2y ago

Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘not meeting expectations,’ Western officials tell CNN

edition.cnn.com Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive 'not meeting expectations,' Western officials tell CNN | CNN Politics

In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

World News @beehaw.org

Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive 'not meeting expectations,' Western officials tell CNN

edition.cnn.com /2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

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The imperial managers are looking for a way out, so they're slowly allowing mainstream media to report some semblance of the truth, namely that Ukraine has absolutely no chance without participating in peace negotiations in good faith.

Ukraine is doing great. I know Russia is a meme, but they do have far more resources and man power. These guys are working with tech they just got trained on. Russia is well fortified. Keep in mind, the counter offensive is still developing. Often things are said publicly to skew the other side.
- Yeah. this is still in the "probing" and "shaping" phase, the Ukrainians are launching attacks to see which bits of the front are softest and to force the Russians to commit their reserves so that when a breakthrough happens they have fewer options to respond with.
  Just today the big news was about Ukraine blowing up a vital bridge the Russians need for resupplying their lines, for example. And yesterday I was reading an interesting analysis about how the Ukrainians might actually be able to attack across the former Kakhovka reservoir now that the Russians blew up the dam and drained it. Even if they don't do that it might make sense for them to look like they're considering it so that the Russians have yet more front lines they need to reinforce.
  People have been spoiled by reading history books in which they can take in a summary of a years-long war in a paragraph or two, or by Desert Storm which was rather a different sort of war than this one. This offensive could take months, and it doesn't have to have a clear "beginning" and "end" moment where one side captures a flag and declares victory over the other.
  
  Could you link a source on those Ukranian wins you mention? I'm interested to read on those.

What nonsense is this? They are doing a great job. Assaulting heavily fortified positions is extremely hard, whoever thinks Ukraine is not fast enough probably knows nothing about shit. Just look at the Allies offensives in Europe during WW2, especially the beach landings. It took months to break the lines of defense.

Although disappointing, not entirely unexpected. Assaulting and defending are two different things and without air or artillery superiority, the assault phase is even more difficult. So these lads are pressing in on well prepared defensive lines without a ton of battle space preparation. Hopefully, they can perform well enough, and violently enough to overcome the typical 3:1 requirement for beaching and destroying fortified positions.

Interesting. With how poorly Russia has done so far, I think the expectation was for the counter offense to be fast and severe. I wonder if their training is better suited to holding land, if they were holding back their more competent troops from the front line, or if the soldiers are more invested in their defense than the offense.
- That may have been the case in meme-circles, but anyone looking at the war objectively knew it was going to be slower. The Kharkiv counteroffensive only was so brutally effective, because the russian defensive lines were so weak and they didn't have any secodary defensive lines to fall back on. Meaning that once the defense was breached, Ukrainian Humvees could just keep driving and pursiung fleeing russians.
  Kherson had a better defense setup, but with the bridges over the Dnipro cut, russia couldn't supply them.
  Now, russia had time to create layered defensives and their logistics are harder to cut. The push towards the south is the most difficult offensive Ukraine has undertaken so far, so it's only logical for it to take the longest.
  There is also a difference in tactics: While russia employs zerg rushes of convicts and mobilized into fortified Ukrainian positions, Ukraine tries to achieve local supperiorities of firepower and taking russian positions into pockets. That lowers your own casualties, but makes offensive operations more difficult.
- Russia did a shit tonne of work putting in mines, trenches, and structures everywhere. They might not fight for shit, but they can dig holes and place dragon teeth. Doesn’t really require much advanced thought or tech.
- I think the expectation was for the counter offense to be fast and severe.
  Only if you've been chugging western propaganda. It was pretty clear beforehand, and has been very clear since it "started".

They should try advance through minefields as vast as an ocean and then criticize.
- It's understandably difficult when the Ukrainians fail to make gains, but it's Russian incompetence when they do it?

