Is gold investing a scam?
I know people out there who have invested a lot in gold under the belief that in the event of like complete societal collapse or hyperinflation, they could use it for purchasing.
I have the hunch it's a scam, but I haven't learned enough monetary theory, business, or economics to understand why.
When the world collapses, nobody's going to care about gold.
Stock up on bottlecaps instead.
As a person who has an abnormal number of bottlecaps for hobby reasons, thank you for making me feel rich! Also, why would anyone else want these?
I think they're referencing the game Fallout where bottlecaps are used as currency
It's almost certainly a joke but bottlecaps in a post civilization society would make a pretty decent currency, more so than gold.
They're light, easy to carry, hard to reproduce and therefore scarce. They're also useless for anything else. So if you happened to have a lot of caps laying around they might find their way to becoming a currency.
Gold is heavy, requires a lot of work to make it useful as a standard, and has other practical uses. Caps are actually better.
Because patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.
Well, for one thing, the supply of googly eyes will run out and you will have to adapt.
You're forgetting the crows that like shiny things
Make a bunch of shiny trinkets, train a gigantic murder of crows to steal food & supplies and attack on command, profit.
Complete societal collapse, hard to say what, beyond the basics, would be useful as a medium of barter.
But, in a society facing major issues, e.g., hyper inflation, or say, a US government default, yeah, gold is a pretty decent hedge bet.
The traditional safe haven has been government debt but that's been seen as an increasingly risky bet where you could lose a lot of money to inflation or worse, government default/intervention.
So, while not ideal, gold at least seems a better bet than most other "safe" places to put one's money.
Yeah, it really depends on the nature of the societal collapse.
I can imagine situations in which being able to press a gold necklace into the right palm might get you out of a tricky situation.
On the other hand it's hard to imagine a situation where a horde of gold bullion in your safe at home would be very helpful.
I remember reading an article interviewing a man who lived through the early aughts Argentine Great Depression and he said the best horde of value was cheap diamond rings. You could trade one for a handgun, a couple of bags of groceries, even a motorcycle. He said they were even better than krugerrands. Something about how people trusted someone whose trading a family ring more then some profiteer.
If you don't hold it, you don't own it.
Investing in gold someone else holds is silly. Having a few ounces stashed away is just illiquid asset that should be a hedge against inflation.
You can have liquid, premium-free gold by buying an ETF/ETC. Whether you hold it or not is irrelevant in case of hyperinflation. Stashing it away may be useful only if you like to touch it I guess
The only gold worth a damn is the stuff in your hands. Gold speculation is not a hedge against financial crises
Let's be honest though, in a complete societal collapse (not likely to ever happen) if I had sandwiches, and you had a block of gold. Your good is worthless unless someone else is willing to trade for it. You come with gold, say it's worth something, I say meh, maybe 15 pounds for one sandwich, you say no way, you grow weak through starvation I say 20 pounds, you say no way, grow weaker and I say 30 pounds, you say I only had 15, you die of starvation and I bury your currently worthless gold somewhere in case it eventually has value again.
Something something you can eat money something.
You're probably not the only one out there. Maybe someone else would see it differently and pound your head in for less. That frees up the sandwich and anything else in your possession.
If there is complete societal collapse, then gold is going to be worth nothing, because you cant eat it. Bullets on the other hand you can use to take peoples food, or hunt for your own. So invest in bullets!
Now if you just expect financial collapse but not total societal then sure gold, silver, bonds are probably fine if you want "safe" stable ways to hold your investments.
In most cases, its just fear-mongering and gold has no more actual value than paper currency since they both derive their value from sentiment or perceived value. So if you show up at my house and offer me a small gold bar, you value at $10,000, and I value it at a potato, then your $10,000 is actually only worth a potato.
In fairness, if the US dollar collapses, say, but the euro is fine and you find a way to get to Europe, you're much better off with a few chunks of gold that will be worth relatively what you bought them for than with wheelbarrows full of hundred dollar bills which are now worth less than paper.
