How a second Trump presidency could tear Europe apart

Vote for Biden no matter what, yankees, because otherwise everyone is fucked.

American here:

I really hope it doesn’t pan out that way, but to be honest, it’s hard not to see Europe as asleep at the switch here. Sure, everyone was surprised Trump won in 2016, but it became really obvious what the trajectory was the second he took office, and it seems that most European countries simply refused to account for that in a lot of different ways.

Now, I’m seeing European countries hoping really hard that Trump doesn’t win… but not much progress on collective geopolitical annd strategic efforts that aren’t already closely tied to the US. The EU’s collective military power compared to the US is a bit of a joke, as is the current state of their military supply and logistical lines (which directly underwrite and sustain military power). And the ESA’s current launch capability is comparatively minuscule compared to what NASA has done for decades.

Don’t get me wrong: I know Europe spends way more on their citizens, and that is awesome. But though it’s less direct, making sure the big stick actually exists when countries like Russia or China (or, conceivably in a Trumpian-US future… the US) stop paying attention to normal diplomacy, and start exercising diplomacy through other means.

More pointedly: yes, this is to a large degree the unfortunate return of the “might makes right” school of thought that many people - and pointedly, most European politicians - thought was mostly relegated to history.

I feel like European leaders are panicking because they are realizing they have to actually lead on military and foreign policy rather than being given the binary choice to support the USA or do nothing. This isn't something they've done in generations.

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The date is November 7, 2024, two days after Donald Trump edged out Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election, and already the once-and-future president has announced he will force Ukraine to strike a peace deal with Russia and cede territories the Kremlin has claimed as its own.

Crucially, while it was possible to dismiss Trump’s first term as an aberration — a geopolitical squall that could be weathered — his return would cement the shift in American foreign policy as a fact that can no longer be ignored.

He would push Zelenskyy to cede Crimea and parts of the Donbas to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, a plan first reported by the Washington Post.

“The fact that Congress felt the need to do that and President Biden was willing to sign it tells you that there are real concerns in Washington,” said Brad Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

While the bloc has made some progress, agreeing to pool cash to buy weapons for Ukraine and ramp up arms manufacturing, actually delivering on these polices has been slow because of failures to pay up, disputes over how to raise the money and squabbles about where to spend it.

To make matters worse, even as they struggle to present a common front, Europe’s leaders would likely be coming under pressure from a host of Trump-led policies that might as well be designed to pull them apart.

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I would say not much. That guy is 1 stroke away from not being the president anymore if he does become the president again.