Will there really be a big influx of users on the 30th?
I’ve seen many comments and posts regarding the API fiasco on Reddit, with the claim that there will be a huge influx of users when that happens. I’m all for it, but I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.
I'll be directing all of my users in Sync to lemmy.world tomorrow.
Wow this is actually the dev of Sync! Guys this is big! Thank you, this will be huge, hope it her dev will follow.
Very exciting! And Sync for Lemmy is even more exciting! Question, do you plan on adding Kbin support in the future? Maybe when their API is released?
He has said he plans to support kbin in the future. But he is working on a MVP minimum viable product right now to get something that works out asap and then start addressing things like kbin support down the road. He just needs time and the support of the community. You can follow the project at !lemmy.world/c/syncforlemmy (hopefully I did that right...)
king
I'm so excited for you! Sorry Reddit just disregarded third party app developers like you guys were nothing, absolutely disgraceful. Without your app, my SO & I have no desire to browse the site for fun anymore. Thanks for aiding in hours of fun for us!
Loved sync, hope that the Apollo dev does this too.
I think the influx will be on the 1st. People are gonna try to fire up reddit on their fav app, it won't work, and a good number of them will do something else.
A portion of those will look for alternatives. Most of those people will probably end up here. I don't think it's going to be a gigantic number or anything, due to how many "gates" there are to go through, but I'm expecting the biggest single-day increase so far.
I agree. Reddit has been trying to sweep all this under the rug, and as pathetically transparent as their efforts are they have worked well enough that a lot of "casual" users probably have no idea what's coming. When the 1st rolls around and they suddenly can't use Reddit (as far as they know it) then quite a few will be looking for somewhere else to go.
I mean a lot of them will probably just grab the official Reddit app, but 30 minutes using that ad-infested garbage pile may dissuade them from sticking with it.
And at least the dev of Sync will or has already rolled out an update to explain why the app isn't working anymore and that Sync for Lemmy is on development.
There's no better advertisement, really.
It depends. From what I understood, moderation on Reddit will become really hard after this. So the site will go down in user experience on content, worse than it is now. That’s outside of the 3rd party apps like Apollo no longer working but will have a negative impact. It sounded like some mods would just walk away than deal with not having robot spam bots to help, which it is volunteer. That could spur on further churn, again, because quality suffers.
I removed my Reddit apps and don’t plan to go back. Having said that, the tech here is still in its infancy. I see bugs daily, the native app version of this experience is not super adoptable by a mass market yet, but it can all improve with time and more bodies interested here.
Long term, this broad concept of decentralization seems to be populous. I think people don’t understand it yet, when they show up it’s rough, and there’s alternatives. But that will all continue to change in the coming months.
I think the majority of people who will go to Lemmy are already here. Nobody waits until reddit has died to search for an alternative. And I think the amount of people who are active on reddit and who haven't heard about the changes that are about to come at all is very small
Maybe, but being here and actively participating in the community are two different things. I've had an account here for a few days and even though I browse it daily I don't really comment or vote much cause I still have RIF. Once that's gone so am I so I'll just focus on Lemmy. It could still make a significant difference.
But at the same time, there are those who won't move unless they absolutely have to. Reddit has not forced their hand, so they don't need to bother as much.
NSFW content (posts, profiles, and subs) will also not be available via the app, so moderators and users won't be able to see any, which will also make moderation more difficult.
It's unclear whether the official app will be affected, or whether Reddit has a secret API that will exempt it from those restrictions, similar to how they implement the other functions.
It's likely that users will also begin moving over in that case, although it's probably a good idea for Lemmy to have its NSFW tagging done up before then, so there's not just a massive influx of pornographic material.
NSFW content (posts, profiles, and subs) will also not be available via the app, so moderators and users won’t be able to see any, which will also make moderation more difficult.
They have claimed at least that it will be for moderators on the sub, it's still really shit don't get me wrong, but at least that is something.
It’s unclear whether the official app will be affected, or whether Reddit has a secret API that will exempt it from those restrictions, similar to how they implement the other functions.
The official app will continue on being the same shitty mess that it is, it will have access to NSFW stuff, but will still be totally inadequate for moderation.
