10mo ago

China's Xi accused the US of trying to trick him into invading Taiwan, but said he won't take the bait, report says

www.businessinsider.com

Xi Jinping accused the US of trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, the Financial Times said.
The Chinese leader made the claim to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, per the FT.
One expert told BI it's a sign that China is "genuinely surprised" by the attitude of US officials.

…

For decades, the US has adopted "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the country's most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.

But the mood in Washington, DC, seems to be shifting, with Congress showing itself more "overtly supportive of Taiwan than only a few years ago," Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider in November.

…

"The US has plenty of public figures now talking of Taiwan like it is a new Ukraine, and some even saying it needs to be diplomatically recognized," Brown added.

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10mo ago

China's Xi accused the US of trying to trick him into invading Taiwan, but said he won't take the bait

www.businessinsider.com /xi-says-us-trying-trick-china-invade-taiwan-wont-succeed-2024-6

68 comments

Oh no. Xi saw through our dastardly reverse psychology. Now we have no choice but to watch him not invade our ally. How horrific.
- And the Russians where also very vocal about not invading Ukraine right up to the moment that they did. So what I'm trying to say is "talk is cheap".
- I have a spare deck of UNO cards, should the US require them for a strategic response.

You show America, Pooh Bear! Pledge to never attack Taiwan! Really show them by recognizing its sovereignty and normalizing trade relations!
- "Taiwan is its own state, and should remain so in perpetuity. China will be their shoreline supporters! --Xi"
  submit
  "Yeah, that'll show them." Said Xi as he sat back with satisfaction and dipped his hand into a jar of honey.
- I've been saying for months that he should reclaim Upper Manchuria or Northern Manchuria. Don't remember what it was called till Russia invaded in 1901. That would give him the military victory he's looking for, and it's not like anyone is gonna complain about Russia being weakened by losing its only warm water Pacific port. It's currently called Vladivostok

I don't think he believes what he says for the reasons hes claiming. I think if he's really set on not invading it's because hes seen how poorly its working for Russia. China wants Taiwans economy, you cant get that if Taiwan looks like Ukraine before you even get control.
If Xi is being serious it's probably because he's realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means. Weather he has a plan for that remains to be seen.
- Given Russia's performance in Ukraine, Iran firing 5% of its total stockpile at Israel and having almost nothing get through modern American air defense, and China's own review of military readiness that showed glaring flaws and corruption, any plans China may have had to invade Taiwan should be postponed indefinitely.
  Turning local elections in Taiwan in China's favor in the long term seems like the more viable alternative for reunification.
  
  True, even without reunification (what's for?), China gets more by economical means than it would ever has via invasion. It's insane production capacity, belt&road schemes, education and science are a caricature of a suntzian wise guy who wins a war without a battle. Reducing themselves to a war (and probably destroying everything they are jealous of in Taiwan in the process) would be embarassingly stupid. I watch their sabblerattling as a play, but I'm yet to see any benefit from it besides upkeeping the status of those not to fuck with.
  
  My thoughts exactly. Probably tougher than HK but similar playbook, my guess is a slow long term approach would be the most likely to succeed.
- he’s realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means
  Add in psyops programs. They have been a resounding success against UK and the US for Putin.
- He’ll take it through political means, by running candidates that support his regime. Then he will put an end to democracy there. Kind of like Hong Kong.
- And Russia is able to cart in supplies by road and rail. If anything Ukraine is also showing that supply across a 100+ miles of sea will be nearly impossible. The navy does not have to control the waters, they just need to deny the Chinese access to it and that is much easier.