Yeah, gold isn't worth anything unless a community agrees to assign a value to it, which probably won't happen in an apocalyptic scenario. If you really want to be prepared, you need to stock up on things that are actually useful:
If it gets so bad that you need tools for building shelter, you are absolutely fucked unless you already have farmland and can defend it. People are massively ignorant about how difficult it is to live off the land if you don't have experience in it and a lot of supplies and knowledge accumulated. It takes acres of crops and animals to support a couple people. It takes months or even years to make that land productive enough to keep you barely alive. Then if you have hard winters you better hope you have a stockpile.
Financial collapse is one thing, but a total societal/technological collapse would be bad in orders of magnitude that I don't even know how to describe it.
Source: work in logistics.
People buy gold cos it just keeps going up. But here is the truth. Gold doesn't go up, the dollar goes down.
So gold is inflation-proof?
Pretty much. Gold is a time-tested store of value. But it is not a solid investment. (stores of value and investments are not the same thing)
So gold is inflation-proof?
Yes, but only to the extent that you can store it, defend it and find a buyer when needed.
Gold loses value at exactly the rate of the cost of the armed guards you are paying to keep it from being stolen.
Pay too little, and it takes its value to someone else who is better armed or sneakier.
And if someone set aside gold for you that you have never seen, no they didn't.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
In August 1976, gold was $35/oz, close to its historical level. By October 1979, it was $380/oz, over 10× increase — peaking (for the 20th c.) in January 1980 at $668/oz.
20× return in 3.5 years.
Gold doubled again in value by December 2010, and again by January 2025 — to $2800/oz.
The all-time high, 20 October 2025, $4377.58/oz.
125× return in under 40 years.
I've seen it said: it's not that gold has gotten more expensive. Its that the USD is debased as a currency against the dollar. The gold standard for USD ended in August 1971.
No its not, because going up in value means its inflating because the base currency you are pegging its value to is also inflating.
If you invest in gold that is not physically in your posession, then yes.
If society breaks down, who is going to honor that piece of paper that claims you own gold in some banks vault? You don't even know where that gold actually is...
I am not sure how useful owning the actual precious metals would be in a societal collapse. It's going to lose value quickly. It would take probably 5-10 years before some rich rober baron decides to make a market for it where it gets a decent trade value again. An Oz of gold is going to mean a lot less to me than box of bullets or some chickens, unless I can find someone to give me a ton of that stuff in trade before my family starves I am going to take the chickens.
Much more useful in a hyper inflation scenario.
Short answer: Yes.
Long answer: Yes. Tune all of that nonsense out… But don’t fret if you own a tiny bit, either.
I kind of like Warren Buffet’s ramblings on it:
Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.
You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take?
I feel like you could still do very well in life if you controlled literally all the gold in the world, but also he is Warren Buffet and my current wallet is one that I found on the ground, so I am willing to defer to the experts here.
(NB, the wallet was empty, I'm no savage)
Almost always yes, it is a scam. Theoretically, it’s a hedge against inflation, but in practice, it’s just grifters selling it to paranoid right wingers
Glenn Beck added $1000 to the price of gold in the last decade.
It is an ok hedge on inflation, but it is pushed a lot by scam adjacent businesses to push up consumption.
I'm acquiring a little gold. Not a lot, but enough.
What's enough? When my family was escaping persecution, they managed to travel under the cover of night and stayed in people's barns and homes during the day. They planned and managed these arrangements via transactions using gold coins, links or pieces of jewelry, or other relatively universal valuables. They also got away a couple of times using the same goods to bribe authorities.
A small number of generations of my family dealt with being told that their money or credit was devalued due to their religion, profession, or relationship to public figures. In those instances, the family members who fled survived, and most of the ones who didn't flee died.
I don't know that I have much faith in my ability to flee anything, so I'm not investing that much time or money into acquiring gold things. Found some old watches from my grandparents/great-grandparents that claim to have gold in them. Have a couple of my own little things and jewelry I've given my wife. All just things when the time to survive arrives. Which it might not ever.
I hope this somewhat answered your question.
If it's not too personal, I'm curious where your family escaped from?
Different parts of the family tree, but pre-Soviet Ukraine and Poland.
