What do you think will happen in September?

Trump: more tariffs!

Well with Trump breathing down his neck, I'd expect immense pressure on him to quickly lower interest rates, but I don't think Powell will do that simply because of Trump's threats to fire him. Given that the tariffs haven't yet caused significant price changes in imported goods, these things may change in the coming months.

Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he will remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until 2028, but he wants to do the right thing for the economy and not placate a bully. So I'd expect he would keep interest rates unchanged, unless the threatened tarrifs don't play out like they are planned and if the economy miraculously holds steady, perhaps Powell will flirt with a 25 bsp decrease.