America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky
America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky
America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky
Gee, I wonder why tariff revenue looks shaky. Well, I mean, there's the fact that tariffs don't generate revenue and never have. There is no account with tariff money accumulating in them. The money exacted for tariffs leaves circulation is entirely, it's basically destroyed.
Well tariffs are import tax. Imports are driven by consumption and consumption doesn't go up in response to heavy new taxes.
That depends a bit on the type of consumption. Foreign versus domestic. The problem being that capitalists hollowed out all manufacturing in the United States. And so now most of the consumption is from foreign sources. There are no domestic sources, and therefore it is simply a flat price increase.
I don't support the tariffs, but that's not really true. Tariffs are basically taxes. They go to the government. Presumably they would then be redistributed through government programs. You can say what you will about how effective those programs are, but the money does not just disappear and is certainly not destroyed.
Tariffs only go to the government when people can actually afford to pay them.
When Tariffs jack up the costs of goods in a supply chain exponentially higher than they've even been, small to medium sized business can't afford their now Tariffed supply chain and don't pay.
That's how the money disappears. Whatever industry Tariffs are added to is now an industry that small to mid size companies can no longer afford to manufacture in. Which lowers the total value of that market as the profits smaller businesses had are now captured and destroyed by Tariffs.
Without Tariffs, the supply chain is affordable. With Tariffs, it's destroyed and doesn't magically come back. Soy bean market? Literally no more future profit potential now that our largest buyer has gone elsewhere.
Tariffs just effectively convert long term viable market wealth to short term government wealth in a time when markets are already suffering.
In no reasonable calculation will the gains of any Tariff offset the long term losses in the market those Tariffs destabilize. There's literally hundreds of years of historical evidence supporting this as the outcome.
Eldritch is right, but it’s kinda like Newtonian physics vs general relativity: you can think of (federal) taxes as “funding the government” and it’s not a terrible approximation. But it’s not the reality.
The reality is more like what Eldritch said: money is spent into existence, and taxed out of existence. The issuer of a currency doesn’t need to take the currency from you in order to spend it — they need to destroy it so that their newly-printed currency is actually worth chasing after.
Sounds like a distinction without a difference, right?
Except it matters when we talk about “tariffs funding the government” (cuz they don’t) or “how are we gonna pay for something like the green new deal?” (paying for it is the easy part, controlling inflation is the real constraint).
When we talk about major economic initiatives, it kinda matters for people to understand how money actually works. Musk, for example, had no clue and thought he had uncovered some massive scandal when he gained access to the federal payment system and was confused at how the funds don’t actually come from anywhere: https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/elon-musk-discovers-the-magic-of
Yes it's true. Taxes don't work that way either.
Simple question to ask yourself. If the government can simply create money, which they can. Why would they need to fundraise through taxes. When they can simply print the money. Answer, they don't. They can simply print it. The issue is that if you create too much you devalue it. Then you need to destroy some to bring it's value back up.
This is why despite constant cries from the fascists bemoaning deficit spending. Claiming government should be run like a business. It's all bullshit. When a government can print money and receive a 2x or better return on investment. Which they often do. Deficit spending effectively pays for itself.