I actually think they're correct. It explains most of it and jives with my experience.

The amount of plastic used is fixed. Here is a bottle blank I have for a 2 or 3 liter soft drink:

We're assuming that milk jugs are blow molded from a similar blank at the bottling plant just before washing and filling.

Milk bottles are either High or Low Density Polyethylene. A notoriously elastic plastic. It also creeps all over with temperature, you can take a bowed 3" thick sheet of it, put it on the floor and it will usually be flat in the morning, especially if it's above 75deg F or so.

Milk jugs aren't a pressure vessel like soft drink bottles.

They're saying that due to the large surface to volume ratio and thin walls, there is a lot of seasonal variation in final volume. This is primarily due to the compressed air used during blow mold, ain't nobody paying to heat or cool it. Also, the ambient temps in the plant, in the blow mold area may see 40deg F swing, maybe more, over the course of a year. They aren't going to pay to condition the air if it doesn't affect final product. Fuck worker comfort.

This would be enough to show seasonal variation in milk level due to volume changes, especially since the jug necks up and exaggerates differences. Reduced headspace probably also keeps it fresh longer due to reduced oxygen. Mostly, if your competetior's jug looks more full, you sell less milk. One producer does it, they all have to do it.

It's a totally believable and logical explanation to me.