After Biden's debate performance, new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds the presidential race is unchanged

www.npr.org /2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll

67 comments

I'd rather vote for a literal corpse than vote GOP at this point.
- Be careful what you wish for.
  
  Well personally I'm looking forward to the corpse administration.
  
  Mel Carnahan won his Senate race.
- I'm the same, my goal in November is to vote against trump. I would love to be able to vote for a candidate that I think would be a great President, or a good President, or even just not an evil President... but barring a better choice, I'm voting for the Democrat option.
  Biden isn't a good choice, but the team he has put together is doing a good job of running things with or without him and I'd be fine keeping that going for another 4 years - or however long he has left. I'd be happier with a more progressive, younger, sharper candidate, but ultimately my goal for this next election is to vote against trump.
- Yeah, but some people require a pulse...
  So we can run the corpse, and hope that's enough to stop trump.
  Or we can run someone with a pulse, hell, even a functional competent adult.
  And we'll keep all of those corpse voters, and gain even more Dem voters
  So shouldn't we run the non-corpse candidate?
  Like, more votes is better...
  
  and gain even more Dem voters
  That might be true, but
  The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
  
  Yeah, but some people require a pulse...
  Do those people want a Democratic president but believe Trump would be better than Kamala? Do they believe the Republican platform (ie end democracy and reform as an authoritarian theocracy) is better than the Democratic platform on any particular issue?

I suspect that the debate was an "emperor has no clothes on" moment for Democratic politicians. Everyone already knew that Biden is old but no one who thought that was a big problem wanted to be the first one to say so. (Why risk being sidelined for disloyalty to the party in the case where you speak out but then no one else does?) The debate was just the tipping point that made age an issue the politicians were willing to talk about, but voters don't have the problem with being disloyal that politicians do so they had already taken Biden's age into account in a way that politicians publicly hadn't.
With that said, these national polls are fun for people who watch the election like a sporting event but they're a poor way to actually predict victory. How many electoral college votes each candidate will have is independent from his support in much of the country, where only a catastrophic event could possibly change a state's electoral outcome. Meanwhile in swing states the small difference in polls like this appears to be magnified in Trump's favor.
- National polls are essentially garbage in close elections. They really only say if there's going to be a landslide. The fact nationwide polls are close and getting closer is generally bad for an incumbent.
  
  With you until the last line. I guess "generally" saves it. I don't think you can say these close polls are bad for Biden, because as you pointed out polling is essentially garbage. I think it's a mix of selection bias and some phenomenon by which some people just lie to pollsters. Even exit polls have been increasingly unreliable.

This is not good news.
Reminder:
Biden was TEN POINTS ahead of where he is now back in 2020.
Biden ASKED for this debate because he was already trailing in the polls and not where he needs to be. At best things remain the same, which is to say poor. At worst, they are worse.
2020 was decided by 40,000 undecided low-info apathetic voters in 3 battleground states. If those people remain apathetic and polls remain this close, Biden will lose.
His own campaign staff is now reportedly saying they see no viable path to victory.
Further key points raised in this poll/article:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.
Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote
When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.
- they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president.
  I don't care. I absolutely know that trump lacks the mental, moral, and leadership fitness to be President. And if both candidates were President now and died in their sleep tonight, I have absolute faith that Biden's team would do their best to keep the country running while Trump's team would immediately start dismantling the country and handing the pieces to those least fit to be near power.
  
  All due respect to your views and my views, but unless you're my low-info apathetic battleground swing-voter uncle who will decide this election, your opinion and mine matter very little.
  If the country were as informed as you and me, then we wouldn't have either of these candidates to begin with.
- It’s good news relative to my expectations which were that things would get worse. But yes, the situation looks quite dire here.
  
  I still remember when the Biden campaign was promising the debate was the moment that was going to turn everything around. That obviously didn't happen, but I also don't know if the debate actually changed anything or just made everybody who was going to vote for Biden/against Trump anyway more depressed without changing their votes.
  For whatever this voters' opinion is worth - I think Biden's an overly conservative ass, but I think anyone that's likely to replace would be too, so that's a wash, and as far as the age thing goes I think we've had less functional people in the oval office and figured it out (see; Reagan's second term), so I don't really care about that. I just want Trump to lose and for the DNC political machine to have a major change in their leadership and direction before 2026 and 2028.