I think many are simply not doing anything until they have to. Once their app quits working, they'll make a change at that time. Of course not everyone uses Mobile. Personally I don't use mobile much for internet access, mainly desktop browser. In that case I could keep using Reddit same as before, but I don't want to.
So the question is what portion of Reddit users are on mobile, how many will relent to the Reddit app, how many will quit using Reddit altogether, how many will look for an alternative, and finally how many will land on Lemmy or Kbin. Could be a lot, could be not many. We'll find out pretty soon here.
For those that do come this way they'll have a transition phase. There's a lot that's different here and takes some getting used to. Also the lack of certain features may result in some angst. There's bugs too. They fixed some stuff with 0.18.0, but searching for and subscribing to communities is giving me fits now.
Using on Android mobile has been a pleasant experience for me. Just added a shortcut to my home screen. But, I tend to not download an app unless I have to. Years ago when I was on Facebook and Twitter, I always did it that way. I never used their apps.
I am old-ish so I am not sure if that is why when I joined, it was very easy for me to find my way around. I say this because I've been on the internet since the '90s and have familiarity with hunting down what I need versus it just being there in an app.
Ironically, when I started on Reddit back in 2012, I quickly found bacon reader and have been using it ever since. It is one of the few apps I do use. And I will not be using Reddit any other way so I am here for the long run.
I also used Bacon Reader, and was kind of mystified that it wasn't mentioned in any of the dozens of articles about this that I read. I haven't been on it since the blackout and I'm definitely not going back until they realize that their data, as they call it, is actually OUR data. But I won't if BR will be closing up too.
It won’t be instant, but quite a few 3PA users will find it incredibly difficult (maybe even impossible) to make the switch to the official app; it’s just that bad. Hell, I can’t imagine using Reddit without the crutch Apollo provided.
Doubt it. Most people who use a 3rd party app should be aware of the API changes already. If they are interested in the alternatives they would have tried by now.
People who are still unaware of what's going on even after the blackouts, would probably just download the official app.
Perhaps. Or they are biding their time until the blackout then will actively be looking for an alternative.
I'm on here obviously, but still using Reddit until Relay croaks. After that I'm not going to violently l completely quit reddit but without being able to use Relay I'll be using it a lot less, not as a regular contributor. It'll be like how often I use Facebook now compared to how I used it a few years ago.
This is exactly what I think. We might see a fraction of a spike from the few holding out until the very end, but it won't be this mass exodus people keep proclaiming it to be.
Apollo has published many blatant warnings to the app about the shutdown, you literally can't use the app without seeing them. Nobody using Apollo is going to be surprised at being cut off.
I assume the other apps are doing something similar to warn their users.
Those who care are already finding their way over here. Those who don't care are using the Reddit app. Those who are somehow still ignorant of what's happening probably don't use Reddit enough to know the difference.
The only thing we can do is wait and see. It's only three days from now. My personal belief is that there is definitely going to be an influx of new users, but that number won't be too big or unmanageable.
Not as many as you would think. I work in a technical field and most people had no idea there was a protest going on. They also didn’t even know of alternative mobile apps. Most didn’t care and just used the official app. There may be a slight bump, but nothing significant.
I think it'll be significant for Lemmy, but not significant for r.
At the very least I think the bump will be enough for Lemmy to entrench itself within the FOSS space (ie Matrix)
I think it'll be significant, but it won't be an exodus. I can see a solid ~5-6% of Redditors leaving at once, then a small steady trickle afterwards. 6% would double our current active users.
There will be an influx. Not- nearly like the influx over the last week or two though.
But, I would expect a small bump.
Not gonna be a sudden exodus.
More that Reddit's entered a slow death spiral. Redditors will start seeing an upsurge in toxicity, since mods will have left, been replaced with stooges, had their tools taken away, and most of the good mods will have abandoned ship.
Some may come here. Some may move on to Discord or other social media. Some will stick it out on Reddit, but notice that bots and trolls are taking over, whatever moderators are left can't or won't keep up, and the admins are seemingly asleep at the switch.
In a few months, discourse there will have assumed Youtube quality, with bots shouting down human discourse, and trolls scaring anyone remotely normal away. They'll limp along like that for years.
Like Twitter.
