2y ago

Looks like the "coup" is over

https://tass.ru/politika/18110833

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I'm certainly not saying Lukashenko isn't in allegiance with the Kremlin, however it's true to say that the Kremlin didn't negotiate down the coup. Lukashenko did.
Also it's most likely these terms were somewhat favourable to Wagner and don't involve its complete integration into Russia's military and directly under MoD control.
- I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make here to be honest. Kremlin found a way to resolve the situation without bloodshed, and where Prigozhin was removed from wagner while preserving wagner as an effective organization. Wagner is in fact now signing contracts with the MoD, so yes it is directly under the control of the MoD going forward. Basically, Russia managed to resolve the situation in the best way possible.
  
  I'll distill it down for you:
  The Kremlin didn't find a way to resolve the situation, Lukashenko brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin. Without Lukashenko's intervention the Kremlin had no way of backing down. Lukashenko is an ally of the Kremlin, but he is not the Kremlin, and the Kremlin had already taken the position of harsh punishment.
  I don't think your take is accurate. Wagner isn't directly under the control of MoD, rather some of Wagner's troops are being given the option of joining/signing contracts. In fact, it's only the ones who did not take part that get this option.
  The implication is that the rest of Prigozhin's troops, perhaps his most loyal and most effective, might be going with him to Belarus.
  The best way possible would have been to not have the insurrection to begin with. Ideally, by properly supplying troops as promised.
  
  If that's what you genuinely believe then what else is there to tell you. I also love how you just made up a whole bunch of stuff like Prigozhin's troops going to Belarus. You could totally get a job at one of US propaganda rags writing nonsense all day.
  
  If that’s what you genuinely believe then what else is there to tell you.
  Got to love how ambiguous this statement is. Are you saying it wouldn't have been better to not have an insurrection in the first place?
  I also love how you just made up a whole bunch of stuff like Prigozhin’s troops going to Belarus.
  I'm not making things up, I'm saying there is an implication that Prigozhin's most loyal troops, at least some of the 5,000-8,000 people who were involved in the march, might be going with him to Belarus. I can't imagine they'll want to stay in Russia any more than Prigozhin after this. They won't be allowed to work with the MoD, but they've been given protection under the deal and they have to go somewhere. Following Prigozhin to Belarus seems most likely.
  It's certainly less far fetched than you saying that all of Wagner will be integrated into the MoD, which directly contradicts Dmitry Peskov's statement outlining the deal. Only some of Wagner will be given the opportunity to sign contracts. Up to 20,000 will have the opportunity, but not all will sign.
  >PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny - and whole units did not - will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov said.
  
  You are literally making things up here. There is zero actual evidence to support your claim that any wagner troops are following Prigozhin anywhere. You just pulled this out of your ass based what you can and can't imagine, and trying to sell that as some fact here.
  Meanwhile, read the link you yourself posted till you understand what it says.
  
  I didn't present anything as fact, you're the one distorting things here. I simply pointed out that many thousands of Wagner troops won't be a part of the Russian military anymore, and suggested that the most likely thing they will do is continue following their current leader.
  It seems like a recurring tactic of yours is to deflect people to other things, without actually arguing a single specific point yourself.
  
  There is nothing likely about that statement. The fact that you believe an absurdity does not make it likely. The facts don't support your assertions. And I don't need to keep justifying myself to you here. The only recurring tactic here is you confidently asserting nonsensical things and then acting like they're obviously true.
  
  What any reasonable person would do is suggest an alternative likelihood. What will happen to the 5,000+ Wagner troops that the MoD won't allow to sign contracts?
  
  If the 5,000 troops aren't going to be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD then they obviously become civilians. One has to be living in an alternate reality to think that they're just going to follow Prigozhin around like some praetorian guard. The fact that you even consider this to be a likely scenario shows that you have absolutely no understanding of the situation in Russia.
  
  If the 5,000 troops aren’t going to be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD then they obviously become civilians.
  Most of these troops were part of the Storm-Z forces, people who were taken out of prison and granted freedom in exchange for service.
  It's about as likely as Prigozhin making it safely to Belarus. One way or another, many of Prigozhin's troops are probably going to follow him.
- Luka was almost certainly acting on behalf of the Kremlin because for image purposes the Kremlin could not be seen to be the ones making the offer of leniency to traitors, they needed to be the bad cop to Lukashenko's good cop. In the interest of avoiding a dangerous escalation Luka was used as an ostensible (but not really) "third party" to give the leaders of the mutiny who had backed themselves into a corner a way to still get out of this with their lives so that they wouldn't fight to the death and take valuable rank and file soldiers with them.
  We don't know what the terms were exactly, we'll have to wait and see, but from what has been openly stated at least there is no indication that any of the demands of the mutineers were conceded to, personnel changes were not even discussed (imo there was never a snowball's chance in hell of the government agreeing to that, can you imagine how bad it would be for discipline to allow some uppity mercs to dictate who the commanders of the armed forces are? it would be an enormous violation of the chain of command!), and the integration of Wagner into the official armed forces has only accelerated.
  On the whole i think this was unavoidable at some point because the contradiction of giving so much power and prominence to a mercenary group was always going to create conflict, but the way it was handled was just about the optimal way to do it and Russia will come out of this stronger. There will be some who will say that Russia should have foreseen this and not allowed it to come this far in the first place, and maybe that is true, but maybe it was also good it happened the way it did because it offers an opportunity for a more thorough cleanse and a more decisive break with previous policy toward PMCs.
  More consolidation under the official state power structures is a good thing for when communists take over again. Mercenaries with too much influence and autonomy would be a nasty problem to deal with. And at the very least the image of Wagner and especially that of certain personalities involved with it is irreversibly tarnished in the eyes of the Russian public, and again i can't say that that is bad, they were getting too full of themselves and starting to have a negative morale impact by denigrating the performance of the regular armed forces without whom they could never have even operated the way they did to begin with.
  
  and the integration of Wagner into the official armed forces has only accelerated.
  The thing is, only those that did not take part in the march are being given the option of signing contracts with the MoD. That means there are significantly fewer Wagner troops available for Russia - the rest will presumably be going to Belarus with Prigozhin. Also, it sounds like they're still going to be PMCs, just with different contracts.

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