10mo ago

Trump will pull US out of NATO if he wins election, ex-adviser warns

www.cnn.com ‘US will be out of NATO’ in second Trump term, former senior adviser warns | CNN Politics

As US allies reel from Donald Trump’s weekend comments encouraging Russia to attack European allies if they don’t meet NATO budget contribution goals, multiple former Trump advisers warn in my upcoming book that the former president will seek to formally withdraw the US from the NATO alliance if he ...

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The United States has maintained longstanding support to NATO. Most recently, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, enacted on December 22, 2023, prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress.[71] This bill was a response to Donald Trump's repeated expressions of interest in withdrawing from the organization.[72][73]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO#United_States
That link also claims the Greens want out of NATO, so I guess they see eye-to-eye with Trump on that one? Honestly, it makes me less likely to support the Greens now that I know that.
- The Green Party in the US is just an extension of the Kremlin aimed at peeling votes away from Democrats in key races.
  
  Don’t worry it’s the same in Europe
- The US Greens are largely subsidized by Republican funders, and Green presidential candidates have been dinner guests of Putin. The US Greens aren’t an independent environmentalist party but are a GOP stalking horse.
- Oh boy, they think Ukraine should also negotiate with Putin under a cease fire: https://www.gp.org/proposal_1155_gpus_calls_for_ceasefire_to_end_ukraine_war
  But apparently they advocate pacifist ideas. No real foundation in reality.
  
  Pretty hard for me to see a difference between a pacifist and a tankie
- The Greens haven't been the greens since Nader.
- Does that apply just for 2024?
  
  Good question and I do not know. And my searching isn't coming up with a good answer either.
- Which greens? The Scottish greens?
  
  Yes. The Scottish Greens. That's definitely for sure who I was talking about.

His father should have pulled out.

But remember folks! There’s a lot of (disillusioned) people here that would like everyone to know that Trump and Biden are exactly the same!
- No. Just no. We pressure Biden because we want him to be better. We believe he can be. Trump is a lost cause who should be in prison for attempting a coup.
  
  No, you do it because you're a weaksauce milquetoast coward who goes after the weaker party in a confrontation because you care more about avoiding conflict than you do about what's right.
  And you're alienating all of the pro-Palestine people who want a third party, and literally anyone else who wants literally anyone else in office other than those two cretins.
  It won't kill you to support something different instead of being a cowardly little weasel for once in your life, I promise you.
- absolutely no one has ever legitimately argued that. the point is that both choices suck and we get no say in it
  
  "The left is just as bad."
  
  both choices suck
  What puerile nonsense.
  Trump already demonstrated that he was a complete disaster and Russian asset, and I hate linking to the evil empire, but:
  r/WhatBidenHasDone

It would backfire like Brexit. Imagine the USA openly shunted by all former allies about their war crimes and other international crimes. The US forgets they currently can get away with a lot, and they do, because they are also an important ally. If you remove their NATO support, what reason is left to whistle ignorance?
- The US forgets they currently can get away with a lot, and they do, because they are also an important ally
  I think it's only Trump who forgets this not the US. I am not even sure he understands it really
  
  It's not only Trump.
  It's also Trump voters and voters who stay at home and let him back into office.
  I'll be pleasantly surprised if a majority of American voters turn out against him.
  Last time it was about 1 in 3 voted for him, 1 in 3 voted against him, and 1 in 3 didn't show up.
- The US getting held accountable for it's war crimes? Sounds too good to be true.
  
