I work in financial reporting, so I have a decent idea of what makes up things like operating profit/loss and Adjusted EBITDA.
This does not look good for Reddit and if the company only managed a $90.8m loss after jacking up API costs, nuking virtually every third-party client, backstabbing every power mod, giving alternatives like Lemmy and Kbin an actual user base and selling off user data to Google, then I fully expect things to get a lot worse on the site.
I don't know how in the hell they let it go as wrong as they did. They had all the eyeballs of the internet. They had all the Google search traffic. They had an API that encouraged tons of other people to make applications that link with them to display their content.
All they had to do was light touch monetization, and slightly stroke the egos of the mods. Every new phone, car, light bulb that ever came out had a place where it could be directed right at the people they want to sell it to. All they had to do was disguise it as an unboxing or a slightly pithy review. Hell, they could have gotten competitors to bid against each other. Chevy could have been on there dissing forward, Ford could have been on their dissing Dodge. They're so many opportunities there for monetization. They have control over their own algorithm.
Seeing a report like that, that they did all these things to raise funds and are still not profitable, is there any reason why anyone would invest? Surely the price can only go down from initial offering, right? Unless the price started very low.
He doesn't care about the ipo, or reddit, its employees, its "partners", or anyone who uses the site. He wants money now, and like a house fly he's not capable of learning.
Earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation. Interest is classed as other income and taxation is kinda self-explanatory.
Depreciation is spreading the cost of a fixed asset over the course of its useful life. So let's say you spend $40,000 on a machine that you expect to keep for 20 years, and scrap for $1,000 at the end of its expected life. You depreciate it on the straight-line basis (meaning it goes down by a fixed amount each financial year, or depreciate it by $1,950 each year. Straight-line isn't the only form of depreciation. Cars for example go down on a reducing balance basis, meaning their value goes down by a lot more during the early years of their lifespan.
Amortisation is like depreciation, but for long term loans and intangible assets (things like customer lists, patents, etc.)
I made a comment below about which of my old accounts were receiving the buy-shares offer. I don't know if what they're doing raises any speculation to someone with your background, but I'd be interested in hearing if it does.
Reading through that article you could probably find/replace with Reddit.
The complaint alleges that Vonage's officers decided to offer shares to customers because they knew institutional investors who normally buy IPOs would be reluctant to buy Vonage stock. Vonage has consistently lost money and has never been profitable.
Their R&D costs seem alarmingly high, when the most 'innovative' things we've seen come out of Reddit in recent years have been canned features like their own cryptocurrency and RPAN.
Other than that and Spez being paid a buttload in stock options...
You know the very credible sounding theory that Musk bought Twitter to drown it. He used Middle Eastern funds etc. and those people owning these gigantic funds had nightmares because Twitter made it so easy to organise mass unrest. I want to believe this crazy sounding theory since other option would be someone having such a capital, know how and influence is that dumb.
What if this is just a plot to kill Reddit? While crypto bros polluted it a lot, it was very similar with Twitter. Freedom of speech, diversity. It may have bugged people.
I receiced one of those special offer emails to buy stocks on Monday. Weren't those supposed to go only to power users? I haven't done anything with my account since the API debacle and wasn't a power user before.
I feel like their rug pull before the ipo doesn't work that good. I hope the gme bros will short reddit to the ground, that would be the best end to Reddit I can imagine. Fuck spez.
I was a semi-power user before leaving (13k link karma, 134k comments) and also received the IPO offer per email and per notification. I reported the notification as spam :)
It's so obvious that they want to squeeze some money out before everything goes down the drain.
I got one, too, which is hilarious because not only was I not a "power user," but I torched all of my comments and posts with Redacted 7 months ago and have not touched the site since. I even avoid it when it comes up in Google results for something I'm looking into.
But they still sent me one of these stupid IPO emails.
I mean, obviously there is no human oversight or thought process behind these whatsoever. We all knew that. Probably anyone who has an existing account and a positive karma score got one, and I'm not even sure the threshold is that high.
