5mo ago

Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

www.newsweek.com Donald Trump does not get post-shooting poll boost

A new poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point ahead of November's election.

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

www.newsweek.com /donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680

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politics @lemmy.world

Donald Trump does not get post-shooting poll boost

www.newsweek.com /donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680

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119 comments

As much as I want this to be true (well I'd rather him be losing in all polls), this is disinformation at this moment.
The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)
Under "In this tracker"
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, I don't see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
- Maybe impartial information more than disinformation. It's still likely the responses from late Saturday and Sunday would have impacted the percentage by at least 1 or 2 points. The fact it stayed the same hopefully means that at best it simply prevented Biden from taking the lead.
  
  Maybe, but considering this information is highlighted in the poll's key points (immediately following and under the same point used for the title) doesn't look good. It means that Newsweek is either doing a poor job at covering this (they didn't even provide a direct link to the poll), or they are intentionally leaving out key details.
  It's also possible that they are only looking at a subset of the data that only focuses on people that were questioned the day after the event, but without a pro+ subscription I can't tell if seperating out that group is even possible (if it even lists out which day a person was questioned) and that's ignoring the impact on the reliability of those numbers given a largely reduced dataset.
  Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis
  In the end, I'm waiting to see what the polls look like in battleground states to see how this event has really affected the situation.
- We may never get an accurate poll post-assassination because the RNC quickly followed.
- Half of the poll period was in the middle of the news cycle. You'd expect to see at least some movement.

There are those who see through Trump's bullshit and those who don't. And those who see through it won't have their views changed by this event.
We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were turned. He wouldn't have condemned the violence. He would have made evasive and vague statements suggesting that the violence should continue. We know that because he has done it before. Many times. As a matter of fact he did call for political violence against Hillary in 2016 when he suggested that "the second amendment people should do something about it".
We are not fooled. We might not approve of political violence. But no amount of playing the victim is doing to make us forget that he is still a scumbag. We will vote him out.
- There are those who see through Trump’s bullshit and those who don’t.
  What has baffled me for the past eight years is how many people, since day one, have not observed him for who he really is. I still can not comprehend how he was elected president and is again the nominee for the Republican Party.
  He has zero redeeming qualities. By all measures, he has the record of being the worst president in modern times. But most people don't actually care about legislation or politics or this country - they only care about themselves and the "vibe" they get from someone.
  We live in a world where verifiable lies are shaping our reality. The people who claim to be patriots are traitors to the intent of this nation. I just do not understand how the brains of some people veil them from what's being presented directly in front of them. Moreover, I have no idea how this doesn't keep getting worse.
  
  I have a friend who is obsessed with learning about cults, and he recently said that Trump's speeches sound exactly like Jim Jones.
  The way it works is that you say something kinda crazy and lose maybe 10% of your followers. Now you know what you can get away with with the other 90%. Repeat this until you get the 30-50% of people that will eat up anything you say (or won't leave due to sunk cost fallacy/can't admit that they were wrong), and you have Trump's base.
  These are people who have either drunk the Flavor-Aid, love him because he says the things they're afraid to say out loud, or are just too deep now and can't get out.
  
  He was elected because Democrats thought they could exploit his lack of support to force Clinton on everyone. They were wrong.
  Trump's victory is more about Democratic strategic failure than anything else, they gave him the election.
  
  He has a cult of personality. They (the GOP) don't seem to like him either based on how many of them denounced him at various points over the past 8 years, but they know he's their best chance of winning, so they made him the candidate. They don't care who the candidate is, as long as it's one of their people.
- We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were switched. He wouldn't have condemned the violence.
  “People that get shot are losers!”
  Trump in an alternate timeline
- The polls are also affected by project 2025 news, which can reduce the effectiveness of a post assassination boost.
- It's this.

I think this confirms what we kind of already know; Trump has maxed out his support, and it's not much. Turnout is key for Democrats.
- Not just key, but absolutely critical. Every single maga voter is going to turn out, and gerrymandering gives them a huge advantage as will the corrupt scotus. There will also be voter and voting fraud in favour of maga because if they win it doesn't matter. There will also be evidence found of democrat voting fraud, so that they can claim both sides are the same.
  The only thing that will win this for the dems is overcoming apathy and voting in utterly overwhelming numbers, particularly in swing states.

If Trump loses the election he got shot for nothing and will have the worlds most hilarious breakdown. Make it so.
- I hope he has a breakdown and it's public when he loses again.
- "Frankly, we won this election" 😂

I don’t pity fascists; he’s got my full disapproval still, come November it’s Vote Blue time!

Can we just take a step back and admire how completely bizarre this title sounds out of context?
- Ikr, If someone woke up from a coma today, this headline without context looks like the Trump Fifth Avenue quote actually happened.
  I swear they could be better with these headlines.
  
