with anything illegal.
MAGA candidates don't seem to do well without Trump, so even if a republican wins it's unlikely to be whatever this is.
If he is somehow allowed to take a dump on the constitution and get a 3rd term, maybe.
- 3.5 years assumes Dems have anyone who could beat him in an election. I have my doubts on that.
  
  3.5 years assumes there will be an election at all, or a fair one. They rigged the last one, they will definitely rig the next one.
  But I don't think he'll take the chance. He was heavily hated in 2020, and if anything, he is already hated even more. The mid-terms are shaping up to be a blood bath. He can't afford to lose his congressional majorities in either house, and have Dems take over even one of them, or they'll control investigative committees with subpoena and arrest power. And this time they will be much more heavily motivated to be aggressive. Americans wanted bold action from Biden, and they didn't get it, which kept the 2024 race close enough to steal. I just saw Adam Schiff in an interview, and he indicated that the Dems recognize that they didn't act "boldly" enough, and they suffered at the polls for it. It sounds like they may have learned their lesson.
  So he will create a situation in which he can declare Martial Law and suspend elections, and he'll do it before the mid-terms. My prediction is that it will happen next year, in late-summer/ early fall, after a Hellish summer of violent protests around the country, that he will instigate. He will time his announcement close enough to election day that there won't be time to get it through the courts, and we will skip a mid-term election for the first time on history.
  Dems will scream, but they never actually DO anything, so that will soften up the citizens to accept it when he skips the presidential election, too. Then he doesn't have to justify why he deserves a third term, his second term will just never end.
  He may even start a war (you know he's itching to do that) to justify keeping Martial Law, and claim he's only doing what FDR did, and not leaving while a war is going on. That's not what happened, FDR was fairly elected 4 times, but that's the excuse he'll use, and the MAGA Nazis will accept it.
  
  Unless something changes, he can't run again.

I was watching an amateur video of him, not 500 feet away, on a golf course a few weeks ago. What do the kids say? Cooked? The last guy who almost got him by a few inches was a registered Republican btw. Of course it's more likely that he dies to double cheeseburgers now. Sad that the ones who will replace him are arguably much worse than him.

If it didnt happen last time, and a close yet unsuccessful attempt was made this time. My money is on, Trump lives to start harping about a third term in 2028.
If it happens, its going to be a gavrillo princip type of deal, the more planning that goes into it, the more likely the conspirators get caught simply for the amount of surveilence that goes on in this world.
if anyone is going to merk a world leader. its going to be something spur of the moment, wrong turn, wrong person, wrong time.
- its going to be something spur of the moment, wrong turn, wrong person, wrong time.
  The way history likes to repeat, it'll be something stupid involving a sandwich
  
  Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans
  
  Donny dumps wanted dunkin donuts and didn't expect a hole in his head?
  
  See my money is Krasnov going out like Elvis

He is messing with rich peoples money now so I’d say that’s pretty risky.

Third time's the charm.
- His cult will get him, I have no doubt. Every single one of those insane nutbags wants a piece of his fame, and thats a sure fire way to get it.
  
  Hehe. Fire.

Pretty low, considering the quality of the attempts so far.

You're absolutely right that, if he is, it will probably be an inside and/or professional job, not some rando trying to show off for an underage Jodie Foster. He's pissing in some dangerous people's weeds right now.
- We could start a GoFundMe to hire a hitman, imagine the uber killer we could get with those billions!
- Are pro hitmen real though? I don't think I've ever seen news about a pro hit job.
  
  The person in the video of that healthcare CEO being assassinated looked pretty professional.
  At the very least, people like that do exist at the state-level in nations with robust intelligence apparatuses.

The remaining Koch brother is already pouring money into legal challenges against Trump...
Wow, it had gotten so bad, huh? For once, the market is genuinely correcting itself!
- The master's tools will never dismantle the master's house

Not likely enough. There is already enough for his entire office to be the first ones prosecuted for treason but nobody got the balls.