But I guess we're all here doing their work for them anyway, because here we are talking about -- even if it is to ridicule -- and generating "buzz." I'm sure that's what they want, somehow.
They are going out in stages based on # of mod actions or karma. I think the lowest Karma threshold in the final batch was 25k. Which seems like a lot, but isn't really, at least for the users they alienated in the API debacle.
This is just for the sign-up for information, though. Once they get the whole list they will start going down the list of sign-ups from the top, and start asking for money. Because this isn't a free share offering, it's a chance to buy at the IPO price. So even out of the list of Redditors who signed up, a bunch will pass, because if they had a few extra $10k sitting around, they would put anywhere else except Reddit.
And I don't think they have broken out how many shares are part of this program. (To be fair I haven't looked that closely). I predict that no matter how many people sign up, they will reject 90% just for the optics. They are only doing this for the free publicity, and rhe fact that they think Redditors will have emotional attachment to the shares for being let into the "club". So they will only give out enough for the press to write stories about it.
I got it as well. My accounts were banned... and then all the sudden an IPO comes along and the are unsuspended.... i went back in and redacted my accounts that got the email.
Your comment made me go back and check, and I definitely got unbanned at some point. I was site-banned for mass edit>deleting my comments on all my accounts during the API evacuation. One sub saw me doing it, and banned that first account. Whatever, no big loss cuz I’m scorching things on my way out the door anyways. When I did the same with the second account, both accounts were banned site-wide for ban evasion, (because that second account also had comments on that same sub.) And that same pattern happened with every account I had.
But now they’re all unbanned. I wonder if Reddit went back and unbanned old accounts, to try and boost their user numbers prior to the IPO.
I did not get one and my account has a shit ton of karma. But the bio says that Reddit can go down in flames and to go to Lemmy, so that's probably why.
Remember when they killed API access claiming it cost the 10s of millions each year? Turns out they could have just not spent so much on reddit avatars and we'd all still be there today.
They could have just paid the CEO a little less to cover it too. It was just greed so they could sell the data at a pittance, even though the cat is already out of the bag.
The two options to fix that are either buy more servers or make enough idiotic decisions to drive your user base away that traffic is no longer an issue anymore.
An ugly new logo, continued development on world's shittiest mobile app, and a terrible brand new UI for the website (not to be confused with the previous terrible new UI)
Oh yeah, they also did some NFT bullshit, almost forgot about that one.
they're selling the ability to harvest data, not provide a platform for anything particularly useful.. they are developing data harvesting tools, including for AI..
There are 54 pages of risk factors, which, after reading many S-1 filings over the years, seems pretty long. One of the most notable is the sentence, “We have incurred substantial losses during our history and may never achieve profitability.”
My understanding is on these fillings you're supposed to give a full accounting of all the risks so investors can't sue you later. It's like going for surgery where they say you could die - not saying it's likely, but tries to get them off the hook.
Because spez insists on chasing the newest tech shiny - but only after it's peaked - NFTs, crypto, RPAN, etc. And although it may yet turn around for him and for reddit, notice that he only jumped onto the AI boom three months after last spring's series of AI announcements, showing that he's once again way behind the times.
Edit: one thing has always struck me since his interview last summer. spez said something like "reddit will continue to be profit-driven until the profits arrive". Like the arrival of profits was inevitable. Like he didn't need to do anything except wait. Just be patient and the profits will arrive in their own time, not like things have to be envisioned and planned and put in place to get profits, just ... they'll arrive. Some day.
It seems a remarkably lackadaisical attitude for a CEO to have.
spez said something like “reddit will continue to be profit-driven until the profits arrive”. Like the arrival of profits was inevitable. Like he didn’t need to do anything except wait.