Sad for Ukraine. I wonder whether we're back to WWI with long, static defensive lines and grinding, awful, slow advances.
- It's also a factor of Russia not competently executing the initial invasion and got themselves bogged down. Similar to the Germans in WW1 on the western front, they got bogged down before they could take their key objectives, but the eastern front remained mostly mobile during the war because of the vast size of the front, and they eventually won on that front. Because you either win by our maneuvering your enemy an encircling them, or attriting the hell out of them till they have nothing left, and I think the pendulum has swung again towards a defensive advantage, especially with UAVs and remote mine laying systems, and precision artillery munitions.
  It's a big part of why US doctrine is so focused on quick fast and overwhelming assaults and a strike first mentality. Even in Desert Storm they were severely worried about being bogged down by the Iraqi Army and starting a prolonged conflict with massive American losses. So it was imperative to flank the Iraqi Army from the western desert by the French Armored Corps.
  
  We now know that Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement back in March, and Russia pulled back as a show of good faith. Then the west told Ukraine that the agreement was unacceptable and that's how we got where we are today.

Who would have thought! I totally didn't see this coming! I'm absolutely not being sarcastic!

Tl;dr: Not many Ukrainians want to push into a longer war in Russia, they just want to get the fuck back to "normal" and rebuild and foritfy their nation.
I mean I understand western powers giving billions, expecting a massive push, but just hear me out...these people are fighting for their home. They don't want to push into Russia and kill Russians or kill innocent people, their lives have been ruined already. War crimes have been committed against Ukraine, massive amounts of explosives detonated over entire cities. Land mines cover hundreds of miles by now, and Russia made sure to do as much damage as possible, long lasting damage. People will work hard and push hard, when they are in survival mode, and defending their lands is def something they are very righteously doing. Expecting them to counter attack and become the very thing they have rallied against, come on....the Western powers that "give" Aid, are going to want to make money, and a prolonged war with billions in sales of weapons, is of course what they want.
Ukraine just wants to rebuild, fortify and make sure this shit never happens again, what they don't want, is to go into Russia and land grab for power. It is no mystery why the counter offensive just doesn't have the same ferocity.
- The counter offensive isn't into Russia, it's them trying to get back their territory which was occupied last February. Where a lot of Ukrainians currently have family members, and where we know for a fact torture of dissenters and kidnapping of children is taking place.
  IIRC almost all polls show strong support from Ukrainians to take all their land back.
  
  It's also to get back their territory which was occupied in 2014. I think XymerianMonk is subtly implying that that territory is "Russian" now, which is pretty disgusting if so. Russia doesn't get to seize and annex territory from its neighbours and then cry about being "invaded" when those neighbours try to take it back.
- How can such an ignorant comment even be upvoted?
  They’re pushing into Ukraine still, this is a push to take back their land from Russia not a fucking march to Moscow.

Maybe redditors will stop cheering for other people to be sent to die. But probably not.
- I would really rather that people stop dying. But that choice is entirely up to the Russians, who are the ones who started and are continuing to pursue this invasion.
  They could just go home and this would all be over. This is on them.
  
  Amazing deflection of responsibility. Why are you in favor of forcing people to die for your cause? Go fight yourself.
  Then there's the denying of reality. The Russians aren't going to go away, even if you send in more conscripts. So the plan is what exactly? Just send in more guys (not you of course) until there's no-one left?
  And you also pull the old kindergarten move of "they started it", when you know damn well this shit has been brewing for a while. Heck, even if this were true, maybe some deescalation would be wise? But no matter, the other guys are 100% at fault for sure and so your hands are clean.
- I for one really hope more Russians can peacefully surrender, and that Putin's regime ceases it bloody campaign against people's liberties foreign and domestic.
  
  I also hope that western nations will welcome russian people that do not wish to fight (as long as they behave that is). Not only will it send the signal that the west is not against russia itself, only against the regime, it will also rob russia of manpower.

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