Will the tariffs lead to a recession?

I've noticed a correlation between people who think the tariffs are a good idea, and people who have no clue what tariffs are.
- Similar number of people think the president actually has the authority to do this.
  Congress is just fucking off
- While it's true in the majority of cases, it's not a one to one relationship.
  There's a few billionaire numpties who will eat regardless and see it as a way to reduce wages even further whilst charging more for their products .. profit!
  
  There’s a few billionaire numptie
  Like who?
  
  It’ll increase wages.
- God dammit. I was trying to make a joke about the correlation between the people I see breathing oxygen, and the stupid people I see. Then I was going to say there's also a correlation between the people I see NOT breathing oxygen, and also turning blue and falling to the floor.
  Then I realized the joke made it sound like I was defending tarrifs. Which wasn't the point I wanted to be making. So then I tried making a joke about there being a correlation between fat americans, and eating fast food. But then the joke wasn't even funny, or random. It was just boring.
  So then I saw a bird outside, and remembered I have a low attention span. So I ran outside to look at the bird. He looked back at me like "Why are you looking at me, human? I'm just sitting here being a bird. Are you trying to watch me poop? You are, aren't you? You realize that birds have no sphincter. So if I develop the urge to poop, there is a 100% chance it will come out immediately. You are never safe around birds to not poop on you. Which really kind of erases the old thing people used to think about birds targeting their car specifically to poop on from the sky. No removed. I'm just flying through the sky, and you're hundreds of feet below me, freely available to poop on. What are you going to do? Chase me? I will poop on you, and get away with it. Because I'm a bird."
  Then I came back inside, and realized I never thought of a joke, or something random to say here.
  Life is funny.
  
  Wow. You've accurately described every one of my posts that you'll never get to read because I just gave up and didn't type it all out.
  Fucking cloacas, amiright?
- Illuminating.

Based on US history? Yes. Based on the overwhelming majority of experts? Yes. Based on basic economic theory? Also Yes.

It should lead to removal. Tariffs are a congressional power, only.
- Throw it on the pile.
- They gave him emergency tariff powers. Idiots.

If the US tariffs stand, I think the chance of recession during this year already is near 100%.
So my guess is that the financial analysts are betting that there is a good chance like 50% that these tariffs are removed very quickly. And by very quickly I really mean VERY quickly, like in a matter of a couple of weeks.
The economy in many places around the world is already shifting away from USA. The obvious boycott by Canada and also in Europe by consumers, is only the surface.
To run a company you want stability, and companies all over the world are already seeking alternatives to USA, just as American companies are already seeking alternatives to imports, seeking stability at the cost of profitability, making price increases inevitable either way.
This will stall economic progress, it will create jobs and take away jobs in USA, but the jobs created will be lower wage than the ones that are lost. American production will take over low wage jobs from abroad, and despite the tariffs making competition easier on those jobs, it will not make them high wage jobs.
It will make US trading partners poorer, so they can afford less US imports. And companies are already looking towards ways the highest profit US exports can be replaced. Those are all in services, something not even considered in the moronic US trade deficit calculation. But the area where USA actually has huge surplusses, and at profits often nearing 90%!! Those jobs are at risk now!
All in all it will make both USA and trading partners relatively poorer. But probably USA will be hit the hardest, as the outside world has a more than twice as big trading block than USA has with itself. If that scales linearly, USA will be hit twice as hard by their own tariffs than the rest of the world.
Personally we've stopped buying everything American that we can. And as the one who does most of the shopping, I was actually surprised by the amount of American things we used.
The failing stock market will make it harder to find venture capital, and investments will go down. This too is guaranteed to slow down economic growth.
On a side note, USA has now forced EU to cooperate with China more on trade, something we held back on for security reasons.
But now that security balance has changed dramatically. USA is no longer a more secure partner than China is.
For instance USA is aligning more with Russia now than even China is!!
I don't see how this will not end with a recession for USA maybe already for 2nd and 3rd quarters, which I guess is the soonest possible actual recession (2 quarters of negative growth).
- I agree on all counts.
  I just can't see how the US could avoid a recession.
  A global recession is certainly possible or likely but much less-so.
- I think the chance of recession during this year already is near 100%.
  Year? I'll be surprised if we make MAY without a recession.
  
  I agree, but technically it needs to be 2 quarters in a row to be an official recession.

history tells us a possible answer....
that would be American's are FUCKED for a generation if this isn't stopped
- Millennials:
  
  Once in a lifetime...

No ... they will lead to a depression. There is a difference.

A recession is generally defined as two or more quarters with negative GDP growth.
Tariffs will absolutely cause that. They’re going to dampen US growth for years.
That’s only one simple definition though. Broadly I think the answer is still yes, this will cause US job losses, as you’re already seeing in the automotive industry. Job losses result in lower consumer spending, resulting in lower business revenue, and less business expansion and cost cutting, and it can become a reinforcing cycle.
Recessions can be mild or severe, so the jury is still out on whether the US will hold their tariffs, and how quickly the system adapts to the changes.

Literally already has.

Betteridge's law of headlines, for once, is wrong.

No, they are too late for that.
They could if Trump picked another other to implement his policies.