And eventually it'll end up like 4Chan, only technically still existing.
I dunno, but the fact that I'm browsing a post with 118 comments using a skin that looks a lot like Apollo tells that things are going in a good direction.
Using WefWef too and I’m surprised how good it is for a PWA. Only thing I miss is haptic feedback.
Ugh, I will implement haptics literally the second Apple gives PWAs installed to home screen an api for that.
I think it really depends on how real the 1% rule of the internet is.
TBH I believe that 90% of mobile users uses the official app. Maybe they don’t know about 3PA, or simply just don’t bother. 3PA might be “for power users/advanced users” to them. All they want from Reddit is just the laugh (and porn probably) when doom scrolling. Not to mention because there is an official app, it’ll be the first result when searching “Reddit” on the app/play store. Most of the time people will just go for the first/official one. This whole API/protest thing will just be another Reddit drama for them and they just don’t care.
However, I believe that this whole thing affects those 1% users the most. For mobile users (of the 1%), I believe most of them are using 3PA. As the official is just too bad. For everyone else (of the 1%), if they care (even just a little bit) about Reddit, they will be greatly disappointed with how Reddit handles the whole situation. They will either have left already, or will be leaving soon. Which then the question will be, to where?
Obviously, users tends to go to wherever places that has the most interesting content to them. If enough 1% users left Reddit, migrated to Kbin/Lemmy, and continued to create content over here, I think those 99% users will eventually migrate as well - especially:
There’s also another possible but quite pessimistic possibility:
Some of those 99% users became the new 1% users, and began creating content with the redesigned UI/official app.
Puts on tinfoil hat Which is what Reddit wants - to kick out the “old”, power/advanced users (users who can and will protest/rebel, in essence), making Reddit into another generic social media platform. With everything under the complete control of Reddit, not its users.
If enough 1% users left Reddit, migrated to Kbin/Lemmy, and continued to create content over here, I think those 99% users will eventually migrate as well
Yeah, that's what I think will be key - if a decent percentage of the experienced moderators of the big subs and most active posters make the move then the quality and usability of Reddit drops hard as they are contributing disproportionately to the site. That would then drag over a good number of ordinary users because without them it becomes a bot haven and OnlyFans aggregator.
I expect the biggest wave has already passed. People who cared about Reddit's behavior saw the writing on the wall three weeks ago and have had time to switch. Lemmy's growth will continue at a slower rate as late adopters make the switch over the next few months. The modest barriers to entry will deter a huge number of casual users, who will either stay on Reddit (most likely IMO) or find other things to do with their time.
I imagine there will be a big uptick in the number of new users but it won't be a huge wave, not initially. Human nature being what it is, users will switch to the official app, mods will try and muddle through with a more limited toolbox and, slowly, the wheels will fall off as people find that the user experience has been degraded, leading to a fairly steady flow of people moving over (and a decent number moving on as Lemmy likely isn't ready for primetime just yet). I think what will be key is whether the most experienced moderators and most active posters make the jump - without them the site is a hollow shell as it is largely built on their disproportionate contribution. That might speed up Reddit's downfall.
The best thing we can do is make their landing as soft as possible.
I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.
Not really impossible if said users "dopamine fix" gets cut off. Which may happen (or not, depending of how intense it is.)
Yeah, I've definitely found my methadone here in the fediverse.
I might be alone, but I don't want or need a huge amount of users. I'd rather discuss the subjects I want to talk about with a smaller group of users. It would be nice to have some familiarity in the comments as well. On the big subreddits, your comment was practically guaranteed to be lost in the sea of thousands of comments unless you were the first to comment, or had bots upvoting you. If I want my comments to be lost, I'll comment on a Tiktok video.
It'll be just like Reddit, if you want to avoid the huge mega popular communities you absolutely can. And the smaller more specific communities that you want to interact with won't have the annoying traffic you're talking about.
Some will.
Not sure how big a number that some will be though.
For people that use 3rd party apps, suddenly they won't work. They'll try the Reddit app, some won't be happy when they see how it looks and some of those will look at alternatives.
Quite possibly some users have already heard about something called Lemmy, but haven't been bothered to leave Reddit. If their app stops working, that might be enough to make them take a look.
