Do you think that a revolution will happen in the global north in the next 60 years? Or is capitalism that good to just keep kicking for hundreds of more years?
Do you think that a revolution will happen in the global north in the next 60 years? Or is capitalism that good to just keep kicking for hundreds of more years?
How should someone give an answer, what will happen in the next 60 years? Who could tell in 1925 what would happen till 1985? There was a time where it was thought that the socialist revolution would happen in Germany or Great Britain. Or how Lenin thought it will be carried out by the younger generation in the future. Things happened in another way. With such a big dynamic in the world, who can tell if a revolution will happen in the next 60 years somewhere in the global north.
I can definitely tell it won't happen in the next 60 seconds or 60 minutes after I submit this comment.
I gave a response myself but thinking better of it after reading ur comment i definitely wasn't thinking in the time frame of 60 years i guess i read that and just thought sorta near future and went on from there. But u are absolutely right who the fuck knows is definitely the best answer.
Well i dont know of any vanguard parties in any global north nations that are even a little bit successful. Their economies will have to collapse first then we will see how long it takes for some to start forming. Kinda depends if once China becomes the dominant world power they start really pushing for the world revolution. Apparently they plan to by 2050 so maybe with their support youd see some serious parties start to form. I think a lot of global north nations just wont exist anymore. Most of them have a lot of internal divisions. Theyll probably break up. Not all but some will.
So much can change between now and 2050, I would not rely on that (plus we'll all be old or dead by then)
2050 is only 25 years away. Unless ur already pretty old youll still be around.
Do you have a source on the 2050 China thing?
Only that a chinese person i was talking to mentioned it thats why i said apparently cuz i cant confirm it.
In the US the discontentment towards the status quo is certainly there, the organization and educational awareness isn't.
Do you think that there is some hope on getting the latter before total climate collapse?
They might fail or be aborted, but I actually think we might see something happen in the next 20 years tops for at least some global north countries. Living conditions are worsening quickly with no relief in sight, and unless the ruling classes manage to find some pressure valve I think it's gonna blow up soon.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were more "riots" and maybe a much larger scale CHAZ-like occupation in the US or more militant Gilets Jaunes protests in France, among other things. Sadly I don't foresee a Marxist-Leninist revolution any time soon for most of these countries (Greece maybe?), but then again nobody in 1902 expected 1905, and few people even in February 1917 expected October 1917.
I feel like there's no theory behind what kind of revolution can take place in the global north, at least none that I'm aware of. We're still going off of past revolutions which happened in times where the societies were much different and the technological level was alot lower. Curious what others think could be a possible avenue for revolution.
My thoughts are that the consciousness of people are not at the level where a true proletarian revolution can take place (at least in my country in the global north). This is mainly due to neoliberal brainwashing and the fact that people don't view China as socialist. Im seeing more pull towards neoliberalism as the material conditions degrade, partly because people don't realize there is any other option. They all think it's a tradeoff between having a good economy and letting everyone have their basic needs met.
I believe we're building towards a revolution, but whether it is successful or not remains to be seen.
Despite what you might see from weird guys on the Internet, grassroots-level Socialist politics are as active in America as they've been since the Red Scare. Big Things are Happening. In parts of the country where 20 years ago there were just Anarchists doing drugs in bars and 5 radlibs attending City councils, there are explicitly Marxist political parties with dozens of members organizing protests and events that draw hundreds of attendees. Every year interest and applications grow exponentially.
They say we're supposed to have Revolutionary Optimism, but personally, I don't really care one way or another if we win - I'm just mad, I have nothing to lose, and I want to fight.
I don’t really care one way or another if we win
Makes a lot of sense now, actually.
Do you have some sources on this because I thought that in America we were doing nothing.
I'm in an org and I'm basing my entire frame of reference on our recruitment numbers and attendance for our local events
They don't respond.
Yeah it seems that Capitalist's hubris, don't care about what people say about socialism anymore, big mistake. I hope one of these days desperation from the majority at large will try to find a way for real solutions to thier problems and Marxism will explode.
I truly do not think Americans will ever revolt in a way that overthrows capitalism. They will just descend into barbarism. The way I see it going is not much different than Nazi Germany but far less competently and they won't have to hide the atrocities. This is the way I personally see it.
