3mo ago

Did DeepSeek R1 just pop nvidias bubble?

Changed title because no need for youtube clickbait here

8 comments

I still think this isn't connected to any facts. It's just some speculation bubble doing weird things. We've been improving AI models for the better part of the last two years. Until now that's been increasing the bubble. Now literally the same thing happens and they're all selling their Nvidia stock... Wtf!?... And by the way, we're talking about a Chinese company here. As such they're known to add unsubstanciated claims about how the political restriction on AI chips doesn't really affect them. They've also done that before. It might not even be true.
- NVIDIA is tanking because everyone is now looking at them and thinking "hey maybe ai doesn't need warehouses full of graphics cards after all". NVIDIA sells less product => their profits go down => their stock's perceived value goes down.
  
  Sure, but we had the same thing with Alpaca, Llama2, Llama3, 3.2, Mistral, Phi... They're all getting smaller and/or more intelligent since a year ago (and more) when models at small size started to compete with ChatGPT, or at least claim to do so... If that's it... Shouldn't it have happened like a year ago? We definitely had those graphs back then, when some Llama or Mistral outperformed the current ChatGPT of the time in some benchmarks... I think precedent for that headline "... outperforms ChatGPT" or "... is better than ..." is Llama2 70B in summer 2023. And claiming that has been a pretty constant thing since then.
  Edit: Computerphile covered Deepseek: https://youtu.be/gY4Z-9QlZ64
  But I think I get it. If people really thought OpenAI was going to give trillions of dollars to Nvidia for hardware, and now there is some competition and more efficient AI available... That might come as a reality check. I just think the prospect of it all is a bit funny. AI is a big bubble especially since everyone thinks it's going to make progress and big advances... And now it does... And stock price drops... That's just silly. IMO. And I'd bet now is a good time to buy some stocks, since the better AI gets, the more it gets applied.)

So, did it?
- Hard to tell at this stage but models may get a hell of a lot bigger if the hardware required to train them is much smaller or it may plateau for a while while everyone else works on training their stuff using significantly less power and hardware

The massive upside to Deepseek R1 being released is that these new reasoning capabilities will increase demand for inference devices. I would remain bullish!

8 comments