There will be a bit of a surge. It won't suddenly be millions.
I would imagine that most of the influx already happened and most people who care should be here (in the threadiverse) already. That is unless:
I would say something about continuing mod protests, but I think if they're not here already they are probably are just mad that it's happening and wouldn't switch.
In any case I cannot see any of these causing an influx on the 30th or even on any timescale shorter than a week.
I think the influx of people self motivated to leave reddit happened, yes. But there's a huge chunk still on reddit using apps that will straight up stop working, what then? Your primary interface with the site being gone is an even stronger motivation than leaving in protest.
Anecdotally I'm still using reddit today (albiet less) but once rif dies... Goodbye reddit I guess
Just like you are here, I find it hard to believe that many app users were not already aware of the situation and made the jump.
I did it and I was using old website design with RES, and there wasn't as much outcry for/discussion about those like RiF or Apollo. The switch was obvious to me and I wasn't going to wait until it stopped working to find out.
The average user would not know about lemmy without a reddit post linking and explaining. It's what got me here.
Reddit started to rate limit 3rd party apps already. At least that was the message I got using sync yesterday. Now I'm here. At least some people will come.
Fwiw, Sync has been seeing ratelimit messages at various times for the last month at least. One example from 30 days back https://www.reddit.com/r/redditsync/comments/13rrpmp/_/
Whether this is to do with the overall removal of 3PAs or not, im not sure, just pointing out.
Good to know, but at this point I'm pretty much done with reddit for good
I started earlier than the 30th as it's clear that Reddit went full twitter.
Never go full Twitter.
It all comes down to mobile UI. Most of most peoples web usage is on mobile phones, occasionally a tablet, rarely sitting at a desk with a laptop or desktop computer.
The reason 3rd Party apps is such a sticking point for Reddit users is because the “factory” options are shite. Both the new and old web interfaces are garbage compared to the factory app, which is also garbage compared with any third party app.
The Steve Jobs Sweet Solution of WebApps was flawed. Twitteriffic and other pioneering mobile Smartphone apps proved that. Proprietary Apps with no alternative destroy intrinsic value of a platform to users. Facebook.app and YouTube.app prove that.
I wonder. I started with a kbin account, no made an account here. I removed all my Reddit accounts but one; waiting to see what happens on the 30th. I don't use it anymore, but am waiting nonetheless to see what happens, on Reddit and elsewhere. Alternatives still need a toooon of work to be usable by the masses. Please someone provide us with some good UX. I have a feeling that people who were gonna leave already left, the rest just started using the app or simply using the web version. I'm not gonna lie, whilst I'm here, I don't find the "need" / fomo to visit. I don't know if it's the content, the curation or the UI; but something takes getting used to that's for sure.
I don’t find the “need” / fomo to visit
I wouldn't say that's a bad thing. Reddit is purposefully designed to hold your attention, just like every other corporate social media platform. They have a monetary incentive to do so. Lemmy doesn't, and hopefully never will.
Reddit is gigantic, and while Fediversal alternatives are gaining users rapidly there's a long ways to go.
A useful way to look at it is, we don't have to defeat Reddit. We're creating a community as an alternative. Reddit hasn't lost a large number users when judged as a percentage of their base, but many of the people who are leaving are the ones who see where it's going, and are the power users, the knowledgeable people, the cool people. The ones who make Reddit a place worth being.
It's the same with Twitter. A lot of Twitter and Reddit users just keep their heads down and use the service, as it goes to hell around them. A lot of people join social media sites because it's where other people are, or it's where their friends are. People who joined when social media finally broke the internet away from being mostly the domain of the technically inclined. Even now, a lot of people mostly use it for streaming. These people may not leave Twitter or Reddit ever, because they really don't care about it. But the people who were big internet users, or would have been were old enough in the late 90s or early 2000s, those are the kinds of people that Reddit, and Twitter, are losing.
Now, there are a lot of people on Twitter who I'd have thought have jumped ship by now, but to many people admin decisions feel like they have only a theoretical impact unless it affects their experience, or themselves, directly. The best thing that can be done is just keep on being awesome, and make cool posts that can't be found elsewhere. Once a community gets a reputation for that, people will come naturally.
