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  • Ah, there it is. A few weeks ago Powell showed he wouldn't fall in line and kiss Trump's ring. A response like this was inevitable.

    • One thing that sticks out to me is that Trump's been badgering Powell to lower the Fed Rate practically since his first day back in office. Powell's been reluctant, in large part because the jobs numbers looked strong and inflation numbers not-so-great (thanks to the threat of tariffs).

      So then Trump threatens prosecution over the Fed building renovations and that kinda goes nowhere. And now we have this sudden, unexpected jobs report saying "Hey actually jobs numbers are bad!" And once again, Trump's badgering Powell to lower the Fed rate.

      The whole thing stinks to high heaven.

      • To be honest, this is just kind of how jobs reports have tended to work since Bush. It is kind of a consequence of both how reporting has failed to really contextualize how jobs reports tend to release in the US, as well as some (arguable) juking of the stats that make it easier to show positive growth in one area and then use the correctance to show the worse numbers.

        Basically the Bureau of Labor and Statistics releases a monthly report, and at the beginning of the year it is based more on statistical modeling ("hockey stick growth! I got $5 today to mow the lawn, and $10 the next day to do it. If this rate keeps up, by next year I'll be pulling in a couple billion."), then they issue corrections as the actual data rolls in and either confirms or denies their modeling.

        24 hour news (cable and online) got into the habit of basically reporting on the monthly reports like they are gospel, when realistically they are only reliable around November or December. I think the Fed encourages it too because it's quietly one of the levers they can use to inspire foreign investment.

        But, it is difficult to adequately describe how seriously the nerds at the BLS take their jobs. They gather and report real-ass data that you can go look at pretty much back to the 60s. This rhythm must be their compromise with the partisan pressures of the executive.

56 comments