The Ukrainian family was erased over a period spanning from pre-WWI to pre-WWII. Around the time of the Bolshevik Revolution, a large portion was killed for having too close of ties with the Romanov family, and for taking advantage of the commoners. They incorrectly assumed that their social status would keep them safe. By the time that bolshevism fell out of style, anyone who remained was killed off for their radical support for empowering the commoners. Over just a couple of decades, a relatively vast family name was completely wiped out from a vast number of cities and villages. The only thing they all seemed to have in common with each other and those miles alongside them was their religion.
The Polish family either snuck out of Poland around the time that Nazism was becoming more popular, or died. One family member survived after their parents left them with some Catholic friends, and another two family members shockingly survived the concentration camps. My memories of one of them was how hard they'd cry when they'd see any portion of their numeric tattoo.
Now the living parts of the Ukrainian family live throughout the Americas, and believe that fascist leaders have redeeming qualities. Meanwhile, the Polish family is mostly in Israel and is mostly super-cool with Palestinian genocide. Imagine struggling so hard to survive, just for your offspring to perpetuate or promote the same shit that you escaped from.
In the event of a collapse like you describe, I'm going to need something I can eat or wear, something tangible I can trade. If you can get enough people together that agree gold is a valuable bearer instrument then you've got a government. That's not really a collapse.
Owning land is better to store wealth, but gold is better when fleeing to wherever land ownership is still enforced.
The thing about the value of gold in a society is that it is only valued within the society. If society collapses, there will be no group or entity that could value it. You'd need to wait until people start rebuilding. But then you'd need to be in a position to shape how currency is decided on and minted. Unless you've kept your load of gold secret, it'll be hard to convince people to adopt gold as a currency without starting on more even ground.
Ever since we found gold we have valued it. I don't understand the position of, "Oh, no one will value it!" We love the shit and it's a store of value. How much value is dependent.
You can't eat gold, and you can only trade gold for food if that person can trade the gold for something else. I'm not going to say there's no chance of gold being valuable in a societal collapse scenario, but I'd rather wager with resources than a pretty, shiny metal. I don't see how that's a position that can't be understood. Gold works as an intermediary exchange, but direct barter can always be counted on.
Because it was found by people in society. It was given value within an established society. I'm not saying no one will value it. I'm saying that until there is an established society, it won't hold value. Then if you do end up in a society, you need to sway them to adopt gold as a currency while keeping your gold stores secret.
Idk man... Humans like shiney baubles. Remember: Gold was a valuable commodity before we even had legit uses for it beyond decoration.
Because it was found by people in society. It was given value within an established society. I'm not saying no one will value it. I'm saying that until there is an established society, it won't hold value. Then if you do end up in a society, you need to sway them to adopt gold as a currency while keeping your gold stores secret.
To clarify, when people colloquially refer to “the collapse of society” they don’t mean that all forms of society would cease to exist, but refer to the failure of the nation state, or possibly the international order, and the long supply chains that go with it. Etc.
So society at various scales would still exist, in overlapping ways and jurisdictions. Basic units like neighbourhoods and firefighters and towns and regions would be organizing based on the old rules and adapting. People organize well in the absence of warlords, so that and extinction events are the threats to trade.
The value of trade goods might be indeterminate if a comet wipes nearly all of us out. Otherwise, many people love to dicker and argue about the value of things, so I’m pretty confident about rare raw materials like gold having both utility value and a reasonably inflated exchange value in a prolonged regional or international crisis.
Compare gold to the other elements on the periodic table as a medium to store value and you'll see why it is used for this task.
It is non toxic, it can be easily held and transported, it is non reactive (it won't rust or combust), it is relatively rare, it is dense (a lot of gold fills a small space) and, well like others have said, it's shiny. It can be easily moulded and forgotten about for millennia and still be the same way it was last used (look at Viking hordes as an example) few other things can do this, maybe diamonds? But they can not be recombined again like gold
Would you trust this guy's advice?
I'd chop off my own dick if whatever thing is told me to do it
It's... Not really a scam so much as a thing for weird cranks who think the apocalypse is coming. If you have gold then you have gold. And gold will likely hold its value for a long time because it's a rare resource. Unless we find some alchemy that turns common materials into it, it will likely stay that way. So if you buy gold at market value then you can always sell it later at market value, and that market value is almost guaranteed to be higher than when you bought it.
The people who are really into it though are the weird cranks. And I'd imagine certain stocks or even bonds are arguably better returns in the same time span.