Take my poor man's gold 🏅
I think it depends in part on whether there are some good, short (!) tutorials on how to use Lemmy on Reddit.
People who just want to continue to browse content will be deterred from walls of text with technical details about the Fediverse and how Lemmy works. It should really be a step-by-step instruction... ideally offering a few instances to choose from at the start. So that the few biggest instances don't break down from the influx and people leave again.
From my experience with unexperienced users, they will drop Lemmy like hot potatoes when they run into the first problem or broken down server.
The Fediverse is still growing and a lot of people aren’t going to want to be there during the growing pains. More likely I suspect there will be a bit of a bump that first week after everything shuts down and then it will even out. We will likely see a slow, but steady organic growth in users over the next few months as users post more content.
I already switched over. But I guess majority of 3rd party app users are still waiting for the last moment.
There will be a good size wave. The big wave is coming when Reddit sells out and forced to get rid of old reddit which is less profitable than its horrible standard interface.
As much as I'm enjoying Lemmy, I don't see the vast majority of Reddit users making the switch to anything. Mastodon, Lemmy, and kbin are far too obscure, and most people use Reddit for pino and memes. People just aren't very technologically inclined and Reddit satisfies the dopamine fix for most regular visitors.
Idk, there are a few avenues that require shockingly little work. Setting up an account on lemmy.world took all of 2 minutes, and then another 2 to find and install Connect. The final result, about 5 minutes after I started, is a home page mostly indistinguishable from the home page of my 3rd party Reddit app.
For those wondering, search "Connect for Lemmy" on Google play store (idk if it's on iOS yet).
If these means we'll be able to have intelligent conversations like the old days of Reddit. I'm all for it. I posted more here than in my 9 years in Reddit. Karma destroyed conversations.
You mean you don't like all the top comments on a serious discussion post just being a bunch of low effort memes and puns??? But the content is the comments you guys! They're so funny I promise!!!
I’ve been thinking that too. Most of the users who care enough probably have heard of the whole thing by now and prepared for it in whatever way makes sense for them. I think the very small number that are left using third-party apps care little enough to either reluctantly move to the official Reddit app (that’s what I used to use, I didn’t even know there were other apps), or they might even care little enough that they’ll just stop browsing Reddit altogether because their interest in it doesn’t match the effort they’d have to do to adapt to the new world in any way.
I think there will be some highly-motivated enough individuals who might have been living under a rock, and we’ll have a little bump, but probably not very big.
That can mean bad things for the servers and people who administrate them. I believe most of them isn't prepared for high traffic spike - even though Lemmy is fairly lightweight, huge amount of new user would mean de facto DDoS.
I dont think it will spike so much on 30th. Rather many already moved to lemmy.
For what it's worth I deleted my Reddit accounts and Apollo the day that Christian Selig announced Apollo would shut down on the 30th. No clue how many people will follow suit but it stands to reason that if I did others will as well. I think it'll probably be fewer refugees than some are expecting. I don't think it'll be like the Digg migration
Possibly, if 3rd party apps go dark and that's all some people were waiting on. I assume a good chunk of people already started looking for alternatives around 6/12 when the blackout started, so I doubt it'll be a huge bump. Anyone looking for alternatives after the 30th are the ones who may not even be that serious about it or don't care about the protest, so they're just as likely to just move over to the "official" Reddit app (formerly a 3rd party app itself called Alien Blue), just as Reddit intended.
I was already planning on deleting my comments/posts/accounts on 6/30 if Reddit didn't back down, and given that their behavior has gotten even worse I'm not seeing any reason to back down from that. Hell, at this point, even if they backed down on the API thing, just their behavior since 6/12 has shown me that I don't really want to have anything to do with that site anymore.
The 30th? No. The 2nd? Maybe.
I’m here!
I was an average user, I think. And was on the mobile web version not any app. But came over here when the subs went dark and wouldn't say it took effort. If they block NSFW except on the native Reddit app, maybe yes there will be an exodus. The native app makes my head hurt, it's truly awful and not easy to navigate.
I would imagine most people planning to head here already have accounts, activity will no doubt go up though.
As the weeks go on though more will find this place and I'm sure there will be more surges to come.