A) You can't "invade" something you already possess... is how he will spin it when he tries to invade.
B) Didn't Putin say the same thing about Ukraine?
- Feb. 12 – After another unfruitful phone call between Biden and Putin, U.S. officials warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could come at any time. A Kremlin aide accused the West of creating “hysteria.” “The Americans are artificially inflating the hysteria around the so-called planned Russian invasion,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters after the call between Biden and Putin. “The preconditions for possible provocative actions of the Ukrainian armed forces are being created alongside these allegations.”
  https://www.factcheck.org/2022/02/russian-rhetoric-ahead-of-attack-against-ukraine-deny-deflect-mislead/
  
  It's like a word for word replay.
- Hey, that's the same excuse cops use for committing war crimes on their own citizens.

while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.
“You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons,” a reporter said to Mr. Biden. “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”
“Yes,” Mr. Biden answered flatly.
“You are?” the reporter followed up.
“That’s the commitment we made,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-china.html
Sounds more like someone came to their senses but tries to save face....hopefully. You never know if this is just a strategic move to make others believe they won't attack.

So this means invasion in sept? If we were to follow what happened in Ukraine?
- October and even then you might get the odd Typhoon https://old.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/jawz01/does_the_taiwan_strait_really_suffer_from/

I'm imagining Netanyahu, Xi and Putin having their own IM group where they share these blurbs and react with emojis. "Check out what I'll publish lol"
- My gut says there's grudging admiration between the two blue-suited balding megalomaniacs, but of the two, only Putin talks to Xi often, and even then, only because he has to.

As absurd as it seems sometimes, the One China policy has kept the peace for decades. I wouldn’t toss it out without a very, very good reason.
I mean, to people under 50ish, Taiwan is a stable, functioning democracy with an advanced economy but that didn’t really happen until 1987. It was basically a fascistic military dictatorship prior to that. It’s a much more complicated history than we sometimes acknowledge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan_(1945%E2%80%93present)
I’m an elder millennial, I guess, and I was alive but too young to remember Taiwan’s first real elections. I get that the One China policy might feel like a relic of a bygone era since I know it from history books too. But most world leaders are old enough to remember when Taiwan was a dysfunctional, fascistic military dictatorship. It might require another few generations of peace before it’s fully consolidated.
I mean, to put it in perspective, Robocop, Lethal Weapon, and Predator came out in 1987. People old enough to see those movies in theaters remember a different era and likely have a fundamentally different understanding of Taiwan/Mainland relations. Xi, Biden, and Trump are all over 70.
- Bro, Trump doesn't know shit about anything. Xi and Biden though know very well.
- Frankly it's in Xi's best benefit to not invade Taiwan, because it would cause a collapse of the One China policy. China benefits considerably from the current policy that's ambiguous on recognizing Taiwan. The moment they invade though, that goes away, and it becomes inevitable that Taiwan gains international recognition as independent -- presuming the US helps repel an invasion.
  If there's anything we've learned though from the last few years, it's that seemingly intelligent world leaders can make idiotic decisions that go against their best interest -- namely Putin and Ukraine. Xi strikes me as the type of person to keep yesmen like Putin, and that means he could make just as foolish a mistake.

We need to stop acknowledging the one China policy. China is threatening war against Taiwan, and there should be absolutely zero doubt that we don't condone Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
EU and other allies should of course not support it either.
- I mean China can't really do anything about the autonomous mainland provinces steadfastly refusing to declare independence, even if you can find precedent of a sovereign state kicking out its provinces unilaterally it'd still be a dick move.
  
  What? I have no idea where that came from? The One China policy is about reuniting Taiwan with mainland China.
  In principle I don't mind that China wants Taiwan to reunite with China, as long as they are perfectly peaceful about it, like with Germany and Est Germany.
  But what are you talking about?
- "Once China" sounds like a good policy :D
  
  I have no idea how that happened, but it's corrected now.

Of course the only reason you use the term invasion is if the place is outside the borders of your country. Funny.
- Tbh, it's not. For example I could say I was gonna invade your wife later today
  
  thats not formal usage though its more like slang and would not be used by political figures in public......oh yeah. its nowadays. dumpsterfire and all. yeah. you have a point.
- use the term invasion is if the place is outside the borders of your country.
  The land of the Uyghurs which is called Xinjiang literally means "New Frontier." Even through language, it's obvious this land does not "fit" with the rest of China but it does not stop the Chinese government considering it their own land. (FYI the Uyghurs are a Turkic people while most of China speaks Sino-Tibetan Languages).