The descent into fascism kicks up. The "conservatives" salivate and scream in joy as minorities of all walks get put into camps. Liberals feign outrage but also they laugh and scream at stories of "this Latino voted for Trump, now she's sad because she being raped to death in a camp." This shits all over reddit.
Mixed into the fold will be true left leaning people and LGBTQ+. Only the liberals will change their tune. They will say "guess you should have voted for Biden harder. You deserve death for not supporting the blue genocider fascist." While still laughing at the " leopards are my face" meme subreddit.
This part I assume is a definite. The next bit is some unknowns but I feel most just turns into absolute barbarism.
If the US collapses from within, I'll be just fascist infighting and devil e to barbarism. The American populace is simply too far gone, too propagandized and stupid, to do a socialism. It'll be every man for themselves. They will rip themselves apart because the only people that hates Americans more that people outside America, are other Americans. We HATE each other. They will never work together for a common good. The ones that would will be long dead in a mass grave. Those that are left will be the ones that cheered it on.
If, on the other hand, the US goes to war, and the world fights back, nukes will probably fly. So it'll probably be the end of human civilization. If by some miracle it's not, I think the US will lose a major confrontation. This is actually the only hope of socialism taking hold, assuming China takes a major part in control of the broken nation. If they don't and leave us to our own devices.... It'll just be more barbarism.
There other options I can imagine besides these but realistically, I do not see many options that involve the US populace itself, implementing a better system.
Sorry if this seems doomer, it I truly, truly do not believe the American populace will ever overthrow the current system with the intent of implementing a better one. Hate, bigotry, individualism, etc, is engrained into our existence.
Can’t say no without being called a doomer; can’t say yes without being a utopian.
Under current conditions, there is no evidence of an organized proletarian movement in the global north capable of seizing and holding a city council. Conditions could obviously change rapidly in unpredictable ways, but it seems unlikely that anything approaching “revolution” is possible within the near future in the global north without a dramatic shift in material conditions like widespread economic or climate collapse that weakens the imperial state and proletarianizes the imperial labor aristocracy. Every currently existing “communist“ party that I know of in the global north with significant numbers (lol) is generally still deeply chauvinistic and ideologically opposed to any revolutionary action that involves violence (lol). If we’re saying that revolution is possible in the near term, but acknowledging that it would require fundamentally different material conditions that we can’t predict leading to the formation of new parties and movements that don’t currently exist, then it seems premature to speculate about what specifically that’s going to look like or when it’s going to happen.
The imperial core countries will be the last to have a revolutionion.
I hope so. Natives, LGBTQ, BIPOC, will unite against White Supremacy. AfD, Reform, GOP, Conservatives of Canada will fail fast.
that's what happened in mexico and why amlo and sheinbaum are in charge... or at least until the americans start bombing and invading to destablize and foment regime change ... again.
I wonder if they will choose socialism though and not just social democracy
Speaking of uniting. That's something I was interested by like smack dab in the beginning of 2022, but then war in Ukraine flared up and my attention was consumed by the resulting shitstorm ever since. Actually, observing US' culture wars did a lot to push me towards class consciousness.
Is that realistic in the US? Because what limited info I can get from the Internet suggests that libs greatly succeded in atomising the hell out of workers in the US into self-segregating minority communities and separating them from the majority of white workers with superstructure-focused euroleft brainrot.
I'm genuinely curious, thanks in advance for your perspectives.
P. S. If someone can write a post about this, that would be even more awesome.
I don't think civilization has hundreds of years left. Between climate change and nuclear proliferation, if we don't destroy capitalism soon it is going to destroy us. It's do or die.
Sure, but I don't think that most people know this. I honestly don't think that most people know about socialism and communism.
Just let me know when shooting fascist is legalised again, that would be a good start. The whole house of cards will come tumbling down maybe 20 or so years.
The exact opposite will happen - fascists will be deputized to shoot us. It will never be legal for us to shoot back.
60 years from now is 2085. That's loads of time. 60 years ago was 1965, and look how much has happened between then and now.
Multiply that by the number of states in the Global North, all of them on their own path. That's a huge possibility space.