  Booster for trump shot doesn’t come to fruition.

That's how shitty of a person he is. Every other terrible person got a boost from almost dying.

People are in their trenches. Nothing is going to change that. It's not like a lot of Trump voters, if any, would all of a sudden vote for Joe Biden if some ass had tried to kill him.

The shooting changed no ones votes yet it completely demoralized the Dems to the point that their leadership think its over. The reason is they don't know what to campaign on anymore. They're too scared to run a negative campaign anymore. But they are also incapable of running any sort of positive campaign.

That he get's ~45%, how sad.

If the margin of error is of 2 points, you can't say that trump is leading, because both are statistically tied. I hate biased journalism.
- Because the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, a Democratic presidential candidate has to be several points ahead in a national poll to even think about being level, in terms of electoral votes, which are the only things that really count in a presidential race.
- I'd like this to be true, but remember that these national polls are not helpful to predict the electoral college. Unfortunately, Trump comfortably leads in many must-win states for Biden. Polls are usually wrong, but it's the best information we've got.
- Or he could be leading by 4 points.
  Edit: 3 points. I guess I struggle with addition now D:
  
  Akcshually just 3
- If you're leading by 1.5 points with a margin of error of 2 points, then it's most likely that your lead is real. The range of error is a bell curve. It's more likely for a well-conducted poll to be off by 0.5 points than 1.5.

Well, his "followers" where already convinced to vote for him, and he's so far out that people that did not follow him already actually have enough brain to not equate "assassination attempt" with "he's a hero", so there's that.

Yeah, he's kinda capped out on support. That shouldn't be too surprising.
- I feel with Vance getting the VP pick and the Trump run RNC, that Republicans believe they have the numbers. They are doing nothing to get swing voters and I'm glad to see that.
  
  They trust polls way, way too much.
  
  Andrew Yang sent out an email the other day that I partially agree with. The JD Vance pick is a bold signal that Trump thinks he's already won. He could have picked Doug Bergum, Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio and any of them would have brought something to the table that could potentially shore up Trump's weaknesses in the upcoming election and reassured moderates, corporate donors, and minority groups that Trump had their best interests at heart. But instead he picked a junior senator with no legislative accomplishments, no real connections to business or Washington politicians, and no household name recognition, and only redeeming quality is that he has a law degree from Yale.
  I would say it's almost certain that he got picked because he made a statement that if he were the VP during Trump's first term, he would not have certified the 2020 election results. Yikes.
  I'm not surprised that Trump is packing his cabinet with dyed-in-the-wool loyalists. Part of the reason a lot of his plots failed in his first term is because career politicians refused to break the law at his behest. I don't really see this backfiring for him since the VP pick is secondary to Trump's own cult of personality. It's not a strong VP pick, but it didn't really matter who he picked. He could have picked Donald Trump Jr. to be his running mate and MAGA would have gone along with it.

Make sense... those who drank the kool aid are in for him no matter what... getting shot at does not seem like a deciding factor for anyone "on the fence"
- "I was unsure at first, but he survived an incompetent shooter, so now I find his policies pretty convincing."
  
  These are American voters we’re talking about…

Man, I really hope for the US and the rest of the world that most Democrats show up to vote. Otherwise, we know who to blame if Trump wins.

This mother f'er has to be the luckiest human to ever live.

I just never saw why he would. The people voting for him are cultists. The people against him have already been disgusted by him in one way or another, I just can't imagine how getting grazed would change their minds.

They way things work these days the shooting will be forgotten in 2 weeks.
- It's been 2 days and I already stopped seeing posts about it.

aww did lil babby need a plaster for his lil oopsie?
- I'm surprised it's not a maga bandaid
  
  Maybe gold or something
- I'm surprised he didn't show up in a fully body cast to maximize his play for sympathy.

I just hope he gets the post-shooting boot. Let him go back to making terrible shows and not running our country.
- No?
  Let him go to gaol for his crimes and trying to coup your country.
  
  With criminal trial at least in courtrooms and with lawyers bleeding him dry for the foreseeable future

Polls don’t account for the Grey Death that will arise from the nursing homes to vote when the time comes. Nor does it account for the younger generations who argue about politics online but won’t bother actually voting.
- Edit: replied to wrong comment
  It's depressing how many of the elderly turn out that way.

See 2020. The same result is quite likely. I don't care what any new organization or poll says. Don't care.
- In 2020 the incumbent lost, uh-oh /s

The only thing missing from that picture is him holding the chain attached to Slave Leia.

