Is the US currently in a recession or entering one?
I've read a good amount about this, and while by traditional measures there isn't technically a recession, many real‑world signs make it feel like one. What do we think? I don't think this breaks the 6 rule, it's an economic question.
If AI wasn't propping up the numbers, we'd be officially in a recession
Remember. AI doesn’t create value, it steals it from others.
In the stock market it does both!
Makes you wonder whether the calculations serve anyone other than the top 0.1%.
Their portfolios bring up the average for the US because some swinging dicks decided that a (temporarily) decisive strategic advantage in faster calculators makes the graph look "good."
Meanwhile, people are hungry, getting furloughed, evicted, bombed, arrested, bound, gagged, and shot in America. Democratic institutions, the fundamental raison d'être for the American experiment, are undermined, bulldozed, disregarded, or blown up.
That's fine, they say. That's who and what they VOTED for. That's the mandate, they say.
Horseshit, I say.
Surely the definition of 'recession' would just be changed again. Easier to move goal posts than to admit you lead the horse to a mirage.
Part of me wonders if it's a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one.
I've made more money this year than I ever thought I would, like double the most my parents have ever made and yet it doesn't feel like I thought it would.
The question "are we in a recession??" always makes me think of the SNL at-home headache test commercial:
The fuck do you do that generates money?
Part of me wonders if it’s a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one
What's the difference?
there isn't technically a recession
And if the economy were shrinking, would the US government statisticians actually release reliable data that says so?
Like a lot of good questions... "it depends".
Good read here!
https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/
Some states, yes. Some, no.
Some states will get pushed to "Yes" if SNAP benefits are reduced or eliminated.
The numbers were always a little sketchy and politically filtered, but now you can't trust/use any information. The institutions are gone, political hacks are in charge and truth is dead.
Just as an FYI, there is an organisation that declares recessions in the USA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research?wprov=sfla1
I don't know if this link will work, but Moody's just released a statement that almost half of US states are in a recession. Closer Look on GPB had a Moody's economist on their podcast today:
Episode webpage: https://omny.fm/shows/closer-look-with-rose-scott/moodys-analytics-says-georgia-nearing-a-recession
Based on what I've been reading, it would be in a recession if not for the AI investment money flooding into the tech sector. Let's hope AI lives up to the hype, eh?
Wikipedia says:
In the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
So technically, looks like there isn't a recession. Though a huge chunk of US GDP is just imaginary and doesn't represent any value, so realistically probably yes.
we are in a recession and knocking on the door of a 2nd great depression
🎼Nice lyrics!
You have had an almost 20 years of recession since 2008. The global economy never recovered to the previous trend. So if you think things are getting bad and then worse, you are correct.
08 was never fully fixed, its only been delayed again. 1 of things that never recovered was jobs in many fields, i felt like alot of jobs for stem just wouldnt hire people at the low-levels anymore, they just steal peoples resume and use it to screen the rest out, probably looking for the people lucky enough to have 1-2 years of experience to exploit. plus in biotech there has been a silent push for women to be hired since they are surpassing men in biology degrees 60/40%, even in my university, the people in bio class/class labs were mostly women, and the male/female PI favored women in thier volunteer labs over men by alot.
Nope, the populace is under stupid strain, but the economy is just slow, not contracting.
Given everything that is going with AI and Trump though, it probably would be a good idea to be prepared for one hell of a recession next year.
if you remove the AI circular spending bubble, we are 100% in a recession already.
and that's if you trust the data, which arguably has been far too fucked with to be useful for years now.
Should be in freefall by next November. Good news for the midterms.. I guess.
Yes.
People around me have been saying it feels like the start of a depression, not just recession. Are those different?
a recession means you might lose your job
a depression means you might lose everything
unless you own it, it can be taken from you in both scenarios.
When you say it like that and I think of my generation and younger that is stuck renting and student loans… maybe I don’t actually own much of anything and if this pattern continues for a long time I could lose everything? I wonder how many more are like me in the same boat. But yeah, for now, it’s not that severe. Thanks for the perspective and help.
The 2008 recession saw a GDP contraction of 4.3%. The Great Depression was 29%.
People are saying "depression" because we're facing many of the same issues as in October, 1929.
We are in deep shit. AI investment is the only thing keeping the economic numbers looking good, and that bubble is going to pop far harder than the dotcom crash. 7 companies hold 40% of the stock market's value (or is it S&P 500?) and everyone of them is all in on AI.
I expect a series of mini crashes where they halt trading to stave off panic. No idea how that plays IRL though, may be very wrong.
The US is not in a recession as of this posting date. I read something recently from Fidelity Investments that suggests that the US is heading toward a recession.
Your exact question was found on the Q&A page
Supporting evidence Key takeaways
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The US economy continues to grow, although it is sending some mixed signals.
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Corporate earnings remain strong even as consumer expectations sag.
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US tariff policy remains uncertain, and much of the impact from tariff hikes is still ahead.
Additionally, you may find this page interesting. It charts the business cycle across countries and quarters. If you play with the selections, you'll see that countries' economies do not always progress forward, nor are the rates of change consistent, so the page is not a predictor of what's to come.
FWIW, a financial advisor that I know said that his company is recommending that their investors shift to a portfolio with more foreign investments.
If you did not include AI spending we would be in a recession. So for most regular working people 100% we are in recession. Shit is going to pop off when SNAP is allowed to run out.
There's no real way to officially know anymore. Data is dead.
Depression
The recession started in 2019
@higgsboson@piefed.social up in here downvote bombing everyone alone