Thank goodness.

Xi taking a page out of the abusive husband playbook, I see.

He knows China doesn't have the capability to invade Taiwan, but needs to save face. So... the evil foreigners are trying to trick us, but I'm too smart to fall for their tricks!
Fascist propaganda 101, always blame the foreigners for everything.
- He knows China doesn’t have the capability to invade Taiwan
  Large scale ground invasions are generally a losing game.
  But the Chinese strategy towards Taiwan has always been the same strategy as Hong Kong, Tibet, and Mongolia. Become economically invaluable and set policy through soft power.
  The only real incentive to send in ground troops would be to respond to a Cuba Missile style escalation. And it no longer looks like the Americans are interested in installing short range missiles on the island, now that they have exhausted themselves arming Ukraine.
  
  Large scale ground invasions are generally a losing game.
  Large scale amphibious assaults even moreso. I feel like people keep forgetting Taiwan is an island. Sure China has a massive army and could throw a lot of waves of soldiers in a straight up ground campaign, but with Taiwan it wouldn't be a straight up ground campaign.
  So yeah their strat would have to be based around economy and politics for the time being. Sure they're improving their Navy, but it's probably be at least a decade (if ever) they could have successful military action on Taiwan other than just sabre rattling.
- Well it has the capability of trying. It would end up costing them insanely more than it could possibly gain, but still.
  
  Xi needs to keep people thinking he's the strongman that's protecting China from the evil foreigners. If he tries to invade Taiwan and fails (the most likely outcome) he appears weak and it's over for him.

Ok. He's copying putain. We are doomed
- So far, he's being smarter than monkey putin.

This doesn't mean we should stop deterrence
- Well this probably means he'll invade, so yes.
  
  "US is making me do it"

Whatever keeps his ass out of the sling

This is like Saul Goodman levels of bullshit

It's not a trap, because they were warned beforehand about what would happen if you did it. It's a dare, like in "Jackass!".

Now we need a report saying the same for the Russians in Ukraine

This is the best summary I could come up with:
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has accused the US of trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but he said it won't take the bait, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
According to the FT, Xi made the accusation during a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April last year.
Xi has issued the same warning to officials in his own country, one source told the FT, but this would be the first time he made the claim to a foreign leader, the outlet said.
But the mood in Washington, DC, seems to be shifting, with Congress showing itself more "overtly supportive of Taiwan than only a few years ago," Graeme Thomson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told BI in November.
Last month, a US congressional delegation met with senior Taiwanese officials to discuss US-Taiwan relations, a few days after China conducted military drills around the island.
During a meeting in April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned US Secretary of State Antony Blinken not to cross China's "red lines" on sovereignty, security, and development interests.
The original article contains 555 words, the summary contains 184 words. Saved 67%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

We're not starting WWIII over TSMC and nVidia's stock price.
Shit, most of the world won't even recognise Taiwan as a country. I can hardly see Haiti, Paraguay and the Vatican coming to the rescue.
- pfft no, but we will fulfill our treaty obligations to the 24 million people who don't deserve china's bullshit.
  TSMC has kill switches installed already. China would only get a pile of slag if they tried it. and they won't.
  What China should do is reassess the Treaty of Aigun - does it still really apply, considering today's russians are neither the soviet block nor the russian empire? The areas in question are overwhelmingly asian in demographics. There's a whole lot of resources up there just sitting around because russia's never been able to chew bubble gum and walk at the same time, much less persecute a pointless, losing war while exploiting it's own resources.
- Shit, most of the world won’t even recognise Taiwan as a country.
  The thing the article seems to neglect. China is winning the diplomatic game globally. Taiwan is less well recognized than Palestine.

It's wild that the US is trying to escalate tensions with China when it's still busy with Russia.

Taiwanese liberation from the Imperialist West anyone?
- Given the economic imperialist policies Chinese Communist Party in South America and Africa, let alone the lack of democratic institutions when compared to Taiwan, the CCP's interest in Taiwan has far less to do with 'liberating' it than taking control of its substantial economic base.

68 comments