6mo ago

Biden Has Lost Little Swing-State Support Following First Debate

pro.morningconsult.com Biden Leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin After Debate

Trump has widened his edge in Nevada and Pennsylvania

53 comments

This poll is a notable outlier... The article is basically just a blog post from the polling outfit itself...
Here's results on 65 different polls for Michigan:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html
The vast majority of polls have Trump leading Michigan, but a lot of those are also within the margin of error and otherwise very close.
What is with Lemmy's insistence on pretending that the debate either didn't hurt Biden, or actually helped him?
It's like a lot of people here actually believe that by pretending nothing is wrong, that means nothing is wrong.
FYI that New York Times link is simply an easy aggregated URL that shows the results for, and then directly links to 65 different polls for Michigan.
- Sister it’s kinda crazy to me. Lemmy will downvote news posts with credible polls showing Biden dropping, and upvote any questionable source that says otherwise. I’m also a Democrat but to me a credible news story should not be disparaged for saying something I dont want to hear. It doesn’t do any good to hide from the truth. “You must know the enemy in order to meet him on the battlefield”- Sun Tzu or idk maybe I just made that up.
  I mean what is pro.morningconsult? I’ve never heard of that ever. And I’ve seen Rueters posts get downvoted! Rueters!
  
  I wasn't kidding, it is actually the blog of that market research/polling firm.
  It's dressed up a bit to make it seem like it's delivering news, but it's primarily just writing up their own market research and polling data in the form of articles, or more accurately, blog posts.
  
  Try to understand the difference between a pundit and an expert.
  
  Morning Consult is a well known polling company. If you've followed polls and aren't familiar with them I'm amazed. They do some sort of online polling which makes them cheap and fast, but there's nothing suspicious about them and they haven't shown any bias I've recognized. It's not a questionable source, but is just one poll so it might not be accurate.
- Anyone can sign up to Lemmy. Including image management consultants.
  If you think Biden's corner doesn't have paid professional image management consultants I have a bridge to sell you.
  Don't be discouraged! Stand your ground and rep your political position diligently and constantly.
  
  I usually don't assume malice what can adequately be explained by copium
  
  It's much more likely that they're ordinary people acting according to well known psychological patterns of tribalism. People can hold different beliefs or values without being paid actors.

He's still projected to lose according to composite polling like 270toWin, Rasmussen, RealClearPolitics, and fivethirtyeight. It's hardly changed in months and it never looked great. I recommend people get out there and start trying to change peoples minds with methods proven to be effective and nonthreatening.
- This is 100% accurate -- in the previous posting, I actually had a whole little spiel about it. Yes. Things are still fucked. If anyone is reading this thinking the intent is "oh good we can relax" then that is absolutely not the intent. The purpose is:
  It's extremely notable that the media is so relentlessly pushing the narrative that Biden tanked because of the debate (which was, of course, horrifying.) I'm actually pretty surprised that the American people are capable of determining that the old as fuck feeble guy is a better choice than the explicitly malicious shoot-the-protestors guy. But, I guess it does make some kind of sense. This is important context to keep in mind any time you are reading one of those "Biden's fucked now" stories -- it says more about the news outlet than about the impact the debate had, outside of the media landscape.
  Courage! As mentioned above the American people are smarter than the media. I kind of hope that something happens within the Democrats to make me feel better about how the election will go. But, apparently, most people aren't as simple minded as to say "Well, forgot about wanting to keep contraception legal and not deporting all the immigrants, that guy's old; now I want the guy who's just death for all, dressed in a spray-tan skin suit."
  
  the American people are smarter than the media.
  They absolutely are not if you are speaking in gross generalities. Maybe the people you are used to interacting with are, but there's a lot of stupid mother fuckers in this country that cum from watching Fox News.
- „Biden is projected to lose“ is spun a bit negatively for a 49-51 split, no?
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
  Basically it’s anyone’s game now, and it will come down to extremely few votes in the end.
  
  538 is still 50/50 because they have a base assumption that it's too early to tell anything. So the algorithm is pretty hardcoded to read 50/50 for another couple months.
  We have the polling though and his battleground polling absolutely took a hit after the election. For example Biden either needs PA and one other state or all but one if he loses PA. So that's a pretty hard requirement. He was basically even with Trump in PA the night of the debate. But now that gap is opening up, the wrong way. There are very clear indicators of a an impending catastrophe.
  