The west will in the near term likely descend into barbarism, open reaction, what fascism was in the 20th century Europe. (That or it'll pull off some sort of miraculous crushing of the global south and buying capitalism breathing room for another 40 years)
So I think we could see a revolution the next 20 years, I just don't think it'll be a socialist one.
I also don't discount the real possibility that the bourgeoisie in the west try to take their ball and go home, try and do dark enlightenment, neo-feudalism, and just build a high fence around it. What that actually ends up looking like in practice I wouldn't know but I think it's truly possible they find a way to keep the situation miserable but stable for another hundred years with the current power structure mostly the same. Climate change is certainly set to come in on the side of the US. Technology like AI and more specifically robotics dangles the promise of automation that's good enough to serve as a control mechanism on the population, total information control, total surveillance, etc from which the ultimate breaking free would likely only come about from the decay of such systems out of neglect and greed.
I certainly HOPE there is a revolution, a Marxist one in the global north in the next 60 years. I'd like to see that before I die, I'd like for it to come sooner than that as in 60 years I have a pretty good chance of being dead of natural causes.
But we must remember how hard it is to predict history. Asked 100 years ago socialists in our place would have said Germany or Britain, etc would probably experience a revolution in their lifetime and they were wrong. Lenin thought he'd never live to see the revolution and he was wrong about that. We must however take from the past century how adaptable capitalism is. They have our playbook, they have experience correcting for, adjusting to many of their problems that give rise to revolutionary potential and they have a century of anti-communism propaganda messaging as well as 30 years of end of history messaging.
It seems unknowable, too many variables. It really hinges on can China become a communist super-power, avoid being crushed by the west, avoid being nuked by the west, avoid being strangled and can it exert power including trade and friendship better than the west can extend neo-colonialism, color revolutions, fomented extremism and terrorism/separatism to the rest of the world? If it can, if the west's grasp on the rest of the world slips then short of the west deciding to use nuclear weapons and destroy human civilization then sooner or later I think we'll have won. I think we'll know the results of this within 10 years by 2035 we'll see the fruits of the west's plans or China's plans.
The west is trying delaying actions because climate change is coming in on their side so that's a big unknown, that could really hit China hard regardless of all their efforts and become a real drain while the US is almost certain to weather that new reality among the best of all nations.
Wait, how come the USA will be less hit than China in the future due to climate change?
Most of northern China, is low lying flat lands. A rise in sea levels of 50 feet will see most of the Central Valley plains region being completely submerged. The increase of temperature that would make the American southwest uninhabitable applies to pretty much everywhere south of the Yangtze. Add on to the rise of climate refugees as well.
The US has an exceptionally good position in terms of geography basically.
Two oceans, tons of very fertile land, enough of it nothernly that it will still be viable with work under the conditions of climate change. That and the country is big enough, and spans enough climates that though parts of it like the southwest and parts of the south will become brutal and deadly in summer, there's still huge amounts of it for the amount of people that live within the borders far north of that in safer areas. Add on no real desertification problems, fairly plentiful water from rivers replenished by snowpacks (yes it's not enough for all the capitalist greed but it's still a lot). And many other factors and I've read (not a climate expert) in multiple places that the US is kind of uniquely well situated to suffer among the least from climate change (more landmass immune to natural disasters brought on by it, lower risk of famine or crop failure sufficient to truly cause mass starvation or want, plentiful fresh water, plentiful fertile top-soil, and fewer climate refugees and more easily controlled thanks to only the southern Mexican border being relevant).
China by contrast even without climate change has large amounts of desert, not as much high quality fertile soil areas with water access compared to the amount in the US (they're a big importer of food from the US while the US is a huge food exporter to China and many other places). They're in a latitude that's closer to the equator and so more vulnerable to extreme heat in summers through most of their land. Add on the fact that large parts of China given their location are more vulnerable to high humidity and the danger of regions there hitting wet bulb temperature is higher than in most of the US outside of Louisiana and the rest of the immediate gulf area plus Florida. They're combating desertification but it is still something they have to contend with, that is a large amount of their land is part of or borders a desert, the regions that don't which are more amenable to growing are more concentrated by the sea so more vulnerable to extreme storms, typhoons, flooding events, and the aforementioned wet bulb.