Not to be contrarian, but please don't say gold is almost guaranteed to go up... There have been times in the 1900's where people lost in gold massively and didn't recover for decades.
It HAS been a good investment in the last while, but it may have been just luck.
Plus, at the price it's at now... I kind of fear buying it.
I looked into it as well but in the end went with a Gov Bond ETF instead.
Edit: typos, I have feet for hands
please don’t say gold is almost guaranteed to go up…
I mean, in so far as inflation is almost guaranteed to occur in a productive economy, gold is almost guaranteed to go up over the long term.
A better question might be "Is an investment in gold going to outperform another asset class?"
I looked into it as well but in the end went with a Gov Bond ETF instead.
That's been the gambit with gold for a while. Point to a short term up-cycle in price and insist that's a long term ROI you can count on.
But when you look at the actual price history
there are long periods when the price is either flat or negative. Risk of holding gold relative to, say, the S&P or even basic Treasuries can get pretty high, unless you're very confident we're in one of those rare '04-'11 sustained price rises.
Even as a hedge against short term downturns, it kinda sucks. If you look at the big historical recessions - '81, '90, '01, '08, '20 - the price of gold had typically already jumped ('01 being a notable exception) and subsequent years were fairly flat. Spikes in gold prices aren't a bad prediction of future recessions, but they rarely make for good shelter on the eve of the crash.
The only things that will have value when society collapses are food, water, shelter, off-grid power, ammunition, and weapons.
Don't forget "skills you can use to make yourself valuable to a small community", especially the skills to grow and prepare food, locate and purify water, construct and maintain shelter, maintain and upscale off-grid power, and use ammunition and weapons.
It will be whatever the remnants of society deem valuable and convenient to use for condensed wealth. Probably bottle caps.
Unrelated, anyone else looking forward to fallout season 2?
Gold is not going to save you. I'd we get to the point that gold becomes currency again, that will be the least of your worries. Those are just prepper fantasies.
If you are considering investing in gold as an asset, sure that's legit.
Gold is only as valuable as people deem it to be. It's a solid investment because it doesn't suffer from things like inflation or short sellers. Gold is like a treasury bill in that you're not going to make a bunch of money short term, but you can be relatively sure you won't lose you investment long term. I heard something about a decade ago which still holds true: as long ago as the Roman empire, an ounce of gold was worth enough money to get you a top quality outfit including top quality sandals (shoes) and still leave enough for you to get a top quality meal. Will you get those things with gold in an apocalyptic situation? Nah, but assuming human civilization continues to survive, you can expect the value of gold relative to products and services to stay strong while currencies lose value.
You can short gold ETFs. Gold is highly speculative and has crashed taking decades to recover (~1980-2005). It's basically boomer-bitcoin.
If they ever get around to capturing an asteroid to mine, your hoarded gold will suddenly be worthless.
In case of complete societal collapse ? Yes.
But if you have to flee from your homeland, gold is a universal currency.
Yeah but so is having any currency
Invest in land: they aren't making any more of it.
The Dutch: hold my beer
Hawaii's Big Island be like:
24-hour lava flow asmr
But in a societal collapse owning land doesn't matter, because land ownership is much more dependent on contracts, which don't mean jack shit without a society and a government, and if you have to flee because of a war or a natural disaster, you can't just stuff your forest/house/farmland/whatever in a suitcase and sell it later.
Lots of things can be used as currency. Gold was the OG because it is scarce, takes work to mine, is finite(ish), it doesn't tarnish or corrode in air or salt water, isn't attacked by acids except agua regia, meaning it doesn't degade over time. It's a really good medium for labor-value.
Problem is, it's also a useful metal now, in semiconductors and electronics, so now it is being 'consumed' by industry in a way that isn't readily recoverable except at product end of life, and even then it's not 100% recycled, probably more like 10%.
So the global supply increases due to work mining, decreases due to consumption as a commodity, and is still treated as a currency equivalent.
Solid gold is easy to store, and will survive calamities, bank collapses, fires, floods, ect where other intrinsic value items don't.
So it's a good investment if you believe that you will survive the deletion of society, AND you believe that it will be tradeable post-collapse. Or if you just treat it like a commodity.