  Yeah, can y'all vote Trump meow?
  /S kinda
- Brexit was a disaster because the UK economy was third-place-and-shrinking in the economic block. They had no leverage.
  NATOXIT would be a much bigger deal, because the US is the premier global military power and the single largest exporter of weapons and associated tech.
  Also, the NATO thing is pure bluster in order to assert leverage over the bloc, while Brexit was a dog-catching-the-car scenario. The Tories invented so many fictions about how awful EU membership was that they couldn't accept what generous concessions were offered. Meanwhile, Trump will happily take a big personal kickback for a small concession on arms sales.
- Backfiring to Boris looks a lot different than backfiring to Trump. Boris Johnson, even though he's a piece of shit, still cares about England. Trump only cares about himself and would let Putin waltz right into the War Room if he wanted to.
- I’m not in favor of leaving NATO immediately, but to say that Europe would have much leverage is disingenuous. The US enjoys many strategic advantages over Europe besides NATO membership they have:
  Large wealthy consumer base with healthy demographics, worlds most advanced military, fastest growing net exporter of energy, worlds largest blue ocean navy that has kept sea lanes open for trade, etc. etc.
  Europe is incapable of projecting power beyond EU boarders without US logistical support. They lack the necessary logistical support to do it at scale. They also can’t perform SEAD operations and don’t have the satellite and intelligence gathering assets that the US has.
  In short they can take action against the US at their own peril.
  
  Don't know what consumer base you're referring to, but other than the wealthy keeping the economy afloat by maintaining their expenditures on creature comforts, most people in America are broke as fuck.
  
  It's not about Europe. It's about the massive fuckton of TS//SCI shit shared directly with FIVE EYES and NATO, which shows the exact locations of US strategic nuclear weapons, strategic weapons protocols, intelligence gathering techniques and sources, etc that can almost immediately be sent directly to Russia and China as soon as the US walks out the door. It's about the first line of defense missile detection radars, the cryptologic keys, Global Campaign Plans, Contingency Plans, PBNZ coordinates, non-overflight coordinates, FLAGWORDS, etc.
  And that's not all - you also lost all international trade, everywhere, forever. Bye-bye middle eastern oil and Chinese manufactured goods, because all your oh-so-friendly shipping lanes and freedom of the seas is now contested waters full of could-be-privateers. If the EU, by pure necessity, pivots Eastward into a pan-Eurasian bloc, that's game for the US.
  
  So, you cool if Canada nopes out of NORAD too then? Gonna use smoke signals for your DEW?

We know. Get out and vote!!!
- But remember, vote for Biden and not for Trump. If you play nice and behave, a group of unknown people that you didn't vote for might actually vote for Biden so he can stay president for another 4 years. If you voted for Trump, I guess that group of electoral college people might care enough to still vote for Biden? But who cares anyway. Neither Biden nor Trump actually do anything. They just tell the rest of us to do as they say....I'm being sarcastic, vote Biden! Please! Electoral college dudes.... because we know you're all dudes ... Please could you just vote for Biden this time?
  
  .... perhaps it was a mistake to legalize weed after all.
  
  One issue at a time. First, face the existential problem, then address the systemic problem.
  
  i voted for him in 2008. that was enough for me.

It requires approval of the US congress.
- Don't look now but they give him pretty much everything he wants.
  
  They need to get past the Senate filibuster.
  But the real problem is a Commander in Chief who doesn't want to fulfill treaty obligations. Congress doesn't have a mechanism to force that, just impeachment which we've seen fail already. So while we can't officially leave, we aren't going to be participating under him either.
- Implying checks and balances will apply to "only 1 day" dictator Don.
- So what happens if he just says not to go help NATO if article 5 is invoked (if that's the one where a member is attacked)? Doing nothing seems more up his alley anyways, pulling out requires more work so he'll probably just say no if it's needed.
  I got no idea if the US armed forces can deploy without the president's approval in some way or if Trump says no go then it's completely off. Been wondering as a NATO neighbor who's country he called a security threat his first term.
- Sure, with Kaine's and Rubio's bill from December, it now requires Senate approval. But all Trump really needs to do is to say that the US won't help its allies, which is what he's doing. And since NATO is based on deterrence, he's effective undermining trust in NATO as an alliance. The winners are Russia and China.

You know who also wasn't in NATO? Ukraine.
- Bruh, if Trump wins and we pull out of Nato, Russia won't even have to invade us. Trump will give Putin a fist bump and a welcome basket when he arrives off the plane.
  