We should remember that there wasn't even a socialist party in Russia till 1898. That's 19 years before the revolution and that party had a major split in 1903 that created the Bolshevik party. Lenin, Stalin, and Trotsky were just the shit posters of their time. There were lots of other voices and ideas floating around. I'm sure many people condemned them for not being grounded in the real world the same way some of todays leftists get called "terminally online."
Say Trump declared an end to term limits and imprisoned opposition in few states. Then invaded Canada and Mexico while setting up concentration camps. Russia and China back the Mexicans (lets face it canada would probably buckle in weeks) Americans start getting conscripted. War starts getting protracted, Trump fires generals for incompetence or because they are too competent and he is getting paranoid of them. The replacement generals see the insanity and decide they need to act to end the meaningless war and trump. So you get a coup maybe the socialists take over maybe you get a junta. Junta is followed by elections at some point, maybe that cycle repeats a few times and maybe when its over its socialist.
This could all happen in the space 20 years. I wont say "its likely" but it isn't without precedent.
Writerism shakes fist
Nothing was ever achieved by people writing and sharing political theory and analysis of current material conditions.
And people definitely shouldn't read what is to be done.
i think some stuff could happen in europe, but the eu would be a massive obstacle. As for amerikkka not really unless amerikkkan imperialist fumble worst than they ever have i dont see it. But are communist revolutions even a thing these days all the socialist or leftist governments that came to power in the last 40 odd years have come about because of a combination of protests, voting and, just general civil unrest I mean when was the last non color revolution its been a minute. Feels like the age of revolution is past and we are in the age of coups and riots.
Good point. Do we need to organize to build a massive party over decades with underground newspapers and walking thousands of miles? Or will things just go viral enough one day after the capitalist governments have failed hard enough? Technology levels the playing field, but of course we need to do all we can to come out on top.
Revolutions at their time are always called coups, riots, insurgencies as well. Although there don't seem to be any successful socialist revolutions there have been some things that can will possibly be understood by history as "national liberation revolutions" in the Sahel states, for example. Haiti is ongoing its own struggle that could end in nothing, but could also be termed a revolution by history books.
It is very easy to feel like it's never going to happen.
One of the biggest reasons FDR implemented the New Deal, was because there were groups advocating for communism and socialism in the US and it was not a far fetched prospect.
https://jacobin.com/2019/10/highlander-folk-school-socialist-party-new-deal
The more we organize and unionize, the more it's possible!
It will happen in 2026. But it will be a fascist revolution
Doubt any type of revolution will happen. As long as people are just comfortable enough to survive, they'll gladly enjoy a worse quality of life, especially if they're told that other countries have it worse
No type of revolution? Do not underestimate the transformation of quantity into quality. Every week seems to be a decade recently. Just because some people are comfortable-ish now doesn’t mean that any one of the massive crises we are constantly on the brink of will spill over enough to cause more radical shifts.
:inshallah:
The realist in me says nothing particularly special will happen, shit will just continue to get worse then by the time people do start waking up climate change destroys everything anyway. Like, its nice to think people will magically wake up but the truth is that living in the old way is still possible and will continue to be possible for a while. Revolution only happens when such a lifestyle is no longer tenable. A new war will always be on the horizon to break up capital when needed, a new crisis that will make people put off plans is always just around the corner. Revolution comes when it forces upon those who have no interest being involved in politics because they no longer have a choice to ignore things. I don't mean this as a call to surrender or anything, keep up the good fight, keep trying to improve things and organize and educate, but its gonna take some amazing luck to actually turn this around in time to actually save our planet and we communists aren't known for our fantastic luck.
Foundations laid today will be vital for the ripening of the movement tomorrow.
Yes, no
The only thing that's set in stone is the past and that's only because it has already happened. Predictions can be useful if applied alongside action (ex: "the weather prediction says it will rain on Thursday, so I will go the baseball game on Tuesday instead"). Without the action, they mean little. Things can reach a tipping point in one area or another, unforeseen crises can arise, and throughout it all, there are multiple factions vying for power, whether for selfish reasons, such as fascism, or humanitarian ones, such as anti-imperialism, decolonization, and liberation of the working class. Aid in the humanitarian struggle where you can; that's where dire predictions are transformed into optimistic ones.