But post-collapse, gold isn't intrinsically useful. In these events, other useful, consumable goods might be better for goods and labour exchange. In the early Australian colonies, there was no money, people bought, sold and got paid in rum.
Rum is a reasonable value holder, it can be preserved against degrading, it is 'fungible' and divisible in a way that gold coins arent.
Dried grains are a good currency too. Maize, wheat berries, etc, as long as you accept that your value will be contually consumed and replenished.
Whether a thing has value is largely determined by whether the society you end up in decides it has value.
The indigenous Australians would happily trade a gold nugget for rum or rope or steel tools, because their society had no use for gold, but did have use for steel.
Disclaimer: The only gold I own is in my phone and computer.
It's a commodity that's widely used as a way to keep the value of a portfolio in case of inflation. Gold has a lot of utility but recently because of uncertainty about the US dollar central banks have been stocking up on gold.
Complete societal collapse is very unlikely and we have studied economics enough to the point where hyperinflation is avoidable.
For investors keeping some gold (10-20% of portfolio) can be very nice since it allows you to buy the dip and is inflation proof. On the other hand, gold can become a speculative asset so it's value can be inflated just like any other commodity. So in a way currently it's either a nice tool or a bubble (or scam as you call it).
Silver, used in solar panels, is also pretty good for same reasons.
Look at the zoomed out 5 year chart for its price and you tell me.
$1,839 -> $4,217
Yes, but:
https://www.macrotrends.net/4534/cpi-purchasing-power-of-the-dollar
Gold is just another asset, it belongs in any long term portfolio at least to a small degree, and if you take the possibility of market instability seriously, you might consider keeping some actual metal on hand. Though silver is somewhat more practical for that.
So much FUD and complete misinformation here. Gold, first and foremost, is a store of value and a hedge against inflation. It's a terrible investment. That said, if you bought 10k worth of gold 5 years ago, you would now have 20k. Which is obviously a higher return than most savings products or some actual investments.
It's a hell of a lot safer than BTC and if society does collapse, it will absolutely retain its value.
if society does collapse, it will absolutely retain its value
Why? It's not inherently valuable beyond a handful of industrial/electronic uses. If society collapses, people are going to be trading in food, water and medicine, not worthless shiny metal.
Even at the basest level of society that we might fall back to, there will be a need for stores of great value in order to make larger trades. You can't effectively trade large scale without it. Which might not be relevant right after a full system failure, but definitely afterwards.
Why? It’s not inherently valuable beyond a handful of industrial/electronic uses.
It has the precedent of societal agreement going back thousands of years longer than literally anything else besides food and prostitution. If the world started over from the stone-age, people would be using precious metals to represent value all over again. You don't need it to make sense, you just need a social agreement, and that doesn't happen with just anything that can fall apart or decay or be found easily.
If society collapses, then carrying around and securing gold is not safe at all.
It isn't even safe today, but people still do it.
I assume you’re talking about physical gold.
Yes, it’s generally a scam. Some middle man is going to take a cut of what it’s worth before you enter the market - and they’re almost always going to misrepresent it’s value, especially if it’s not in the form of a stamped bar. Then you basically have to store it and shlep it and secure it and keep it secret, which will further diminish profit. Then you have to sell it, presumably as part of your retirement plan…or leave it to somebody who’s going to lose even more of its value when they want to unload it inefficiently.
If you’re not wealthy in the first place it’s only worth investing in as a hobby…because you have to factor in the value of your time and subtract that from its value, as well.
As far as it being a hedge against the collapse of currency? Bad idea. Skills and land you can defend are going to be the only hedges against that. Even if it had value post collapse…it would just put a target on your head.
The amount of time it would take for a post collapse society to regain enough stability to return to metal being needed for a currency is likely longer then you would be alive to actually benefit from the investment.
Short term only direct barter and labor will be worth anything. You only need a currency when you have a non volatile society.
It's why the whole post apocalyptic gold value nonsense is nonsense. You NEED an economy to make currency have value. A post collapse society has no economy.
Yeap.
Like…depending on the nature of the collapse you might have a bunch of delusional former MAGA people in a region who all have a bunch of gold so they trade it with each other…but for the most part nobody would want it.
