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We could be 16 years into a methane-fueled 'termination' event significant enough to end an ice age

Laymans media

https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age

Academic source

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007875

Plain Language Summary Atmospheric methane's unprecedented current growth, which in part may be driven by surging wetland emissions, has strong similarities to ice core methane records during glacial-interglacial “termination” events marking global reorganizations of the planetary climate system. Here we compare current and termination-event methane records to test the hypothesis that a termination-scale change may currently be in progress.

ABSTRACT

Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of 13Cch4 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane's growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane's current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane's recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.

23 comments

  • From article:

    But in late 2006, something "very, very odd" happened, he said. Methane started rising again, but there was no dramatic shift in human activity to blame — and researchers were left scratching their heads. Then, in 2013, Nisbet and his colleagues realized this rise was accelerating. By 2020, methane was increasing at the fastest rate on record, he said.

    From Wikipedia - Fracking in the United States:

    Between 2005 and 2010 the shale-gas industry in the United States grew by 45% a year. As a proportion of the country's overall gas production, shale gas increased from 4% in 2005 to 24% in 2012.

    Source link: http://www.economist.com/node/21556242 - Shale of the century - The “golden age of gas” could be cleaner than greens think
    archive link: https://archive.is/dRIT - Article dated: Jun 2nd 2012

    We've definitely set off methane deposits in the arctic, the ocean, the tropics, etc. But acting like there's no way of knowing this could have happened or why is just stupid. The global shale oil boom set off by US development of new extraction technologies due to OPEC pressure, the use of which then spread around the globe is definitely a major contributing factor.

    For the majority of the early phase of the fracking boom up to now, methane was vented as they were trying to maximize oil extraction. Pipelines and methane capture equipment were not in place in many locations and have only begun to be due to the rise in LNG prices resulting from Russian supply destabilization. Further, these were known risks at the time that were ignored with a concern only for maximizing oil production and profits.

    This should surprise no one.

    Further documentation:
    Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere
    The chemical signature of methane released from fracking is found in the atmosphere, pointing to shale gas operations as the culprit.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/fracking-boom-tied-to-methane-spike-in-earths-atmosphere
    Archive link: https://archive.is/BvHZg#selection-4479.0-4483.133 - Article dated: Aug 15, 2019

    • The reason this is more relevant and not just fracking stufff is this. Its added ON TOP OF THE FRACKING RELEASES! **

      Isotopically lighter measurements of 13Cch4 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands.**

      • Very true. And, the additional context of the abrupt phase is super valuable in telling us where we are in our current timeline of shifting climate patterns. There's definitely important research here that significantly advances understanding.

        It's just the "scratching their heads", 'how could this have happened, it's so unexpected' bloviating that's constantly prattled over in any of these articles... Drives me crazy. Should drive everyone crazy.

        We're in the midst of a seriously massive great extinction, quite possibly greater than the Chicxulub impact event, and researchers have been trying to put a stop to it for decades, sounding every alarm in the process. Everyone knew, but a small percentage of powerful people have driven us all headlong into the fire. Those most at fault even funded and then hid some of the most significant research into the topic years before the scale of it became wider public knowledge. We should be blaming, accepting blame and being stark in our declarations about what, in general at the very least, is happening, is about to happen and why. The constant hand waving is fucking bullshit.

  • this is the clathrate gun, correct? so we're utterly fucked?

    • The big clathrate gun may not happen, it's still just a theoretical. But what is happening is like constant little fireworks all the time going off...same long term effect really.

    • The clathrate gun hypothesis is kind of specific. Methane, including clathrates, can help doom us without necessarily setting off the proverbial gun. We do already see emissions from clathrates but even so the gun hypothesis (for the near future) is currently unpopular because it's not just about clathrates, it's about a feedback system pertaining to them. To reiterate, though, clathrates are still a concern even without the gun being tirggered.

23 comments