Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory

www.washingtonpost.com /world/2023/08/20/ukraine-counteroffensive-analysis-war-russia/

170 comments

As far as I can tell, this prolifically posting account has literally never posted an article that wasn't negative on Ukraine, and posts about 90% negative on the West in general. For whatever that's worth.
- And half the comments in this thread are from queermunist, who's all for the "just let Russia have what it wants and everything will be great" side.
  The flood of Rexiters did a lot to smother the tankie presence on the Lemmyverse, but it's clearly still a strong undercurrent.
  
  You joined a platform founded and inhabited by Marxist Leninist and checks notes … expected them to leave. Wtf?
  
  Eager to see what coping everyone switches to when it becomes obvious to Ukraine that the deal Russia offered in 2022 before the Kiev withdrawal was the best possible reality they would ever see again. Little Weimar on the Dnieper. No NATO, no EU, no Donbass, no Crimea.
  Then again the epic bacon sirs will probably be given a new shiny thing in Asia or Africa to focus on.
- I guess Washington Post is Russian propaganda now...
  
  I didn't attack the source. I just pointed out that someone posting more than most on lemmy could push a certain point of view using any and all sources if they cherry pick.
- They're 10% positive on the West? Thank you for this valuable information comrade. We'll be sending them back to the reeducation center for ideological training purposes.
  
  Ha, I knew it! I knew the OP was a Kremlin asset and it wasn't just me grasping for reasons to not engage with an article from a credible mainstream source because it presents an inconvenient reality.
- Posting "90% negative on the West in general" is still softballing it.
  But yeah... still lots of pro-Russian propaganda flowing around here.
- Thanks for looking into it!
- God forbid someone tries to have a well rounded opinion on the situation through all the western propaganda by contributing articles outside of the one narrative you choose to believe.
  
  I actually read most of Nightowl's submissions for the reason you mention, to read outside my "narrative." But they have an agenda and people should know that.
- Well I don't believe you're real either.
  
  If this is a play on my username, I laughed.

Unfortunately Russia's strategy of mining the front so heavily it won't be safe for a hundred years is proving pretty effect at slowing the Ukrainian advance. I hope the rest of the world never lets up on the sanctions. Russia is a fucked backwater that loves war crimes. They need to be punished.
- Excessive sanctions long after the reason for them can have a detrimental long term outcome. I am with you to sanction hard while they occupy even one square inch and I emotionally want then to pay for long after but in the name of stability, that is not the best option.
  The reality is that this conflict is only being driven by a relatively small number of people. Everyone else is along for the ride or being brainwashed. Punish those people for life but unfortunately that will never cover the economic cost much less that of life.
- They love war crimes? We love war.

Denys Davydov did video on these type of comments about a week ago. He dragged up a lot of newspaper front pages of the invasion of the Nazis in 1945. There was a ton of articles stating just how slow the move was going. An attacking force is always going to have a hard time against a very entrenched enemy. You also have to remember Ukraine does not have a good air force until they get those pilots trained up for the F-16. They are making gains and are knocking on the second defence line in two areas. Any gains Russia has made they loose 2 days later, with the exception of Bakhmut.
- That's just not true. Ukraine has not even gotten through the first defense line anywhere along the front. Where are you referring to with them knocking on the second line?
  
  So it is a lie that they have broken through to Robotyne?
- Ukraine will not receive F-16 fighter jets from its allies this year as hoped, a spokesman for the country’s Air Force said late Wednesday, confirming that, as expected, the advanced planes won’t play a role in the current counteroffensive.
  However, American officials have said that Ukraine has identified only eight combat pilots — less than a single squadron — who speak English well enough to start a period of training expected to last at least a year.
  If D-Day was reliant on eight fighters being operational in June 1945, I don't think the chances of success would be very high.
  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/world/europe/ukraine-f16-jets-nato.html
  
  Precisely the point. The allies had air superiority. Ukraine does not, therefore you cannot expect the same gains.
- And another important thing to bear in mind is that the start of the advance is the hardest part of the advance. Russia has built up a thick crust of defensive lines. At some point the advance penetrates that crust, and then the gooey center goes much more quickly.
  
  Unless the Russians abandoned all of good Soviet military doctrine (which is quite possible since they're so virulently anti-communist), that is the furthest from the truth possible.
  The Soviet military doctrine has been Deep Operation since the founding of the nation, where there is no single hard battlefront, instead keeping the combat line deep and flexible. Unless there is significant evidence to the contrary, I would assume that the operational paradigm for the Russian military remains the same.
  