Depends on your threat model. During speculative bubbles capital flows towards gainers no matter how crazy (NFTs anyone?). During corrections capital flows back towards commodities, and gold is .. er...the gold standard. It has a lot of industrial uses blah blah blah. Copper is also good for these purposes and is an interesting contrast.
Nobody says "if you can't touch it, you don't own it" for copper or oil or pork bellies. That's because that advice isn't about using gold as an inflation hedge or safe harbour in a bear market. That advice is predicated on compete monetary collapse and the use of gold as currency. If you don't live in a space where you can grow some of your own food, and have access to potable water from your own well I wouldn't worry to much about it. You will starve to death or die in the food riots so gold won't help anyways.
I think the "don't hold it don't own it" advice does make sense for a small amount of portable gold if you're considering a scenario like a fascist government taking over and needing to flee the country with any wealth you can, predicated on the assumption that other countries are still relatively stable.
There are also a lot of silly people who hoard pounds of gold for apocalyptic currency which you've pegged.
Depends on what you want to achieve.
It's a hedge against inflation. So in times of high inflation and economic uncertainty it will do well.
Keeping a small amount in a safe in case the world goes to shit, well only after you have a pile of guns, ammunution and canned food.
It's not a productive asset. If you buy stocks you'll probably be better off in the long run.
That being said your investment portfolio should not be only one kind of investment and gold should probably be a part of it eventually.
Societal collapse? No gold won't save you. Tools and how to use them will.
Maybe during hyperinflation though.
Gods not a terrible investment but it doesn't have a short term ROI just a REALLY long term one.
I hate Bitcoin but its probably a better investment (and just as useful) than gold.
I'm a fudd though and ONLY buy stable stocks that yield reliable dividends though. ETFs, S&P stuff.
I feel like silver is a more practical apocalypse metal than gold because of its anti bacterial properties. Even if you can't turn it into surgical tools you can use it to help preserve drinking water.
There are a lot of delusional people in here posting about their personal shower-fantasies of what they would do in the apocalypse. You can safely discard all that. If it gets so bad you need guns and tools and... blacksmithing supplies? you are so utterly fucked that gold and bartering will be the last of your concerns. People will be fucking eating each other. You simply cannot run to the woods and start living off the land, you will starve and die without acres of ready land already producing food. Real-life isn't like a survival video game, there is no tech-tree that you can climb and start producing food.
Read some Cormac McCarthy for a more realistic view of the end of the world. (Then have a therapist on hand for the after-effects.)
For a financial collapse, gold would probably retain value, a society still needs something to base the value of its trading on, we can't just all carry around sacks of grain. How much value gold will retain is very hard to predict, but people have been using it for so long that it's already survived several widespread disasters and is still in use.
I remember reading Walden and thinking that even many many years ago this dude failed to be entirely self sufficient and still had to head back to town for random shit. It'd be so much harder nowadays.
Yes and no. If you order your "gold kit" off of an ad aimed at boomers worried about losing their houses, it is probably scammy.
If you're very rich and worried, you could stash away a bit of bullion at your home. You'll have other things of value you could trade on the black market of total societal collapse before you'd need to tap into that resource. If you're not very rich, a gold bar is not going to do you much good because it's a big chunk of change tied up in one item. You're more likely to need smaller denominations, like coins or rings, to pay for stuff in the apocalypse. Or you need to learn to smelt metal. The scam of it all is that people with a financial interest will advertize gold as the safe resource in times of high perceived crisis when the price of gold is already high or rising. It makes much more sense financially to watch the market and buy when it's down.
Gold is also something that needs the economy to come back before you ran out of other stuff to barter with. If our apocalyptical total collapse lasts a long time, gold will not be as valuable as drinking water, food, or shelter. Smokes (incl. vape juice) and booze might be more useful for a longer time.
I'm not rich and I'd sooner go down the prepper route than buying gold.
Some (many? most? IDK) gold sellers are scammers. They will sell you overvalued stuff and insist it's extra-valuable because of some feature they made up. They are the ones being loud on the web and making you hear about it all the time. So, if you hear an ad, and buy gold, you've probably fallen for a scam.
But investing in gold by itself is just like any other commodity. And just to say, the rule on that last phrase is valid for almost everything (it's absolutely valid for stocks and investment funds).
