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  • My understanding would be:

    • Probabilities: Chance of a certain outcome happening. E.g. Outcome A has a 70% chance B a 20% and C 10%
    • Possibilities: what outcome scenarios exist. E.g. there exist 3 (A B C). Those Possibilities might have a probability associated with them
    • Plausibility: looks at the degree of truth of a statement. So if it logically makes sense and is the correct answer/is what happened. You might make a judgement of the plausibility of a possibility based on the probability of it happening. Say if something has two outcomes one with a 99% chance and the other 1% then that might be the more plausible one. Or if it has no chance, then it might be implausible

    Edit: since someone mentioned the example of a coin toss.

    Head and tails have a probability of 50% each (for the sake of simplicity I assume it won't land standing up)

    A coin toss has two possible outcomes (possibilities). Head and tails.

    Someone says he flipped a coin and got head 1000 times in a row. That's not plausible with a fair coin because of the low chance of it actually happening (even if there is a indefinitely small chance). As a result you might assume he is either lying or the coin is weighted for that outcome.

    • A coin toss has two possible outcomes (possibilities). Head and tails.

      There is also the extreme implausibility with a <1% probability that it will land on its edge but still more possible than 1000 heads in a row.

      • 1 in 6000 chance for an American nickel, which has a thicker side than most. Just for others sake. I felt it was far less than just <1% and had to find out.

  • Coin toss:

    1. Heads or tails are 50/50 probability.
    2. It is possible that the coin lands on its side.
    3. It is implausible that it splits in two.
23 comments