1mo ago

The Trump admin is not serious about raproachment with Russia and there is no master plan

Many people seem to keep making the mistake of taking Trump's words at face value. This is partly the fault of the media, which hangs onto everything he says because he is their golden goose. Furthermore, there is the desire to keep finding some kind of logic in Trump's actions.

The problem is, we keep projecting our own logic onto the Trump admin. We think, "what would we do if we were American imperialists?" Which leads us, and many analysts (like yanis) to think about the Trump admin as if they were cavalry reinforcements arriving unexpectedly in the darkest hour of western imperialism to save it.

In reality, the Trump admin simply wants to impose unequal trade treaties on his allies and get them to spend more on weapons. His fearmongering and negging is his style of salesmanship.

The fact that the Trump admin keeps flip flopping on tariffs, resumed military aid to Ukraine, tried to pull that stunt with the "30 day ceasefire" (in ukraine) and the ceasefire in Palestine has broken down all show that the Trump administration has as much of a master plan as a shitty SV startup trying to attract VC funding.

What worries me is that the Europeans are falling for this con a second time! Trump literally did the same shit in his first term and got the euros to up their NATO spending! The fact that the Europeans can't even act in self interest or see through the tactics of a used car salesman is horrifying to see in first person. These people have nukes.

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I suspect the european elites are instrumentalising the crisis to smash their domestic welfare states on the grounds of national security
there's class war in europe too, there really is no "european interest" as such
- Well, the "european interest" I refer to is the interests of the working masses but
  I suspect the european elites are instrumentalising the crisis to smash their domestic welfare states on the grounds of national security
  This is what I suspect as well. The elites see an opportunity while the euro libs seek to prove to their authority figures what good dogs they are by betraying their class.
- I think that's exactly what's happening.

You are right about everything except "the Europeans are falling for this con a second time!".
We are vasal states and our leaders are sellouts. They know what is happening.
It has been done for centuries in Africa or wherever.
A local puppet dictator fills his pockets while his country is being plundered by colonialists.
Not a peep from the EU when the US commited a blatant act of terrorism by blowing up Nordstream and destroying our economy.
They don't feel the gas prices or unemployment, they don't need to care.
The US would like nothing more than to see the whole of Europe and Russia at war.
Economic competition destroying themselves while they benefit.
This is how the leeches took us over after WW2.
Now we're in their sphere of influence and the NATO protection racket.

Trump flubbed the "peace talks" with the DPRK so I don't know why people trust him to do it correctly with Ukraine.

Seems like they are trying to play good cop bad cop to the Democrats and sweet talk Russia into agreeing to the same empty one sided agreements that they have in the past. Even if Trump really is genuinely pro-Russia, Russophobia still runs deep in the US and his position to push for a true 180 with Russia is fragile. While it is mostly a democrat thing, it isn't like there isn't any Russophobic republicans, and while a decent amount of Americans might want to stop sending money to Ukraine, few actually have a positive view of Russia.

My reading of it is that Trump will indeed bluster and say random shit whenever given a microphone, which will be milked by all corporate newsmedia but does not necessarily translate into policy, but at least during his first presidency the stuff that actually got enacted had some kind of class interest behind it.
So building an actual brick wall was pointless, but ICE arresting immigrants at random was very useful for silencing the hyperexploited migrant workers. Same thing with withholding arms to Ukraine back then for domestic political goals, it also aligned with Trump openly trying to reduce tensions with Russia. There were many other such cases of random bullshit being used to push policy that upheld some class interests. I don't think he is smart and is playing 4D chess, but back then he must have had actual imperialist strategists trying to make do with whatever strange thing he said this week. Which, when it worked, Qanon folks would retroactively use to believe Trump was a genius.
This time though, I'm starting to believe the actual strategists are long gone and all they have is sycophants and other rich fucks disconnected from reality. Trump is loose to do whatever he wants, and so we get flip flopping tariffs, Greenland annexation and other such Yankee nonsense. He is the personification of USAmerican imperialist cultural superstructure.

I think Trump genuinely understands that the war is a sunk cost, and on top of it he knows that it's going to be an Albatross around his neck if he doesn't end it. You don't need to be a genius to realize that ending it as quickly as possible is the best course of action. Furthermore, the rapprochement with Russia will allow him to divert resources to Asia which is where the US sees a real threat now. In the grand scheme of things , Europe is just not that important anymore from the US perspective. Another aspect here is that there seems to be a belief amongst the republicans that Russia is a white christian nations and they can somehow unite over that to take on China.
Meanwhile, Europe is in a deep panic over the fact that the US will no longer be there, and they will have to deal with Russia on their own. This of course plays into Trump's hands as well, as it's necessarily going to mean a lot of military contracts going forward.
I expect that either the US and Russia work something out, which I think is most likely, or the US will simply bail on Ukraine and cut their losses. The reality is that the US is unable to keep the war going much longer materially, and unlike the Europeans, they actually acknowledge this fact.
- I think Trump genuinely understands that the war is a sunk cost, and on top of it he knows that it’s going to be an Albatross around his neck if he doesn’t end it.
  I don't think it matters what Trump's genuine beliefs are or aren't. His administration's ability to execute his plans is severely lacking, that's even assuming that his words line up with what the admin wants behind closed doors.
  Furthermore, the rapprochement with Russia will allow him to divert resources to Asia which is where the US sees a real threat now. In the grand scheme of things, Europe is just not that important anymore from the US perspective.
  I think it will prove to be much more difficult to divest from Europe than people are expecting, and that like most of Trump's gambits, his admin will half ass it and call it a day.
  The amount of American capital invested into Europe is staggering. The UK alone has more American FDI than the entirety of the south-east Asia (including China). US corporations also store 64% of their foreign assets in Europe. My point is that America cannot actually divest from Europe. It has to maintain a hard power and soft power presence in the continent to safeguard its capital. If Europe starts buying large quantities of American weapons (as Trump wants them to), it only strengthens American interest in the region.
  I expect that either the US and Russia work something out, which I think is most likely, or the US will simply bail on Ukraine and cut their losses. The reality is that the US is unable to keep the war going much longer materially, and unlike the Europeans, they actually acknowledge this fact.
  Well, the Americans and Russians will have to work something out at some point to end the war.
  
  I don’t think it matters what Trump’s genuine beliefs are or aren’t. His administration’s ability to execute his plans is severely lacking, that’s even assuming that his words line up with what the admin wants behind closed doors.
  I don't see how his plans are lacking actually. They've already established dialogue with Russia. It's going well both according to the US and Russia. Seems to me that there's a very good chance they will come to an agreement this year.
  I think it will prove to be much more difficult to divest from Europe than people are expecting, and that like most of Trump’s gambits, his admin will half ass it and call it a day.
  Ruining the relations with Europe could be part of the strategy here. He can create such a hostile environment that companies will have no choice but to divest. The tariff war certainly seems to be moving in that direction right now.
  It has to maintain a hard power and soft power presence in the continent to safeguard its capital. If Europe starts buying large quantities of American weapons (as Trump wants them to), it only strengthens American interest in the region.
  I disagree here. Whom do they need hard power against if they normalize relations with Russia exactly? Meanwhile, the soft power strategy appears to be to try and break the EU, then support right wing parties that are US aligned. This also aligns with the tariff strategy incidentally. Trump policy tends to be very blunt, and that's precisely what we're seeing here.
  Well, the Americans and Russians will have to work something out at some point to end the war.
  Right, and once that happens, the US can pull back a lot of the assets they have committed to Europe currently.

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