7mo ago

Russia lacks 'numbers for strategic breakthrough' in Ukraine: NATO

www.euronews.com Russia lacks 'numbers for strategic breakthrough' in Ukraine: NATO

Moscow says it will keep pushing its offensive in Ukraine, though NATO doubts Russia has the resources to make a significant breakthrough.

Moscow says it will keep pushing its offensive in Ukraine, though NATO doubts Russia has the resources to make a significant breakthrough.

NATO’s top military officer has said Russia’s armed forces are incapable of any major advance.

“The Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough,” NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli told reporters on Thursday.

“More to the point, they don’t have the skill and the capability to do it; to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage,” the general said.

78 comments

I really hope this is true. The delay in US funding gave a huge advantage to Russia
- It was a straight-up Republican gift to Vladimir Putin. Fuck these cowards...
  
  I find that Americans that usually say this kind of thing are staunch Sanders supporters. The same Sanders that continuously blocked the bill with quite a few other non-Republicans in that cohort.
  We watch such bills abroad too because they're international. There's no sides and parties to it, just an example of how dumb American politics is as a whole. Don't worry, I'm sure the Republicans are dumbest if that makes you feel better. But it is important to scratch a bit deeper below social media's handpicked articles and comments, lest you end up becoming the same as those you oppose without realising it.

They could still hold onto the land and Ukrainian population they've taken so far. Anything less than Ukraine regaining Crimea and the rest of its territory will not only be a loss for them, but would tell the Russian government that the West would rather appease them than let allow a conflict to escalate further. Appeasement didn't work on Hitler, and it won't work on Putin either.
- Considering after two years of a Military Operation that was supposed to last weeks, they are now putting someone in to put them into a "wartime economy footing" I expect them to eventually either lose or have all of Ukraine. There really doesn't seem to be middle ground for Putin.
  
  Even if they would get all of Ukraine, I would expect quite a bit of underground resistance that would make holding on to Ukraine expensive.

Then why the fuck did they send so many troops to Libya?!
I guess I shouldn't complain too hard, you never want to correct an enemy when they're making a mistake.
- Because they have strategic interests across the globe. From the Russian perspective, taking control of Ukraine would be great, but preventing them from intefrating into the EU and NATO is the real focus. Ukraine can't take back the occupied lands, and Russia will be able to l outlast Ukraine in an attritional war.

Okay not that I'm insinuating that this is the same circumstance, but the last time a certain nation said this, it eventually backfired.
Putin's plan to capture Ukraine failed miserably, but Russia still has a significant fighting force and time to keep drawing this war out as long as they want.
Ukraine's former general emphasized their own losses and said it was critical that Ukraine train more troops and acquire supplies quickly.
They can't afford to stock on latest greatest weapons which is why they've been overly reliant on donations of old and surplus tech, especially vehicles.
NATO, ie mostly the USA, has failed to supply Ukraine with any significant stock of modern muntions that would give them an edge against Russia. It's been two years and they still don't have base block F-16s which would absolutely have helped during the early stages of the war.
Russia can keep the war machine going, slowly rearm, and try again, which could prove detrimental for Ukraine. They need to be decisively defeated in order for Ukraine to succeed.
For Ukraine's sake, I really hope someone diposes Putin in a coup, considering how much of a wreck he made.
- Both can be true: Russia can lack numbers to make a strategic breakthrough, and Ukraine can simultaneously not be able to field enough materiel to be able to recapture their losses.
  IMO the most likely outcome is a stalemate that turns into de jure conquest of the territory Russia has captured and it turns into a cold (or at least cooler) war.
  
  You mean de facto conquest, right? And why would either side stop shooting?
- For Ukraine’s sake, I really hope someone diposes Putin in a coup
  Yeah you don't want that, the second biggest party is the communists, but from what I hear they're not really communists, just boomers nostalgic for the USSR.
  The nationalists waiting in the wings to seize power are even more psychotic than Putin.
  The liberals are a distant 4th want to bring back the 90s, which created the conditions that got us here.
  The communists would maintain the war for the same reasons the Putin does
  The nationalists would make it 10x worse
  The libs might end the war, but would definitely immiserate all of Russia again so the nationalists have an easier time recruiting.

Great, let the Russians break their backs over this.
I'd like to see their military capabilities in traction for a while.

If the Russians can’t succeed with numbers, will they escalate?
- … to what?
  Are you suggesting we’re still waiting for the real Russian military to show up?
  Or are you suggesting Russian deployment of tactical nuclear weapons?
  Or is there another way that Russia could further escalate I can’t think of?
- I worry that they will escalate with nuclear weapons. Putin seems hell bent on starting WW III.
  
  Nuclear weapons will lose all their remaining international support, as well as NATO launching full conventional strikes against every Russian military asset in the Black Sea and occupied Ukraine. Russia knows that use of tactical nuclear weapons will result in the total collapse of the Russian state, which is why theu are aonky going to use them if NATO troops coming knocking on the doors of St. Petersburg
  
  Nuclear weapon usage does not result in WWIII, it's an end the world button.

What a minute, didn't NATO say that Russia is trying to conquer all of Europe, and attack NATO countries, yet it doesn't have the numbers for a significant breakthrough in Ukraine. Something's fishy going on with this statement.... The psychological operations continue.
- I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I've been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.
  
  Not a Russia simp, I've been watching this war with some interest, and I've got a friend whose only hobby at this point is following this war.
  If you look at how much Russian military ops have changed across almost every consideration over the course of the war, it's really a stark difference between where they are today and where they were two years ago. It's pretty clear Russia totally bunglefucked the opening maneuvers in the war. They've had to learn a lot of lessons and learn them hard, and they're still learning them, but they are learning. I definitely think that Russia really did expect this was going to be a cakewalk, and that they were going to force Kiev into negotiations or else kill Zelenskyy in the first week. I can't be 100% sure what the Russian military leadership was expecting, but I seriously doubt it was this.
  
  Russian officer: See that tank we have 15 more in storage.
  Russian general: can I see them?
  RO: ah well you see there are logistical concerns and we have to make an appointment with the guy.....
  
  I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I’ve been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.
  Russia isn't part of NATO. Why is NATO contradicting itself with a narrative that Putin is out to conquer Europe, bring back the USSR, and claim here, it is too weak to do so on this front?
- Trying to and able to are two different things.
  
  If you don't have the capacity, then you can't. How do you know they are "trying"? NATO said Russia is a threat to NATO and the US says Russia is a threat to national security. This statement seems to indicate that NATO is crossing their own lies. It is a contradiction, one of many coming out of NATO.
- Clown account.
- Something’s fishy going on with this statement
  It's not difficult to understand. The SACEUR doesn't speak for NATO as an organization and in fact the idea that Christopher Cavoli is "NATO’s top military officer" would come as quite a surprise to his boss Admiral Rob Bauer the Chair of the NATO Military Committee.
  Admiral Bauer, unlike Cavoli, actually does speak for NATO.
  What does Admiral Bauer have to say? His statements are the official ones, not the just opinion of an Officer.
- If they win in Ukraine it will bolster their military strength, war chest, and public support in Russia.
  Then they'll attack their next victims when they've had time to prepare.
- Yikes, just looked at your profile. A supporter of both capitalism and authoritarianism?
  I've never seen anyone so eager to tell the world that they are Neutral Evil.
- I do not see contradiction in those statements. Plus, if they can do 50 miles per year, sooner or later they will conquer Ukraine, then Baltic states, then Moldova and Poland and so on…
  
  Poland is a NATO member, so no, they're not touching Poland. If they do it's WWIII.

78 comments