When was the last complete societal collapse?
Gold is a good hedge against inflation. When was the last hyperinflation in your country?
Obligatory not an economist, only know some basics about investing (and quite lazy about it)
I always thought that gold is just a rather unique commodity that people can also have the option of holding physically (not that it's advised to do so). Professional investors invest in just about anything as long as there is a potential return on investment, like typical stocks and bonds, gold and silver, housing/land, art, literal truckloads of food... frankly gold isn't even remotely the weirdest or "scammiest" on this list
As for more regular people, I do have a suspicion a lot of con-artists and/or people with suspicious intents heavily promote gold investing though. Also some libertarian types have a weird... fantasy? of total societal collapse with them rising to the top post-collapse, which I do not quite understand. But I'd presume gold would be attractive to those types since gold has been used as a means of transaction for a long time in human history
Bad news for the Libertarians: silver was historically way more common for money than gold was, to the point that languages like Irish and French use the same word for money as for silver.
This is because there was (and is) way less gold than silver, so gold is way more valuable. As such, gold coins were only used to buy things like houses, horses, and suits of armour. Silver coins were much more practical; the linked article mentions that Ptolemaic Egypt had to export large quantities of grain to bring in enough silver to pay their army despite there being gold in Egypt.
But more than that, if there is a complete societal collapse, the metal you'll want is iron. Societal collapse doesn't mean things continue as they have been except there are no safety or food quality laws. It means everybody goes back to peasant agriculture using tools made of wood and iron (well, steel, which is iron with extra stuff in it). If money is used, it might well be something where no coins actually change hands; everybody just remembers how much they owe their neighbours, and how much their neighbours owe them. That, if course, assumes that in the event of complete societal collapse, we don't decide to give local communism a try.
It isn't a scam. It is an asset like buying land in the middle of nowhere. It will in general match inflation but underperform most other investments. In the very long term I would expect that with global population stabilizing and declining, the value of gold will also stabilize and decline.
All investing is potentially a scam. That's why they warn you about securities trading.
There was a video essay by Folding Ideas (From "the line goes up" fame) about a weird documentary narrated/hosted by Idris Elba, and If I am remembering it right it was basically a propaganda/ad film targeting people like peepers and that are skeptical of the government and such. So I believe there is at least a push to make gold more marketable and in fashion, like De beers did for diamonds.
I don't know if I am allowed to link to outside content (because the rule of no reposting outside content) but in any case it should be easy to find for anyone interested.
Linking to outside content is good. How else could people cite their sources?
Gold is a solid store of value. That's about it. It isn't a terribly good investment as it just doesn't gain value very fast compared to inflation. But, as I said, it is a solid store of value, so if that is what you are looking for, it isn't a bad option.
If you want to invest, you are better off with index funds held over the long term.
invested a lot in gold under the belief that in the event of like complete societal collapse
If that happens, a better investment is to make yourself as self-sufficient as possible. Have a way to generate power (solar + batteries), acquire water (well water), sewage (leech field), stored food (just extra cans of food you normally eat), acquire food (a rifle and somewhere deer exist), security (that same rifle).
None of that is unreasonably expensive or hard to get. But all of those are what you would want if you are worried about societal collapse.
I’ve seen the assertion that silver is a safer bet than gold. Less glitzy, but still precious and with more industrial uses.
Of course, if civilisation collapses completely, neither will matter unless someone will trade you something for your krugerrands.
Worth less so harder to carry large amounts of capital.
If you look back at the 2k8 crash gold plummeted almost as fast. People sold it off to cover other positions.
so you're saying buy the dip sell the tip?
it's selling time soon.
This is just me, and I'm no expert. But I kind of think that, if you're legitimately worried about your country's currency collapsing, you might want to consider leaving your country. Any sort of collapse that leads to hyperinflation or the large-scale elimination of financial infrastructure is probably going to be difficult if not impossible for the average person to survive, gold or no.
That said, precious metals are a niche enough market that I can't imagine it not being rife with predatory sellers; companies that aren't offering scams per se—you'll probably pay them and receive what you pay for—but companies which are counting on people not knowing anything about the market and accepting a terrible price or poor quality goods.
