Latest polling: Trump, Harris statistically tied.
Latest polling: Trump, Harris statistically tied.
41 comments
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Tied. With a fascist, ranting scumbag. Sometimes I hate this country.
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This would be the blowout of the century if people used their brains before voting
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A significant amount of voters vote based on vibe instead of policy. Politics is just boring and they want to be entertained. Those are the "good" ones, as the rest of them don't vote at all.
Every single person in either of those two groups are so fucking pathetic and it hurts us all. They don't deserve to live in this country if they can't be bothered to do their duty as a citizen.
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Pennsylvania (R+ 2.4), Michigan (R+1.2), Georgia (R+3.1), Wisconsin (R+1.1) and Nevada (R+2.2) remain in the margin of error or statistically tied, but with a Republican advantage, according to his Sept. 6 analysis.
This is quite misleading. Harris is slightly ahead in all of those states.
Silver explicitly cautioned readers not to misinterpret those numbers:
Let me emphasize again, because we’re now firmly in silly season of the campaign where bad-faith actors can dominate the discussion, that these figures reflect the lean of each state relative to the national numbers — and not the raw projections. For instance, our polling averages still have Harris slightly ahead in Wisconsin, but we show it as GOP-leaning relative to the rest of the country
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Yeah, going off the polling averages in each state, Harris is currently leading in most of the swing states, with Georgia and North Carolina* being dead even.
North Carolina is the only one that changes based on the inclusion or exclusion of third party candidates. Since third party candidates will be on the ballot, including Kennedy, I'm using that data instead of the slight lead for Trump that the head to head polls have.
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Wait till you see the shenanigans the GOP pull in Georgia if it's swinging blue... It'll be shameless - I guarantee it.
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- Polls haven't been accurate for years and Silver takes and massages them to come up with his predictions. Always make sure you VOTE, no matter what any polls or pundits are saying.
- The Center Square is a conservative publication. Nate Silver currently works for Polymarket, an online betting company funded by Peter Thiel and crypto bros. So it's to both of their advantages to paint a picture that looks better for Trump. Remember, those who want to get trump in power need magats to believe that trump will surely win and that if he doesn't, it can only because the election was rigged by evil democrats. That way they give cover for corrupt red state election boards to refuse to certify their votes and red state legislatures to challenge results in the courts, force recounts and delays, certify and send invalid electors next January, and have a cohort of people ready and willing to fight or be violent if needed.
- Yes, the election is close, so make sure you VOTE no matter how optimistic or pessimistic you may feel about all this and no matter what state you live in, no matter whether it's a red, blue, or swing state. The margins need to be as large as possible in every state and the popular vote margin also as huge as possible so there is no question of the will of the people.
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why tied...? i know that Harris and the Democratic Party are not an ideal choice, but looking at your situation from Europe, i can not understand the popularity of Trump.
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As an American, i can't understand it either. The only thing i can posit is that there are a lot of people that seem to enjoy being in their social media bubbles. It's a cult thing.
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a mix of russian disinfo, right wing bigotry, desperate for power and control
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Some people see his politics as a personal benefit, some filled with hate, some want a king. Basically, there are just a lot of shitbags in society.
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Looking at the European situation from outside is also baffling, with putinite parties on the rise by whipping up fears over migration. Similarities with the USA situation easy to find
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yeah, sadly we only have a handful of somewhat "useful" politicians too
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Absolutely. And you can tell they try the US talking points, too. A while back a Swiss politician tweeted something about abortion and got zero traction, but it was very clear where that came from when it's never been a topic here. Sounds like a conspiracy, but if you put it in context with the recent FBI revelations it's not exactly far-fetched.
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It's literally this from anywhere but America
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Really? A European doesn't understand this? You guys invented charismatic populist psychopaths.
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you should learn from our mistakes then
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Somebody's never heard of Xerxes. Europe, like all things invented in Europe, simply stole the idea from Asia and labeled it as European.
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Rock Flag and Eagle
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Trump rising in the polls is making my stomach churn. Having a bit of hope was nice while it lasted, I guess.
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Don't freak out. It's a single poll, and given trends, it looks like an outlier.
And remember that polling is still pretty fucked right now.
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That's what push polls are for, to inflate the numbers for their own side while discouraging the opposing side.
And even those polls which aren't intended to skew the results are going to be shifted to meet the expectations of the pollster as they try to adjust the data to reflect what they think is a representative sample of likely voters.
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Don't bother looking at polls. Go out and vote.
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I am extremely skeptical about this article's conclusions. It doesn't help that it starts out by bashing Harris and ignoring all the issues Trump has run into. Seriously, the news has been mostly pretty bad for Trump lately, there isn't a lot of reason to expect his numbers to be improving.
When looking across all polls and breaking them down by state, the general trend has been either chaotic swings from one poll to another, or a steady shift from Trump to Harris. Arizona is pretty much the only swing state that has shown a clear move towards Trump. Hell, even Texas and Florida are steadily shifting away from Trump. There's a reason why the Trump campaign has narrowed their focus and given up on several states they thought they could flip.
If anything, I would expect the main reasons for a shift to Trump would be Kennedy being removed from polls (even in states where he will still be on the ballot) and just a general tightening of the race as undecided voters choose either candidate.
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Reminder: the most effective strategy at this point in the race is to make plans for voting with other Democrats. Get all the demonrats you know to plan and let's Vote-Kill these rubes.
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Doesn't even have to be Democrats, if you just convince a random group of people to vote, statistically more of them will vote for Harris
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Didn't think of it that way, but thats because I work with all Rubes and have been repeating Trump's lines about not voting to them in an effort to get them not to vote.
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Get all the demonrats you know to plan
demoncrats
hmmm
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Don't let one singular poll discourage you. Instead use it to motivate action. Singular polls bounce around with statistical noise. This is still a very winnable fight
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SO FUCKING GODDAMN PATHETIC
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Remember democrats need a bit of a lead since they are more likely to be disenfranchised or can't/won't vote. Young people especially college kids are hard to pin down since areas make it difficult for them to vote because home address
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The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
Let's see what it looks like now:
AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/MN - Harris +5, +7, +11
So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.
GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.
MI I'm tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it's still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.
WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.
Plot that on the map and we get:
Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.
Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she's done.
She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.
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A large portion of the shift towards Trump comes from two extremely unreliable sources Trafalgar Group, a republican funded polling agency, and Patriot Polling, which is only measuring registered voters not likely voters, and which doesn't provide any additional details like demographic data (despite adjusting the numbers to account for demographics).
And the Arizona polls you cite are all from the same source. It's actually kind of weird that they're the outlier with the tie, because they're sponsored by a pro-trump group.
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this country is fucked.
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41 comments