It’s worth noting that NPR’s national newscast mentioned that, with 3rd party candidates, and since Biden is trailing significantly in key swing states, he would need to do be doing better in a national poll if he were to be doing well. Right now the odds are still in Trump’s favor.
- Yep
- I know it's already ongoing, but has the official race started yet?
  
  I’m a little confused. Can you elaborate? What do you mean by the official race?
  That said, Biden and Trump have not been officially nominated by their parties. The GOP convention is the week of July 15th, and the Dems are the next month. That’s when the state delegates lock in the candidates.

If they're polling "likely voters" then it really shouldn't change. The people most likely to vote are usually also the most engaged, therefore they've already decided. I think most "swings" in the polls are just due to sampling. It's the unlikely or sort of "fair weather" voters that are going to make or break things. Also, gerrymandering and vote suppression.

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
And 60% polled said trump was going to win....
But I'm sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.
- It doesn't matter who people expect to win and who they consider the underdog. The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.
  And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.
  
  The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.
  *In swing states, unfortunately.
  
  And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.
  Factually untrue:
  But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
  You didn't even have to click the article, OP quoted it in the summary...
  Did you not even read that?
  Are you going to change your conclusion now?
  Or will you act like a trump supporter and change your "logic" so that you still get the conclusion you want?
- A lot of people are afraid Trump is going to win, and that's motivating them to vote for Biden. The results you're quoting support this.
  I want Democrats to think Trump is going to win, otherwise they'll stay home like they did in 2016.
- Not quite. 60% said they don’t think Biden can do the job, not that Trump would win
  Edit: read further down and yeah 6 in 10 said they think Trump will win, you right
  
  Yeah there's not much good news in there...
- I agree things are bad, and I wish we had a better candidate than Biden.
  But we don't. Biden is the candidate, and he must win.
  I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won't win. Overconfidence hurt Clinton in several states. Democrats are going to be talking about it, encouraging their friends to vote, shaming people for supporting Trump, and freaking out about another Trump presidency. We don't want complacency.
  
  I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win
  This is like as a plane plunges into the ocean, the pilots making an announcement thanking passengers for putting their seatbelts on.
  And I have zero idea why you're still insisting Biden can't be replaced
  I could have sworn we got over that speed bump. A couple times really...
  Edit:
  Yeah. That was you
  Sorry man. I dont think us repeating this again will help.
  You're gonna have to ask someone else for help

I see every headline references "polls" now. That's bad.

Suppose the "best case" scenario for Biden materializes. He hangs on, remains the nominee, and pulls an upset against Trump in November.
Even in this scenario, I'd argue that his legacy is irrevocably tarnished. His decision in 2022/2023 to run would still be a terrible decision, like a poker player betting the whole pot on a horrible hand and winning by dumb luck. His staff would still be complicit in lying to the world. It would be the shabbiest victory imaginable... and all that before the question of how he lasts another four years in office.
- None of that matters as much as beating Trump tho
  
  Yeah, he said exactly that in the speech last night. Didn't anyone watch it?
  Someone asked him "What about your legacy?" He said he didn't care about his legacy, he cares about "finishing the job" and getting things done for the United States of America. That's exactly what you want to hear from a presidential candidate.
  "Legacy" is something journalists care about because they don't do anything tangible. They just write articles about people who actually do things. Biden's focus on action actually made me like him more.
  
  That's the point. Biden's legacy is most likely a Trump second term, alongside a Republican Senate and House. Even if he wins by dumb luck, it would still have been a bad decision, like a bad poker play that wins.

Yeah, that's about what I expected. No one cares that Biden is a low-energy gaff machine, because he wouldn't've ever been president. Biden had the opportunity to rise above expectations, and he failed. But that just means he performed as expected, and no one is going to think less of him for it.

This is the best summary I could come up with:
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character.
A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states.
That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump.
The original article contains 932 words, the summary contains 166 words. Saved 82%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

And Biden stans like polls again.
- The cognative dissonance is hilarious. They choose which data and news is important based on how it makes them feel. The fear of Trump is turning them into exactly what the Republicans used to be. I promise it's okay to acknowledge polls and stories that don't priase Biden.

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