Conservatives Will Blow It by Keeping Poilievre
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The problem facing the Conservatives is as obvious as it is intractable — unless real change is made. The form of neoconservativism ushered in by Stephen Harper has morphed into angry authoritarianism under Pierre Poilievre. It will not sell in Canada and the electoral record proves it.
Liberals need to be careful here. This was destined to be a conservative landslide if not for foreign interference. Unless Carney is more effectual than a typical new PM with a minority government, the next election will be an easy Conservative win with or without PP at the helm.
Carney doesn't play word games like the others do (see the English debate for reference). He is honest and loves Canada.
What will happen is he'll run circles around almost everyone else and they'll be pissed off he's beaten them ... cause he's smart. (Today's visit with Trump will be interesting to watch.)
You never play a game using someone else's rules. You either change the rules or change the game.
I think it had more to do with Trudeau being PM for almost 10 years and people were looking for change. If he stuck around, Liberals would potentially be third place. Because the Liberals found someone much better than Trudeau, it made Pierre even less likeable and he was either unable or unwilling to be more moderate to steal votes from other parties. Even in the last week, Pierre was talking about ending 'wokeism' and removing the ban on plastic straws. Those 2 issues aren't issues more Canadians care about so why even mention it? He needed to appear more centrist which is where Carney is.
If the CPC can find a relatable leader that doesn't court the extreme-right in Canada, they have a great chance of forming government. That's a big if.
The CPC deeds to de-reform itself and go back to pre-Preston Manning/Stephen Harper days. Until then, they're all complicit, regardless of who leads them.
Much like MAGA took over the Republican Party, The Reform Part (later the Canadian Alliance) essentially took over the narrative after first breaking off from and then later rejoining the Progressive Conservatives.
Yup, that's important. The thing is that Carney also needs to appeal to those that don't really pay attention to politics on a regular basis. Those that finally went to voted this election can possibly be like: "I voted last time and it made no difference".
if not for foreign interference
I guess that really depends on your definition of interference. Conservatives lost because Canadians took one look at the reality of Trump and decided "fuck that...we don't want a politician who acts like him, even in any small way."
Poppingfresh was leading only because the only person we were more sick off than him was Trudeau. Once Trudeau was out of the picture, voters basically said "Oh thank Christ...we don't have to vote for Maple Maga."
Trump being an ass doesn't count as interference. And it's ultimately Poppinfresh's fault that he refused to pivot away from Trump-style rhetoric and polemics when even his own advisors were telling him it was a losing strategy.
That still doesn't account for the roughly 40% of votes that went to him during the election.
I think foreign interference was real and quite pervasive, but people didn't realise it was foreign interference because it was so blatant. I mean, most of the big social media companies are owned by far right US companies, and all private Canadian news outlets are owned by far rights as well. And every single one of those touted far right rhetoric constantly with almost no left representation.
Hell, just ask the average Canadian where they get their Canadian news, and I'll bet a third will say Facebook, despite Meta banning Canadian news from the platform because they didn't want to pay taxes.
Liberals need to be careful here.
Liberals put a Bank of England shill, O&G bagman, and anti-immigrant reactionary into the PM's office. This isn't an issue of being careful. They've ceded to the conservatives on policy and now they're just arguing over aesthetics. Exactly the same fumble Dems made in 2020 when they nominated Biden.
Carney will only be effectual at transferring wealth from the wealthier to the wealthiest. The economic situation in Canada will continue to constrict the working class and people will continue ingesting fascist media out of the internet fire hose. Conditions will not improve. Y'all jettisoned Trudeau but you're still stuck with Trudeau-ism.
Honestly, I think they could run literally anybody and they'll eventually win government. Canadians will only allow the Liberals to win so many times before deciding it's someone else's turn.
They need to do better than PP.
Both Harper and Mulroney are Bronze Adonisis by comparison.
RIP Future PM Doug Ford. You would have kept it real.
The problem with the Liberals is our performance since 2015, second to worst performance in the OECD on a per capita basis, and mass immigration to hide falling GDP growth while basic services go unmet. Trump may have scared people, likely in order to push an energy corridor through the east to defund Russia, but in 4 years we will be back here I think as Carney still wants to maintain an immigration rate of 420k a year; into a housing and doctor shortage, to maintain the illusion of economic growth. Prefab wont do anything, since the problem isnt the cost to build a house, its all mostly land value and taxes.