  It's still a projection to lose. Far too close for my taste, and if you look at the 270towin EC Projections Trump only needs 2 swing states at the least while Biden needs 3, Republicans have 12 victory outcomes to Democrats 9, 1 potential tie. It does not look good.
  
  Sssshhhhh you're fuckin up the narrative
  We've pivoted from "the debate was a CATASTROPHE look at these polls falling" to "how can you say Biden is still viable when he's 2 points behind right after something majorly depressive to his numbers happened and there are only 4 months more to go"
  It's actually pretty impressive how seamless it went from caring deeply how much his poll numbers have dropped to caring deeply how they're sitting at practically exactly the same level they were, which is slightly behind
  Also there's this
- 270toWin, Rasmussen, RealClearPolitics, and fivethirtyeight

Worth noting three things:
(1) This is from Bloomberg's company...
Need I remind everyone that the Billionaire, Michael Bloomberg, is almost solely responsible for shoving the Biden nomination down our throats in 2020.
How, you do you ask?
He explicitly wrote that he would only join the contest if he thought Warren or Sanders could win. So he joined, mirrored Biden's platform, spent a ton of money on ads and attack ads on the progressive candidates (I believe it was in the range of a half a billion dollars), built his infrastructure, then bowed out and handed the keys to Biden.
It may very well be valid, but take with a grain of salt.
(2) This pollster is rated pretty lowly compared to gold standard pollsters, according to 538. (Rank 116).
(3) This poll currently remains an outlier until further top-tier pollsters corroborate.

I'm willing most of the undecided voters are Republicans who know Trump is awful. Anyone who was already voting against Trump is going to continue doing that.
My hope is that Kennedy will steal those votes from Trump.
- I hate to be so defeatist, but I honestly don't even consider most voters to understand politics at all. Trump voters don't realize they're voting for tax cuts for billionaires, raises on everyone else, and a massive deficit. Biden voters probably don't know anything he's done in the last three years. Kennedy voters could be siphoning from either or both uneducated groups.
  You and me having frequent discussion and access to unbiased news feeds, we're a minority.
  But yeah, hopefully trumpets jump ship in the Generals.
- I firmly believe there are no voters undecided between Trump and Biden. If anyone SAYS they're undecided, it's Trump voters who won't admit who they're voting for, or people trying to decide between voting and not voting.
  
  Then we're already screwed. Because that puts Trump into landslide territory.
- That's not how the Electoral College works though. If Biden doesn't make 270 then it gets thrown into Congress and they vote by state delegation. It doesn't matter if the end result is 269-Biden; 227-Trump; 42-RFK. That's a Trump win unless some state delegations change hands in November; (The new Congress votes).

He's 7 points down in Pennsylvania according to this poll, what a headline to run with.

And just like that, c/politics trusts polls.

I would bet actual cash money that Michigan is gonna be red and that Biden is most definitely not leading the state.
I don't even see him trying to campaign here because SE Michigan will go out of their way to overrun his campaign with protests even if he tries to hide in the Ford plant like the last 2 DNC candidates did.
- So we're gonna have another candidate who doesn't campaign in swing states, this time out of fear that he'll continue to look bad.
- Michigan isn't the problem. Pennsylvania is the problem; there's an extremely narrow path to victory for Biden if Trump wins Pennsylvania. Basically without PA, they need to flip Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Kentucky. And then they need nearly every other state that's up for grabs.
  
  Doubt he'll win Pennsylvania, he's got that whole settlerman problem there.
- If Biden loses a state that's only gone red once in 40 years, it's over for him.

@jordanlund@lemmy.world Hi. I didn't editorialize the headline -- Mbin fills in the headline based on the HTML title. Open up the link, mouse over the tab, and you'll see the same title I had posted. I just didn't edit it after MBin filled it in, which maybe I should have. Anyway, here it is, reposted with the current headline. If I had to guess, I would say the site changed the headline in the article without also changing the HTML title tag.
It would have been nice to get a heads up, so I could just edit the title and preserve the conversation, but all good in any case. If you want me to do that instead, just let me know and that sounds fine (by which I mean, substantially better) to me as well.

How are these polls taken? Online? What if you create a bunch of fake email accounts and vote, skewing the results?

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