Sportsbooks aren’t allowed to take bets on illegal activities so we may never know
- *Legal sportsbooks
  
  Since Betting markets have been shown to be a good predictor know of any that could predict this?
- Sportsbooks and betting on random shit like this doesn't indicate anything other than that society is eroding at such a rapid rate that the rise of sports betting and the incredible destruction it is has brought upon places like the U.S. has gone relatively unnoticed amid all the other dumpster fires.
  There is no intelligence to this, it is just another casino, the kind of casino that people have always opened at the end of things when nobody is really paying attention enough to shut them down.

a large enough mob could pull him out of mar a lago. i'm not saying it would be easy.
- Have you seen the robotic dogs waundering that place?
  But, you're right, a large enough mob could break into anywhere.
- true just wage an insurrection against mar a lago, lmao, it's all legal anyway, it's just a "protest"
  /s ofc

May the Lord look down upon us in favour.
Even my Trump loving coworker thinks he's psychotic now.
- Now that it's hitting his retirement account, I assume?
  
  No we're Canadian.

It's probably pretty low. The secret service was already caught with their pants down once when that guy took a shot at Trump over the summer, so they're probably going to be on high alert for a while. On top of that, Trump is better protected as the President than a candidate, with access to the White House, Air Force One, the Beast (his Limo), etc. There are probably more people who want to take a shot at him than other Presidents, but I doubt it's gonna happen.
- A counterpoint: unmanned technology has developed really fast recently. In old times, one had to be motivated as hell, because taking a shot at a president meant likely death.
  In our days, for a technically capable adversary, an attempt costs only moderate amounts, escape is far more likely, and tools can rigged with self-destruction mechanisms to considerably hinder evidence collection.
  I'd say that barriers are lower due to drones and robots. Then again, to get drones and robots pointed at oneself, one has to piss off people who have better things to do. That is, people who are unlikely to be desperate, since they could likely emigrate and find a well-paying job in a week.
  If I try to predict a profile, I come up with "a technically competent person with an incurable disease, no longer covered by health insurance". Or perhaps "a war veteran with an incurable disease".
  
  Maybe, but I imagine the Secret Service has a drone-attack plan. I would guess that most of D.C. is probably a no-fly zone for drones, and they probably lock down the White House it anyone violates it. I think as long as he continues to split his time between Mar-a-Lago and the White House, Trump is relatively safe.
  If he starts doing more speaking tours, though, that might make him more vulnerable. There's also a staggering amount of disorder and incompetence because of his attacks on federal workers and his terrible cabinet appointments, so I guess it's possible he's already opened himself up to security risks. Who knows.

If he keeps pissing off China, maybe.
The left takes more of a peaceful protest and hope for midterms approach.
- He's doing Xi's work of destroying the US as a world power. Why would Xi be mad at him?

Pretty likely. The chances of getting assassinated are essentially dependent on two things:
how easy would it be
how many people want to make it happen
I believe that there's enough of the second to more than compensate for the first.
- Based on how the first attempt went, I feel like “how easy it will be” isn’t going to be too much of a roadblock either

I'd say there's zero chance, he could probably easily outlive us all somehow.
- Only the good die young.
- And he's laughing all the way to McDonald's
  
  Sure but his doctors are keeping him alive regardless, clogged arteries no problem they'll clear that right up too. He will outlive people far healthier than him. That's just how these things go.

Nah he chokes on KFC
- You just reminded me about when Bush almost choked to death on a pretzel.

I'll be honest, seeing this sudden shift to openness talking about this when knowing how controlled the narrative is even here, makes me think this might actually be part of the narrative they're now trying to push.
I could definitely be wrong about that, but I've seen this brought up here a few times and even last night there was an AskReddit about what Americans would feel is the final straw to have Trump removed from power.
I actually was talking about this in a post a few days ago. If Vance suddenly succeeded Trump as president, it would not fix anything, and it would likely make things much worse

Well, considering he was an inch or two away from already being in this category, I'd say higher than otherwise. You can also say that since this DID happen, he will have increased security making it less likely. So, I guess I'm not too sure.