Maybe a bit but it won’t be a tsunami, most Redditors don’t care about the Reddit backend or mods or api changes. Don’t forget we’re just a vocal minority.
Yes
Doubtful, to be honest.
Most who have used 3rd Party apps have already migrated or found some other solution. Those who don't care are still using the official app, and, to be frank, despite what everyone says, the quality content hasn't decreased by that much.
It's still half Twitter and TikTok reposts, and one-fourth 'advice subs' (creative writing), like it's been for several years before this debacle.
Hell, maybe this is a good thing in some ways, where that kind of content can hopefully fall by the wayside over here, instead of choking communities out like it does in Reddit. (I have over 50 popular subreddits on Boost filtered out to avoid this stuff, and it's still not enough to get rid of all of it)
Probably the first since that is the day the bullshit goes into effect.
I'm part timing on both right now, Sync closes down tomorrow and then I'm here full time. We'll see how people trickle in as the various apps close down.
I'm guessing a good chunk of people will be split between creating an account on Lemmy/kbin, raddle, squabbles and possibly tildes. One of the alternatives will most likely win out for users switching from Reddit, I hope it is Lemmy but who knows.
Raddle? They're still kicking?
No. There are good things to look at on Reddit, and effectively nothing around here. This place is incredibly barren and will continue to be unless creative people show up to populate it... which they won't when it's a nightmare just to get an upvote to stick,
I think the issue is more on lack of innovation. People ditched Skype for discord because Discord had many more features and wasn't an unusable mess like Skype was in the mid 2010s. Lemmy is literally just reddit with a few more features.
What do you mean by a nightmare just to get an upvote to stick?
Maybe they mean specific to Kbin where currently only boosts raise your score (and most people will boost rarely) so it's a lot easier to lose score (even from 1 reduce on a favored comment, 1000 papercuts).
I'm on PC and my upvotes...well..don't always stick too. I have the hide-read posts option on and love upvoting to remove stuff i've looked at. But upon going back to the main page by clicking the logo. I have to upvote again, then refresh again for it to vanish. Weird.
I mean one of the main functions of Reddit is link aggregation. People can literally just copy links from Reddit and paste them here. It's not really a creativity problem yet.
I really enjoy the idea of open source, so earlier today I started thinking isn't that the direction the reddit community should take? Couple of minutes and a search later i found Lemmy and thought it was the coolest concept ever. I may not be most reddit users, but the actions reddit have taken certainly got me here. Lack of apps on ios may be problematic as i don't think most users will think of using web apps (or whatever they're called)
I believe the user count will increase similar to Mastodon's when Muskrat took over Twitter. There will be a large increase the first few weeks and then it will slow down. People will join and leave Lemmy but a good number will stay.
If your not familiar with Mastodon it is the Fedeverse's answer to Twitter.
Musk actually did a good thing with Twitter. Reduced cost, got rid of the ridiculous amount of staff and restored freedom of speech.
That's a weird way to say he ruined the site by letting bots run amok (looks like those jobs were valuable after all which is why he had to rehire half of them back), and made paid verification a thing thus ruining the concept.
So now every Nigerian scammer is "Coca Cola" with a blue check mark, yeah the system's really "functional."
Yikes
Nobody knows the future, but speaking as an instance admin, the ideal scenario would be a continued steady growth and not a huge sudden influx 😅
I think it is great here on Lemmy but tbh, the content is limited. My enjoyment here is partly watching it develop. Im like 1 week in and I can see it growing day by day. I don’t think that is what most eventual users want to experience. They want it all set up with the party in full swing.
I love the conversations here. It's just normal people talking. No amateur comedians at the top of threads with their crappy jokes. It's so nice.
Thank you for your service. Would you be interested in testing my modern UI theme for Lemmy on your instance? It works with Lemmy 0.17 and 0.18.0. You can get the CSS files from the releases page.
Hey! I have had a few questions about themes. At this point, I am asking users to apply non-mainlined themes through userscripts - I am wary of taking on extra responsibilities in maintaining compatibility for additional themes. Sorry about that!
But all themes that get added to the main lemmy-ui repo will always be available out of the box on lemm.ee as well. The repo is open to contributions, so you could have a look at that option if that's something you're interested in.