11mo ago

The U.S. labor market is shifting toward skilled labor as white-collar hiring slows

www.nbcnews.com

The evidence can be found in the data, which shows higher unemployment for workers in business services and a lower one for people who work in manufacturing.

America's job market increasingly appears to be splitting into two tracks, economists say, alongside a steady demand for skilled workers and a flagging interest in hiring more "knowledge-based" professionals.

The evidence can be found in the data, which shows a higher unemployment rate for professional and business services workers, and a lower one for people who work in manufacturing.

"It's a buyer's market for brain and a seller's market for brawn," said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the jobs and workplace search site Glassdoor.

17 comments

Because white collar workers don't think they need to unionize, as their buying power erodes. An engineer today makes, inflation adjusted, drastically less than an engineer in previous generations. Many of my friends grandparents were engineers and were happily retiring at 40 years old. How often do you see that today?
This trend will not slow. Engineers will work for McDonalds wages and not unionize because "I'm an engineer, I don't need to do that!"
We shouldn't let perceived self-importance get weaponized against our own best-interests, but we do.
(Apply same analogy to other educated fields, it's all the same bull, diff titles diff jargon. Same getting fucked.)
- There needs to be an analyst union. That title gets jerked around worse than most.

Oh, cool, looks like I left blue collar and got a college degree just in the nick of time.
- Oh, cool, looks like I left blue collar and got a college degree just in the nick of time.
  For a long time US Society has held that College Degrees don't go with "Skilled Labor" or "Blue Collar" but it's not true. As an example I know two Civil Engineers, something most people would consider White Collar, who spend nearly all of their time out in the field. One of them with a State DOT overseeing Road Construction and the other with the Federal Government overseeing work on Dams.
  I also know an Electrical Engineer who spends most of their time out in the field working with Power Systems, both transmission and generation. I know EE who works full time at a Refinery, overseeing a crew of Electricians as they maintain the refineries internal power system.
  All of those people would be considered "White Collar" since they are Engineers with College Degrees but their day to day work has them out getting dirty and tired.
  It's not just Engineers either. If your Degree relates to something that requires tangible work, not just moving numbers around on a spreadsheet, it's quite likely you'll be fine. You just need to get a job and then work as close to the physical production as possible.
- Someone will need to manage the blue collar folks. Having experience in a work field and a degree is likely what owners/bosses will still be needing to hire. They need less middle managers for mundane data tracking purposes. Front Line management will always be around.

If you believe Peter Zeihan then you know why this is happening and you also know that this trend will both accelerate and expand.
In a nutshell the United States is de-globalizing and that requires the return of production and manufacturing to US shores. As that work comes back home increasing amounts of skilled labor will be required for every step in a very long logistics chain.
If he's correct, and I think he is, then the next 20-30 years are going to be great for skilled labor.

Software can’t replace blue collar workers without expensive robotics. As AI improves, this will only get worse.
- All the practical to automate physical/blue collar jobs have already been automated. Anyone who's job doesn't require interacting with the physical world is who's at risk for automation/AI nowadays.
  
  They’ll keep creeping in as long as people support the business model.
  https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/18/24130997/kernel-ai-robot-vegan-burgers-potatoes

I wonder if its cause openai made white colar jobs worth 30$ a day

Sweaty blue collar labor requires vastly more skill than any white collar job.
- I don't think you can generalise white collar jobs that way. I've done both, and writing software all day takes way more out of me than when I did manual labour. But some white collar jobs don't require much effort at all. I wish it was easier to balance using your brain and your body for work.
  
  I’ll agree with that, really what I meant to get it is that there’s no such thing as unskilled labor and folks belittle specifically blue collar labor often. Divisive of me, so I do apologize.

17 comments