Isn't 2k voters a comically small sample to draw any results from? I hope it is true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
- Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %. Some example numbers: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/how-many-people-do-i-need-to-take-my-survey/
  That is for "1 population" though, I don't know if the divided USA public opinion still counts as 1 population. I'm not a polling scientist, I just know that you don't need a massive amount of data points to draw statistically sound conclusions. Try tossing a coin and see how fast it stabilizes towards 50/50, that one really surprised me the first time I did it.
  
  Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %.
  You're totally right, my statistics is very rusty, good lord. For the ~240M eligible voters in the US, you can get roughly 2% margin of error, for the usual 95% confidence level.
  My comment was a bit daft, in retrospective. Surely the polling people know what they're doing, better than I do for sure x)
  I guess it goes to show how non intuitive some statistical methods can be at first?
- I think 2k is a bit larger than the average polls I've seen which are 400 to 1500 usually.
  
  1000 is a solid sample size to start with, doubling that is better. But ultimately polls are flawed in the designers bias. How they frame questions matters and creates biases.

There are a number of conflicting polls but realize that they can't account for things like "enthusiasm gap" which definitely cuts in Trump's favor at the moment. That said, the newscycles have been so insane lately, who knows what the next 10 inflection points before the election will bring.

I'd say it's unlikely to change minds, but it could cause people to be even more forceful in their support and more likely to vote.

If it was me. I would stop my campaign out of respect for the family of the fallen.
- In a news report the wife of the deceased said Biden called but she refused the call because the husband was a die hard republican, when asked she said no one from the trump side called.
  
  Dang. I would pick up for Biden. I think he's the kind of guy who would talk to you for hours at a BBQ with a nice beer 🍻. Politics is definitely not everything. I think that's what pisses me off so much about Trump. Man I wanna do all the things in my bucket list before I'm expired but somehow in the background these assholes keep making unnecessary problems. I gotta work on my yard, I got programming to do and kids to entertain but nahhh...the social security money is running out, or nuclear war ahead, or we'll be deporting all LGBTQA people to Cuba. And it just demands attention constantly. Even though we only vote the one time and our vote doesn't even count towards electing the president. That's why I would love to have a constant vote app...you can vote Trump today and if tomorrow he screws up, just remove your vote. If enough people unvote, he's out.
- Trump: "respect? That's that one song by the black lady right? insert racist ramble here"
- That seems like an odd sentiment. I'm no Trump supporter, but I can imagine a mindset of "hold on, my family died supporting you and you're going to give up?"

That would be some sort of participation trophy.

He does poll much higher than Harris in some polls that show up on Fivethirtyeight but it hardly makes much sense to include those polls, imo.

A bit unrelated but the Stock price for Trump Media went up

why does he look disabled?

if Republicans win they do what they want and if Democrats win they let the Republicans do what they want
no matter what the outcome of the election is we will certainly be left with an elderly far right out of touch Christian who wants more police funding, less worker's rights with stagnated wages, less bodily autonomy, more state's rights, restrictive immigration policies, less education funding, more tax breaks for mega corporations
- If the lesser evil wins, you get to protest and put pressure on the government to improve things. If the greater evil does, you end up in the prison system if you try that.
  A vote is not a love letter, it is a bus ticket.
  
  which one is the lesser evil?
  under their leadership prices on everyday items has skyrocketed, pay has stagnated and has lowered compared to start pay during the covid pandemic, there is no universal healthcare, we have less rights today than eight years ago (shocked we still have marriage equality at least for now)
  both are Christian and our loss of rights to bodily autonomy over their two presidential terms drives the point home
  both candidates supported the takeover of mega corporate tobacco taking over nicotine harm reduction
  cannabis regulation in the same form as we currently treat vaped nicotine is supported by both candidates leading to more iffy products and more criminals for the mega corporate prison complexes
  Biden's crime bills from his time as a politician are still causing harm in people's lives today so how does picking a prosecutor for his running mate show any change or any difference in these policies or his thinking versus Trump?
  so which candidate was it that supports us the citizens? hard to tell the two apart
  A vote is not a love letter, it is a bus ticket.
  if there is truth in this statement why not throw support behind a third party? with enough votes even with a low number eventually a third party would have to be recognized the same as the other two with access to the national debate stage
- Your vote is more than just consent for that party to enact their agenda. It is the strongest, if not the only, way to message both parties what you want government to do that they really listen too. Vote blue repeatedly and the Dems platform moves to the left as will the Reps eventually. Enough people vote blue consistently over time and the Reps would support healthcare reform etc...
  Don't vote and you get ignored. Period.
  
  You're right
  That's why I won't use my vote to tell the government I support genocide.
  I'll vote downticket for Dems because I somewhat agree with them domestically, but they're just as bad on foreign policy so I'm writing in Aaron Bushnell for President.

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