"It’s easy to sit there and say you’d like to have more money. And I guess that’s what I like about it. It’s easy... Just sitting there, rocking back and forth, wanting that money." Deep Thoughts with Jack Handey, Saturday Night Live
Probably doesn't help that Reddit has spent years cultivating some of the most advertiser unfriendly content available (out of the top 100 visited sites). I doubt anyone's chomping at the bit to advertise on pages like r/jailbait, r/piracy, and r/fatpeoplehate. Even if the worst of the worst have been banned the overall "culture" can't be erased as quickly
This does not stop companies being successful in IPOs and giving share holders lucrative gains. Take Atlassian as an example of a company seen as successful but is not profitable.
Dumb people are going to see headlines about “AI” and “the first social media IPO in a long time,” and they’re going fork over money. Also speculators are going to buy after they speculate that other speculators are going to buy speculatively.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they manipulated the discussion around the stock as well. Bot army or admin downvotes on critical discussions, and lots of upvotes on the hype.
Better, buy a lottery ticket with it. That way it might be worth as much as the ash you'd have anyway, but there's a chance you'll become a millionaire.
Or Bitcoin, but fair warning: you might find yourself tempted to start a rap career, and that's almost never advisable.
Whole thing is sketchy AF. I hope very few of its selected users falls for the scam invitation to buy early shares. They're not only exploiting them for free content and free moderation, they want them to help pay for Spez's ludicrous compensation.
So, three of my old accounts apparently qualified for the buy-shares offer. Two of them were over the 200k karma threshold to get the offer. Interestingly, the third account had only 191k karma and got the message a day or two later.
Even more interestingly, yesterday a fourth account that I haven't posted to in over a decade received the offer, and this one only had 50k karma. Admittedly, several accounts were mods, but they were mods of extremely small, very inactive subs, and I had de-modded myself after deleting my data. They also sent an email to the my registered email address for the fourth account (but I don't know if that's relevant because none of my other accounts had emails registered).
I'm not sure what's going on. Did they get so little response from the early offers that they're going to the accounts of former mods or lowering the karma requirements? I know a couple of my accounts ended up connected by IP information; did they try to contact my old fourth account by PM and email because it was somehow connected to the higher-level accounts, or because they're getting desperate? Maybe they're just trying to get lots of numbers to show that redditors are eager to participate, to gin up an ignorant public's enthusiasm prior to the IPO?
I have to think that, at some level, they're getting desperate, because it seems so much effort to go to, to dig up an account that hasn't posted in a decade and then send PMs and emails to it.
I have 56k of comment karma and only 792 post karma (no K there,only 792) but I got an email as well. Technically I guess I'm a mod because I started a sub with another guy but it never saw anything beyond the greetings post. However my account is over 13 years old so maybe that counts for something?
And yeah, I have no intention of wasting my money. They might see a slight profit initially as some might view this as the "new shiny", but then I fully expect it to tank the moment the investors get a look at their records and start jumping ship.
I’ve known about shorting for a while but this might actually push me into learning the ins and outs of how. Because it would be nice to profit off this goin tits up.
In 2023, the company’s revenue was $804.0 million. Research and development, at $438.3 million, was more than half, an awfully big number for a company of this age.
What the heck are they doing‽
Edit: oops, Semi-Hemi-Demigod beat me to it. Hello, fellow binner!
I am curious. If you were a Chief officer or VP or something. What kind of changes would you do to make it profitable? Reduce server count? Roll back old.reddit? Just cut overhead? Get rid of Spez? How can they possibly make it profitable given where they are now?
That's why I said given where they are now, how would it even be possible. What can they do outside of raise prices of reddit stickers or ad-free reddit.
It needs to become profitable because it was unprofitable for 20 years. Would you dump millions into something that doesn't even have the chance to make you money in the first place? Reddit wouldn't even exist anymore.
There has never been a profitable social media company.
Facebook might have started out as a social media company, but it's only profitable now because it's part of an advertising duopoly that has almost all online ads completely locked up. Their actual business is renting eyeballs to advertisers. The social media part of it is just data collection for their advertising.