  Now I want cupcakes. Dammit.
- What invasion of the nazis in 1945 are you talking about?
  You mean Allied advances into Germany?
  Also can't deny that denys guy is far from an impartial source lol
  
  OFC he is not impartial. The media articles he linked were partisan towards the allies mentioned in them. Even in their own press the allies were referred to as being slow. This was not seen as a criticism. Germany were seen as a formidable force to be reckoned with. The fact they were even moving in the right direction at all was to be commended. There was an understanding that the task was difficult, much like Ukraine removing Russia is now.
- I respect him as a voice of reason

And what is wrong with Ukraine not just bashing its head into russian defenses and instead go for a slow-and-steady approach? They still have reserves to spare, word is Ukraine is rotating its troops on the front regularly. So as long as Ukraine can keep up the pressure and russia not being able to stop their slow advance, they will be successful eventually. Would another Kharkiv thrunder-run be preferable? Surely.
But russia is prepared this time. And instead of being all doom-and-gloom, the West could step up its commitment to see Ukraine win. Apart from artillery shell production, weapon manufacturers still see no increase in weapons procurement. It's time for the West to let actions follow its words on support of Ukraine. As long as their words ring hollow, Putin only has to wait and eventually outpace dwindling western support.
- The problem of that approach is that winter is coming soon and battles will soon ground to a halt. Which will give Russians the time to build up their defensive layers again.
  Spring offensive of 2024 will commence afterwards. And then the spring offensive of 2025, 2026, 2027...
  
  Plus tanks work better in the winter and Russia has quite a few of them which are cheap and easy to deploy.

Ukraine is fighting for their existence, russia is fighting for the oligarchs. Ukraine will prevail.
- It will just take the Great Men of History to rise up, show how destined they are as Main Characters (such as yourself) and then after an epic boss battle with Putler and his secret lover Drumpf, they, and you, will be shown to be the Adults In The Room that Made The Hard Decisions and saved the Rules-Based Order.
- The oligarchs declared war on the oligarchs, but rest assured the oligarchs will win.
  Actor Volodymyr Zelensky stormed to the Ukrainian presidency in 2019 on a wave of public anger against the country’s political class, including previous leaders who used secret companies to stash their wealth overseas.
  Now, leaked documents prove that Zelensky and his inner circle have had their own network of offshore companies. Two belonging to the president’s partners were used to buy expensive property in London.
  The revelations come from documents in the Pandora Papers, millions of files from 14 offshore service providers leaked to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and shared with partners around the world including OCCRP.
  The documents show that Zelensky and his partners in a television production company, Kvartal 95, set up a network of offshore firms dating back to at least 2012, the year the company began making regular content for TV stations owned by Ihor Kolomoisky, an oligarch dogged by allegations of multi-billion-dollar fraud. The offshores were also used by Zelensky associates to purchase and own three prime properties in the center of London.
  https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora-papers/pandora-papers-reveal-offshore-holdings-of-ukrainian-president-and-his-inner-circle
  
  Wow, such quality source, so much tankie.
- Least Marvel brained liberal.
- To also be absolutely clear, no Ukraine is not fighting for its existence. Russia's interest in territorial gain extends only to the areas of majority Russian-speaking, ethnically Russian populations.
  
  This is for the very simple reason that it's literally not possible, in the modern world, to hold territory in which the native population does not want you to remain. Trying to do so will only result in a very long, very costly anti-insurgency campaign and your eventual defeat. This is exactly what NATO was hoping for when they baited Russia into attacking, that they would try to occupy and hold the whole of Ukraine. Instead, Russia only bit off as much as it could chew and is now allowing the Ukrainians to waste all their soldiers and equipment by attacking into impenetrable fortifications. When that's done, they'll counter-counterattack, grab some more Russian speaking land, and then let the limping Kiev rump state collapse under neoliberal austerity shock doctrine privatization administered by their 'allies' in the West. Ukraine could have avoided all this by upholding either of the two Minsk agreements that were painstakingly worked out by diplomats from both sides, but unfortunately the hand of their masters in Washington was too strong.
  
  You're deluding yourself trying to explain russian millitary failure as some sort of advanced move. Remember the intense fighting at Hostomel airport? The huge column stuck on the road to Kyiv? They totaly thought Ukraine leadership would flee and they'd be able to take the capital.
  russian speaking land
  what makes you think russian speaking people support Putin's regime? They don't. That's like assuming Zelenskyi supports Putin's regime because he's a native russian speaker.
- I will try to remember this in 6 months.
  
  is 1 week special operation going well ?
- That's the hope but that didn't save Georgia.