  That's when the Civil War would break out. Literal gun fights in the streets if Putin stepped foot into the US.

For those that want to break everything, this is a feature, not a bug. The magats would rather send the world into the toilet rather than not be able to "own the libs" (and women, and POC, and LGBTQ and immigrants, and anyone with one iota more education than them, etc.).
- The magats would rather send the world into the toilet rather than ~~not be able to "own the libs"~~ let their opponents have any success or peace
  With the text adjustments above, it's clearly something they've learned from their Russian mentors.

So usa are going to leave there military bases on our land right ?
- Well last time trump did a withdrawal of troops they left everything for the taliban, so it stands to reason it would happen again.
  
  The elites don't want you to know this but the fighter jets at overseas military bases are free you can take them home. I have 12 F-35s

Sick delectable piece of trash.
- detestable?
  
  You heard the man. Don't kink shame

any Party may cease to be a Party [of NATO] one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation
“America? It’s America, we quit”
Euro confusion intensifies
- — Hello America, we need to talk.
  — Sure America, what's going on?
  — Not on the phone, this is very important.
  — Where do you want to meet?
  — Somewhere public.

In order to do that Trump would need a MAGA-Republican majority in the US Senate as well, due to a recently bi-partisan enacted law by Congress stating as much - https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/

Trump will do whatever is in his power to do, legal or not. As long as Putin tells him he is in the tough guy maffia club, ensuring him that he is invincible.

This shouldn't really be news to people, he literally attempted that once already.

Good, then NATO can charge the US with war crimes since they will no longer be an ally. Get fucked
- I would gladly watch all of our politicians get charged with war crimes. I can only dream.

I believe there is now a law that says that a President can't pull out of NATO. Only Congress can make that call.

No, Putin didn't ask him to do that. Totally just an idea he has for some reason.

I wonder if the rest of NATO would allow this. Like, okay, the US "pulls out" and stops all their commitments to NATO. It would still be in NATO's best interest, should Trump eventually leave office, that the US retain its membership. Create a paperwork "penalty box" that allows Trump to feel like he's won but allow future, more sane Presidents, an easy on-ramp back into full membership.
- Oh sweet summer child, there will never be a democratic election ever again if he wins.
- I wonder if the rest of NATO would allow this.
  I imagine he'd "pull us out of NATO" like he "pulled us out of NAFTA". Which is to say he'd slap a new "America First" label on the old organization, take a few weeks off to vacation at a bunch of European golf courses, do a big signing ceremony in front of OAN handi-cams, and yell "I Made America Great Again" into the faces of anyone who thinks this is baby-tier bullshit.
  Create a paperwork “penalty box” that allows Trump to feel like he’s won but allow future, more sane Presidents, an easy on-ramp back into full membership.
  I think the real end-game is about goosing US military exports. Trump threatens a pull out, on the condition that all the member states boost their domestic military budgets. Then those member states buy more shit from American MIC contractors. The MIC rewards Trump with political capital. And Trump takes kickbacks in the form of club memberships and no-show jobs for his extended family.
  My man loves to bluff about taking his ball and going home. And he'll happily sign a big executive order with an oversized sharpee, proclaiming "We Aren't In NATO Anymore!" whether or not we actually left, because it plays well with his base. But the real influence that the US has in NATO is more about Trump extending/denying France or the UK or Finland or whomever with navy and air support to hold business assets in former colonies.
  Trump knows that and he knows it offers him immense leverage, given how much these other countries rely on US power projection. So he'll very likely get a new wave of EU militarization at the enrichment of American MIC, because its the only way the other NATO states decouple their reliance on the US for "free" military support.
  
  That said, that can backfire. Several major member states of the EU are already talking about proper remilitarization that wasn't needed since the wall fell. There are nascent beginnings of a joint European army and a joint European MIC. Why would EU states spend more money on US stuff that it already thinks it doesn't need, if it can just use the same money and pour it into the FCAS project for example, creating jobs and keeping money at home?
  Orbán used to be a huge Trump fan, and he actually went and started spending more money on the military when the was Trump's thing. Only it wasn't American F-35s he got, it was a bunch of German Leopard 2A8 tanks and French Eurocopter EC725 helicopters and Norwegian NASAMS launchers. There is also a stated intent to skip 5th gen and get into the FCAS if and when that materializes.

