What is the view regarding the consequences of Brexit-style EU exits?
What is the view regarding the consequences of Brexit-style EU exits?
To preface: This is not in defence of the EU. There will be no imperialist apologia in this post/question.
The push for EU exits is overwhelmingly right-wing in the majority of EU countries. We knew beforehand what the result of a move like Brexit would be like for the UK, especially for the material conditions of the working class, at the very least in the short-term, which was quickly confirmed by the situation we can currently see.
While no one can claim that the EU's supposed 'rule of law' and institutions have managed to curb the resurgence of fascism, as evidenced by the popularity of fascist rhetoric and political parties in most EU countries, it still worth noting that they strongly oppose the EU nonetheless.
However minimal, right-wing and fascist parties are limited by the EU in their desired expression of xenophobic, queerphobic, abelist, anti-immigrant, and other generally hateful policies where marginalised people are used as scapegoats. Limitations they would very much like to be rid of.
The push for Brexit-style EU exits is an overwhelmingly right-wing project, where leftist anti-imperialist anti-EU voices are reduced to the fringes or are completely unheard of. The aftermath of the success of such a project, while it would weaken the EU, is shouldered by the most vulnerable, most marginalised groups of the working class in such countries. Immigrants, people of colour, the LGBTQ+ community, unhoused people, etc. who now have a fully unchained rabid dog going after them.
I thus pose the following questions:
In the pursuit of weakening the EU by voting 'leave' in Brexit or a Brexit-style referendum in Europe, knowing that it's overwhelmingly supported by right-wing and outwardly fascist movements who will be in power:
- Are we offering up the working class of imperialist countries, especially those who are most vulnerable and marginalised, as sacrificial lambs?
- Is it an unavoidable fate in the fight against imperialism?
- Are the working class of imperialist nations perceived as a sort-of global bourgeoisie in the global north/south relation?
- Is it always strategically correct for the left to back such movements even when they're under the overwhelming control of right-wing and fascist groups who will inevitably rise to power in the aftermath?
I am probably very wrong in multiple areas of my conception and analysis here so please do not hold back on calling them out.
The EU itself is an unreformable neoliberal institution and any slight socialist movement within its Member States would have a really hard time gaining success.
Leaving the EU could be a positive thing with regards to revolutionary potential. However, like you said, the only real push for such a thing come from right wing groups.
Personally I don't think far right groups within the Imperial core deserve critical support however destructive they are against US-EU hegemony. That doesn't mean that said groups don't give leftist movements an opportunity to exploit.
I'm not sure I understand what the stance to take would be in this instance. What is the opportunity that is being presented for leftist movements in this scenario? Should we be trying to take over the anti-EU rhetoric from the right with our own movements? I feel that this is very unlikely to succeed given how popular the far right is and how powerless the left is currently in a country like Germany for example.
In this scenario, should we push back against the movement to exit the EU so long as we know for certain that far right groups would inherit power in the aftermath? Or do we still support an EU exit and allow the short to medium-term damage to occur while trying to organise and focusing on mutual-aid for affected groups?
I'm not sure. I feel quite conflicted with supporting an EU exit where we're pretty-much asking the working class of that country to martyr themselves.
I'm not sure either what the correct thing to do is right now. If I look at our own party work, as a party that has grown tremendously in the last few years, is to first build a movement within our own country and not focus on the EU too much for now. We do send politicians to the EU though, in an attempt to get our voice heard over there.
It would also be economic suicide for many countries to leave the EU and the blowback of such a thing would be shoved down the throats of the workers. It's a difficult situation.
My expectation is that EU is going to fall apart within a decade, and different countries will either fall into US sphere of influence or join BRICS. Hungary and Slovakia are most likely to apply to BRICS, but we shouldn't rule out France and Germany either. If they get nationalist parties in power, then they will need to look for trade partners outside the west.
I think Serbia is the most likely to join BRICS, the US is already threatening sanctions on them. Also China-Serbian relations have been very succesful rebuilding Serbia dismantled (by US neolibs) industry.
What makes you think slovakia and hungary are up to join BRICS? I rarely see any mentions of them in international news which makes me assume theyre loyal to the EU.
Oh yeah Serbia is definitely joining BRICS, but they didn't make the mistake of joining the EU either. Both Slovakia and Hungary have been pursuing policy that's contrary to the EU, and the EU is now withholding billions from Hungary to punish them. The whole pipeline through Ukraine being shut down is very obviously being done to put pressure on Hungary and Slovakia as well since they were the main beneficiaries. Ultimately, the whole selling point of the EU is that it helps countries economically, but if that's no longer the case then the obvious next step is to look for new partners. BRICS also happens to be in a far better shape economically than the EU, and has far more to offer. Given that the war is likely to end this year, logistics to the east are going to be restored as well.
Don't let the door hit them both on the way out.
Will the countries that use the euro be able to keep the euro when they leave? How would a currency change affect them if they leave? This is NOT me advocating for keeping the EU, I’m just curious as I’ve heard that’s a problem. Something similar was brought up regarding Scottish independence, if they left the Union they wouldn’t be allowed to use the Pound.