This is the best summary I could come up with:
Ukraine appears to be running out of options in a counteroffensive that officials originally framed as Kyiv’s crucial operation to retake significant territory from occupying Russian forces this year.
Meanwhile, a war weary Ukrainian public is eager for leaders in Kyiv to secure victory and in Washington, calls to cut back on aid to Ukraine are expected to be amplified in the run up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
“The question here is which of the two sides is going to be worn out sooner,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Center for a New American Security, who visited Ukraine in July.
Sak, the adviser to the defense minister, said the slow progress clearing extensive mine fields along the front is preventing Kyiv from engaging the majority of its Western-trained reserve forces.
Ukrainian forces have retaken roughly 81 square miles of occupied territory since the counteroffensive began in June, with the greatest gains occurring near Bakhmut in the east and in the Zaporizhzhia region south of Orikhiv.
The Biden administration has “very successfully” managed risk of a direct conflict with Russia by gradually providing Kyiv with more advanced weapons systems and longer-range munitions, said Kelly Grieco, who researches air power operations as a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a D.C.-based policy group.
The original article contains 1,338 words, the summary contains 223 words. Saved 83%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

Is there a reason the European powers aren't chipping in? They realize Putin is going to invade them next, right?
- What makes you think European powers aren't chipping in?
  https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/28/how-much-has-the-eu-given-to-ukraine-compared-to-the-us
- Where did you get this from?
  
  History. No bloodthirsty conqueror ever stopped conquering until someone stopped him, usually by killing him.
- Nukes

Wouldn't munitions like the HIMARS with tungsten balls set off these mines they've used?
Why not make smaller versions to shot gun blast a path?
- You are stupid for saying this or even having the thought in your head.
  A HIMARS blast is a few meters wide at best. Each rocket is about $240,000. There are probably dozens of km of mine fields between the front line and the sea of azov and Russia can deploy mines remotely to fill any gaps that Ukraine makes.
  
  The blast from the ones using the tungsten balls literally covers a massive area.
  It uses AoE by a blast up in the air that scatters 180000 balls over 85 meters.
  That's about the size of an American football field.
  That's a bit more than a few meters, you inbred Tankie.
- I think a mine-clearing line charge does something similar to what you have in mind.
  
  Those are neat to watch. There's always the Flail
- "Shot gun blast a path" through the minefield. Brilliant, now you have all the troops in a line ready to be mowed down by the Russians.
  If it were that easy they would have done it already.

Vlad Vexler tried to explain why the some in the western political left, defend russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=017WGzJ5fHA
- Oh god I actually watched half of this. He says the left (apparently Jeffrey Sachs is left now?) just bought Putin's argument about security concerns, but (big reveal about halfway in, choir music swells), Putin is actually driven by mystical thinking and megalomania.
  So Putin is lying when he talks about realpolitik or says anything that makes any sense. But when he speaks of history or the motherland or whatever, then he's telling the truth. He's definitely not just doing a bit of story telling to hit on those emotions. No Sir! That's a window right into his soul. And apparently his personal feelings are enough to move whole armies.
  Maybe, just maybe, there are actual material reasons for why stuff happens, and it's not just ideas in the minds of individual "great men".
- Nah I'll ride w noam over some goatee wearing dipshit thx
  
  For all his faults, there are moments when I still have to appreciate him. Like watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJGYmfTaFRw
  This babyfaced brit fuckwit is in absolute overdrive trying to steer the framing and questions to the 'correct' viewpoint and he just gets battered aside by a wizened ancient spouting facts. To the point of having to disclaim beforehand that the interview might not meet acceptable thought-cleanliness standards for the civilized mind.
- What does that have to do with the article?
- Here is an alternative Piped link(s): https://piped.video/watch?v=017WGzJ5fHA
  Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
  I'm open-source, check me out at GitHub.

Quick, throw more money on the fire!
- The problem is that Ukraine is given enough not to lose, but not enough to win. At this rate, Ukraine will depend on western hand-outs much longer than if the West fully committed to see Ukraine restore its borders.
  
  What do you think "winning" looks like tho? Absolutely annihilating Russia?
  
  The problem is that Ukraine is given enough not to lose, but not enough to win.
  The problem is that Ukraine is given what the West can afford to give, they haven't got the industry to fight Russia's war machine in a war of attrition anymore after deindustrialization and the shift to neoliberal policies. Sucks to suck, shouldn't have shipped manufacturing to China to crush their domestic labor movement 😄
  
  That's the point. The West doesn't want the war to ever end.
- Better than the tankie method of using lives instead!
- It’s good use for the money, this way it’s not used to buy Russian fossil fuel or help billionaires commit suicide in expensive vanity submarines.
  
  this way it’s not used to buy Russian fossil fuel or help billionaires commit suicide in expensive vanity submarines
  This is actually a much better way to use the money,lmao. Also _elenskyy should have just stuck to playing the piano with his knob.
  Haha, pianist :submarine:

170 comments