Thanks for welcoming me to your town Mayor Winky.

Is John Bolton a good guy now?
- Literally zero people said that.

From what I understand, Trump alone could not make the US leave NATO. And despite how despicable some Republicans are, I think he’s made enough enemies within his own party to never see that actually happen.

Perhaps the Americans leaving NATO turns out to be the thing that prevents WW3. We will only know this if WW3 starts in a similar manner to WW1 with all the alliances.
- Thinking the U.S. leaving NATO might stop World War III is kind of missing the point. Back in World War I, yeah, complex alliances dragged everyone into a mess. But NATO? It's a whole different beast. It's all about keeping peace by making it clear that messing with one member is like picking a fight with the whole gang. It's more of a big, collective "back off" sign to anyone thinking of starting trouble.The U.S. being part of NATO actually helps keep things calm. It's like having a really strong friend in the neighborhood who helps make sure nobody starts any fights. So, saying the U.S. leaving NATO could prevent a global war is kinda backwards. NATO's there to prevent wars, not start them.
  
  Military alliances factored into the world war because there were two of them of similar strength and size. There is no military alliance that is of similar strength to NATO that would be reasonably able to pick a fight with it. About CSTO or a potential Russia-China alliance, if they mattered and worked, there'd be Chinese or Kyrgyz or whatever troops in Ukraine.
  If NATO is severely weakened or dissolved, that levels the playing field a bit more. Especially since not all NATO members are nuclear powers. Combining that with the batshit warmongering leadership of some countries, that would cause an escalation in the war in Europe.
  
  NATO is exactly the same beast, to those not in it. All those pre WW1 alliances were M.A.D. prototypes, same as NATO.

That would be a good thing.
- Yeah, for Putin and China.
- do you care to elaborate
  
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio
  As a non-american, I am baffled by the american "left" support for a militaristic organisation that empowered far-right network in western europe's intelligence service for the sake of anticommunism. Those people killed socialists politicians here.
  
  Of course the whole "encourage Putin to attack other European nations" thing is stupid in typical Trump fashon, but less american imperialism is always welcome.

NATO needs to be dissolved.
- Why
  
  It's an old red scare relic that serves no purpose other than to make rich men richer

No he won't.
He made this exact same campaign promise back in 2016 and he didn't pull the US out of NATO when he became president.
The only thing he did was to call out the majority of member countries that weren't paying their agreed about share, causing (primarily) the US to make up the difference.
- I consider this campaign fundamentally different than his first.
  First and foremost - he is a grifter and conman at the end of a con with enemies on all sides. This is a desperate man. If elected his goal is to first wipe his slate clean via a pardon - and then will be to retain power thereafter.
  To achieve these goals he will do anything. What makes this terrifying is he genuinely believes himself to be the smartest person in the room. He is a shortsighted idiot that is playing chess with blinders on while the rest of the world is playing 4d chess.
  Other nations fears of another term with that man are not unfounded.

There is no such thing as the "North Atlantic" it is a nonsensical organization, there is no logical reason for the US and Canada to be in a millitary alliance based on the made up polity of the "North Atlantic", not saying that European countries shouldn't care about regional defense, but that has nothing to do with the US or Canada. Nato is just an excuse for the US to park it's nukes and bases in Europe and extend it's millitary power, no one needs nukes, and people especially don't need foreign nukes in their country.
edit: also Trump would never pull out of NATO, the farthest he would ever go is threaten and then coerce European countries pay more of a share of the budget and say he made a "better deal", but he's quite obviously bluffing
- You do know that the UK and France have their own nuclear stockpiles, right?
  
  They are not nearly as large or as capable as what the US has though
- ROFL!

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