Reddit can't compete with the big 2 as an ad platform. They don't have the reach of the other two, and never will. So, it's not going to be a good money making platform, but it might be able to have a niche and cover its costs. There are ways it could do that and not be awful for users.
They could partner with Hollywood studios to promote shows and movies, provide forums to discuss them that are safe for those brands. They could work with local governments to be a place to release important information. Governments used to do that on Twitter, but Twitter has gone to shit. This isn't stuff that will send Reddit shares to the moon like their VC backers want. But, it could survive.
Instead, they're going to follow the Elon Musk playbook and it will die.
AMA used to be a pretty big draw for lots of people who didn't regularly use the site and often made international news, but they fucked that right up.
If reddit allowed third party apps again that would probably be enough to get me back. Maybe in another 5 years it won't but right now Lemmy only wins cause the reddit app experience is bad enough to drive me away.
Yeah, turned out I was actually more loyal to the app I was using than I was to the platform. Though I was also pretty good to the platform, I contributed and interacted daily and often spent money buying gold. I tend to take the attitude that if I'm getting a lot of use out of something I don't mind spending a little to support it. That's all in the past now and I wonder how many other paying users they burned.
VIP posts which you have to subscribe to a user to view. Reddit takes a cut of the subscription fee. With the sheer amount of OnlyFans models who astroturf the fuck out of the NSFW subs, it feels beyond stupid that Spez isn't cutting out the middle man and competing with the likes of OF, Fansly, Patreon and Subscribestar.
Add more incentives to subscribe to Reddit Premium, i.e. enhanced search functionality, the ability to time travel back to the frontpage from a previous date.
Improve the official Reddit app to the point where it's on-par with previous third party offerings.
Bring back RPAN as a fully-fledged livestreaming platform with fewer restrictions. Introduce ads (Premium users get ad-free viewing) and revenue sharing for partnered creators.
Change content and moderator guidelines to curb power users.
Pivot towards short-form video content as a separate section of the site to compete with the likes of TikTok.
4 because video live streaming is stupid expensive. Twitch only survives cause they're owed by Amazon who owns numerous data centers to support it. Same deal with yt.
6 because everyone's already doing short form video and we don't need another tiktok alternative. We already have Instagram and YouTube, and their server infrastructure likely far exceeds that of reddit.
It can't because it's actively hostile to the users that make it its content in favor of recreating a more massive version of the Stanford prison experiment. Although that seems to be a fad to the people naturally attracted to acting out their power fantasies in any sort of reddit-like social network, particularly those who want to act out Minority Report.
Anyone else here concerned about what this means for the health of the ecosystem? If reddit was never sustainable and we are well and truly past a phase of consolidation there is potentially a lot of history / info to loose here. The damage has been done already by the funding model. While the return to federation and private hosting is nice, there is a potential "dark" age.
Can't help but feel like we're getting there already with most sites having the exact same problem. I think Facebook might be the only site that actually makes money due to always prioritising money, everyone else has dominated the market by operating at a loss for the past 2 decades and now suddenly oops we decided we need money.
I could see a Wikipedia-style donation model working to keep lots of different servers up. But I can't see it happening for servers hosting exclusively news + memes + whatever random communities people want to add.
I _could _ see it happening for dedicated broad-topic or semi-niche instances (instances for gaming, investing, Linux, music production, etc.) each hosting a collection of related and maybe more niche communities (for CSGO, Bitcoin, Arch, EDM production).
As they become more popular, server hosting costs increase, and at some point they might need to ask for donations to keep afloat. People are willing to throw a little money towards something they enjoy, especially if it's their choice to do so. And they feel good about it. And instances that stay around longer gain more users, more usability, more credibility (assuming a non-toxic community).
I could definitely see it leading down a path of growth and prosperity for the platform. However, now that I typed this out, I could see it both working positively, and being abused and exploited, so 🤷