Again, not an expert. But my end-of-the-world investment would be in shelf-stable food, easily-stored seeds (for planting), medicine, hand tools, high-quality camping gear, books, that sort of thing. If there is a collapse, those sorts of things will be immediately useful and also tradeable.
Anyone who buys gold online should have a tester, and there are reputable bullion companies like JM who don't charge a lot of markup. If you're on ebay trying to buy gold bullion there's a chance it's probably fake / silver wrapped with gold and stamped. There's videos on the internet of folks cutting those bars in half and seeing what's inside.
A way to increase your chances of buying real product is to buy coins that are in bad enough shape where there's no numismatic value left. Whereas every country that mints coins has strict laws against counterfeiting them and you can go to prison for doing it, making "novelty" gold bars and rounds is perfectly legal and there's almost no risk if you get caught scamming people with them (most often just a platform ban).
At the moment unless you have some really rare stuff the numismatic value is generally less than the gold itself, I know for sure at least with standard "Napoleon" coins that is the case.
Every country is worried about their currency collapsing because all economies are deeply connected. It just takes one major trading partner to collapse for a domino effect to ripple through the world.
Definitely a fair point. But for the most part, being in the country that collapses is going to be worse than being in a different country.
Absolutely. Invest in silver instead. It's prettier.
If that's the sole qualifier, I'm investing solely in bismuth
In a societal collapse your best investment is between your ears. If you can build/grow/... things you don't need to worry about losing value.
If you're looking for something to buy now that will have value in say 1000 years, gold's a pretty good choice.
NFCs, bitcoins, silver, gold, whatever. If the only way people can cash out is to get someone to buy what they're selling, there's always going to be an element of grift to it. It's just some are more grifty than others.
I mean that applies to literally everything
Everything that you make an investment in has some measure of liquidity.
Shit, I gotta stop paying with NFC.
Fungible, portable, valuable. Gold isn't a scam, as far as the concept of wealth and hierarchy isn't a scam.
Fungible, portable, valuable.
It isn't fungible. Anyone who has tried to trade physical gold at anything close to the market rate can tell you that. And no retailer is taking a dribbling of yellow sand as payment.
It isn't portable. You can't produce a finite denomination of it easily or transfer it electronically or even carry it in a wallet economically.
It isn't intrinsically valuable. It produces nothing consumable in the way an oil well or corn field or machine shop can. It's a speculative asset with the potential to be turned into something more useful. But it has no practical use or purpose in a raw state.
Gold isn’t a scam, as far as the concept of wealth and hierarchy isn’t a scam.
The means by which commodified gold is packaged and sold to gullible investors is very often scammy. And the sales pitch promising future returns on investment are inevitably larded up with rosy predictions unsupported by current data.
The socialized mythology around gold (especially relative to peer commodities like copper or oil) radically inflates its sales price in bubble economies. But there's no reason you're going to see better investment performance than a purchase of real estate or commercial equity. And there's certainly no reason you would want to buy and hold gold long term if you had an opportunity to build or invest in an actual value-accruing business.
At best, a long gold play is a hedge against deflation and economic decline. At worst, its a fad that cycles in popularity relative to cryptocurrency or beanie babies.
Generally speaking, precious metal commodities are a hedge investment; they aren't a primary investment themselves, but they're a hedge against a loss in value of other investments, like stocks or bonds. If you are investing in gold as a hedge against inflation wiping out stock market gains, then yeah, it's pretty solid. You probably don't want to hold on to it forever though; if you'd bought gold just prior to Carter taking office and the stagflation of the late 70s, you be pretty much break-even with things like index funds.
As far as total societal collapse, you would need to have the physical bullion, not just have precious metals in your investment portfolio. And even then, gold might not have a ton of value in a subsistence society. People might trade for it, but if I had food to trade, I don't think I'd be trading for gold, since I can't eat gold. The people that will clean up in a subsistence environment? The Amish.
The thing about gold is they are always mining more of it, not great for long term value
There isnt much actually left and it becomes more and more expensive to mine.
Not that I agree with the specific numbers in this infographic (I have seen estimates between 20-40% remaining) but it illustrates my point. The right cube would be bigger, but not as big as the already mined cube on the left if you included all the gold estimates in total.