This one simple chart explains why Trump's tariffs are doomed to fail.

well allright, first its not a trade war "with" the us, its the us fucking around to find out. the only way this "trade war" was started by anyone except the us is what people in general just call "trade", trade always is trying to get most out of buying/selling or making contracts, which the bully never likes when he was bad at it and lost a round or two maybe because he's just better in bullying than trading.

its the us who is at trade war, everyone else is just trading and reacting to other market members actions and other changes in the market. And somehow funnily the us nowadays mainly seems to fight against its own citizens and its future, but thats the freedom they are all in the us for, right?

(btw do you still believe that "winner takes it all" would be democracy in any way just because there was an election involved?)

when you're doing your business and a bully steps in, its not you swinging between what you want, its you're in a situation beeing dangerous due to bully beeing bully or agressor beeing agressor.

if a robber enters the bank, its not the employee swinging between doing their job and helping the robber. they're still doing their job when deescalating.

when a trade partner goes unrelyable and you seek another trade partner, its not you swinging but you stay just trading while that unreliable one swings between trading and doing something different, in this case going rough and trying a 'trade war' with everyone else. its not about the tariffs every country can put unneeded extra weights on their citizens and no other country can stop them. the reactions are due to the abrupt changes that make that trade partner unreliable as a trade partner. when you want to get eggs and the shop says they cost 100$ each. you decide to have one for breakfast, take it from the shelve and while on your way for paying the shop owner says they cost 125$ each now, you just switch to another shop, not because you cant afford the 25$ but because the shop owner is just unreliable to trade with. just telling the world about such tarrifs a year ahead or making them increase slowly like 1% more per month until you reach those 25% extra weight for us citizens would have made the difference between an unreliable trading partner and just a trading partner with bad trading habits. same with insulting. when you are a worldwide respected trading country and one of your main trading partner starts to insult you, stopping to trade with him is not swinging, but you just don't trade with someone who makes it extra hard to trade with without loosing international respect.

when your neighbour insults you without reason and you stop doing things for free in his favor, its not you swinging between beeing a good neigbour or not, its him swinging between beeing a good neighbour and not.

in a way it might look like swinging but its not swinging between two options when one option just faded away or became the worst option or beeing involved in a 'war' as was used as a term, its that option swinging between beeing a probably good and an obviously really bad one.

its not the one who reacts who is "swinging" when one of the options he'ld like to choose from becomes brittle or poisoned so he just reacts and reconsiders all of them.

a trader always cozies to trading, at best to reliable trading but ey explicitly not to someone who wants to fuck around instead of just trading. no one leaving the us alone today 'swings' or cozies to somewhere else because they always cozied towards the better option and that didn't change at all. no swinging happened outside the us so far. its the us who changed towards not beeing a trade partner any longer.

i myself are removing some little contracts i had with a company in the us to change to others because i consider it sort of a risk now to have any binding to the us today. its a company in canada and one in another country that 'won' my election who to trust more than that us company i was a customer of for over a decade now. its really small, you might pay more in eggs per year these days than what i move out of the us now, but i am just afraid of the hazzle of what i consider likely to happen in the us soon. the reason for a company in canada is just two reasons: they showed to be a reliable country, and i looked there first for some sympathy for their kindness in how they kept standing a bully. its two companies i switch to now due to some relevant price differences. overall i think i'll pay 10$ more per year for the security gain of not having monthly payments to the us any more for something i want to actually function. its 10$ CAD btw not usd ;-) lower prices don't always compensate for beeing an unreliable trading partner. while that company i move away from didn't do anything wrong until now, they are just in a country and bound to a regime that does. i would have stayed with them if it was not for the overall insecurity the us regime causes within the us currently which could probably also affect me due to those contracts. i am not swinging between the us and another country, i just happened to have a contract to a company there and switch to the seemingly longterm better option, thats what customers do and i am willing to pay more for the more stable option. as of jan 27 there are over 600 million of such contracts worldwide with over 20% of them served from the us. i move just my own 5 away from the us, but if i am not the only one who thinks that way, it could become relevant by numbers, at least for those us companies. if all look in canada first, it could be yet another half billion usd per year loss for the us bully and gain for their friendly northern neigbours, just because of people like me want to be customers of reliable providers. well we'll see if that happens by the upcoming statistics.

please never mix the cause with the effect unless you are in an actual discussion about backward-flowing-time-physics 😉

i couldnt sleep, so i wrote a lot, sry for that