A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.
A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.
Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday night: There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee.
It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And it’s a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire.
“I can’t vote for Trump. He’s a crook. He’s too corrupt,” said Scott Simeone, 64, an independent voter from Amherst, who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. “I voted for him, and I didn’t realize he’s as corrupt as he is.”
Yes you can. Not voting/third party voting helps the Republican party. This is a mathematical fact. Every single person who doesn't vote for Joe Biden and could is supporting Donald Trump. If you're an eligible voter you can only influence the election in one of two directions. There is no "sitting out" option. It does not exist. Not voting does not remove your influence on the results, it simply lessens the impact.
Biden is not my first choice by any means, but this is the reality of the situation. If you think it could be fixed by electing Republicans to power I would be very interested in hearing how the fuck that would work.
Exactly. Spread this message far and wide! While our voting system needs reform and "first past the post" is less democratic than ranked choice and other methods, Donald Trump is an existential threat to our country and needs to be stopped now. Vote. That's our current system! Then we can tackle voting reform, but you can be damn sure that will be impossible under a 2nd Trump presidency. But I know people hate hearing that things take time or can't be done right away...
Oh good, it's this argument again. I've really never heard a statement that is more damaging to a conversation with an intent to sway votership than this one.
A vote for candidate C is not a vote for candidate B, but for the sake of the argument let's assume it is. It's possible to model an election using game theory, and it can be done in a few different ways. First I'm going to try is a 1 dimensional approach from the perspective of candidate A. A vote for candidate A is worth 1 point. A vote for candidate B is worth -1 point. A vote for any other candidate is worth 0 points. This is actually a fairly accurate model of how a winner takes all election system works. I'll also play it from candidate B's perspective to illustrate something.
There are 300 votes for candidate A
There are 340 votes for candidate B
There are 20 votes for candidate C from constituents who claim to be from party A
There are 60 votes for candidate C from constituents who claim to be from party b
Candidate A: -40
Candidate B: 40
Interestingly, people who voted for candidate C do not show up in the final results at all and they hurt/helped each candidate equally. The only people whose votes actually had any real bearing on the election in this model were the people who turned out to vote for candidates A and B. I'll let people draw their own conclusions from this thought experiment.
The real argument to make here however is that Biden is not the lesser of two evils and has in fact done a lot of good for the country in his term, or at least attempted to. The more important thing then voting for Biden is that people show up with an intent to put as many good senators and representatives in office as possible each election until we can get enough people in office to allow them presidential agenda to actually be able to do anything. Also to vote in your local elections for similar reasons.
The only goal for anyone who values what little democracy we have left is that Donald Trump does not get reelected. Period.
The only vote that helps that goal is for Biden.
There's nothing to debate here, unless you're an accelerationist. And in that case I'd just like to remind folks that revolution is brutal, not fun and exciting.
edit: i'm saying ive heard it, not that it's something i agree with
i have heard the argument "with a democrat as president, the left is asleep"
i.e. there were no major protests during biden's presidency that involved burning dumpsters...
That stance only works if the foundations of the government are strong enough to ensure an eventual return to the status quo. We used to be able to safely assume that the pendulum would always swing back.
However we have learned that our foundations are not quite as stable as we all thought. We have learned that it's based on a series of "gentleman agreements" that can just be ignored with no repurcussion.
And the next time the conservatives get to the white house -- at least under the current political climate -- it just might be the spark that launches the US into full-blown fascism. And we're not coming back from that.
We operate in a first past the post voting system. This means you vote for a single candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins the election. A non-vote or 3rd party vote mathematically benefits the minority party by decreasing the number of votes needed to win. The minority party in our electorate is the Republican party.
Nothing is false about what I said, you just don't like it. It has absolutely nothing to do with the party line. If I had my choice Biden wouldn't be the nomination. No candidate is entitled to your vote, but your influence will affect the race whether you want it to or not.
You need to take into account that instead of not voting, you could have voted for the other candidate.
Simple example:
7 voters, 2 candidates, A and B. 3 will vote for A no matter what, 4 oppose A. If 1 voter doesn’t vote, there will be a tie of 3-3. If 2 don’t vote, A will win 3-2. If everyone votes, B will win 4-3.
There's a lot of stupid people in these interviews:
“I can’t vote for Trump. He’s a crook. He’s too corrupt,” said Scott Simeone, 64, an independent voter from Amherst, who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. “I voted for him, and I didn’t realize he’s as corrupt as he is.”
You voted for him in 2016 I might grant ignorance then, but in 2020?
Then there's democrats on the other side turning up their noses at the idea of voting for Biden as the lesser of two evils. This is an existential fight for democracy and people are getting persnickety with fascism at the gates?
I can forgive some Trump voters in 16. A lot of them were just following the time honored script of republicans good, democrats bad, go team. I knew a few that eventually saw it for what it is and had enough character to admit they were wrong.
But that’s pretty damn limited. We knew who he was in 16. There were no surprises for most of us during his presidency. If you then voted for him in 2020 you had excuse. You were just a fucking idiot.
If you vote for him in 24. You’re not only an idiot you particularly hate America and you’re a joke.
Shit, there was a second where even I thought that Trump might make a good president. I was disavowed of that thought very quickly, but it existed in this progressive’s head for a second. I can forgive 2016 for a lot of people, but I cannot for 2020 or 2024.
I voted for him in '16. Mostly to thumb my nose at establishment and how much I hate Hillary. I honestly thought the power houses in D.C. were going to wrangle him and keep him on a short leash.
Wow, did that turn into a nightmare. (For the record, he lost big in my state, MA.) And obviously I did not vote for the Cheeto chimp in '20.
I voted third party for the same reason. I thought Trump would do so many stupid things that the courts would actually put up guard rails and we would see some limits to the expanded power that the executive branch has been creeping into over the past few decades.
Remember that he didn't actually try to overthrow democracy until after the 2020 election. There are plenty of other reasons not to vote for him, but I can understand how for some people that could be the last straw.
Would you like to know which state has the most number of registered republicans? It's California. California just happens to be the most populous state with only 25% of it's populous being Republican. Voting absolutely matters and despite California being predominantly Democrat controlled, if regular people don't vote, these racist country destroying inbred fucks will.
Yeah, proud Californian here whose last Republican vote went to Schwarzenegger. Never another Republican ever again. I refuse to let this state become a complete shit hole in allowing Republicans and Christian Fascists to settle here safely. Your vote is never going to be worth it. Just leave.
Given the choice, GOP primary voters will overwhelmingly choose the bigoted dumbass who has never won the national popular vote, and they'll be confounded when he loses it again a third time.
Almost like being an arrogant stupid loudmouth chode is unpopular? No way to know.
As I read the first sentence of your comment, I thought i was still reading the article summary. My jaw dropped! How I wish we would see professional journalists laying out the hard truth like that!
Look I know that Trump would be much worse for majority of Americans than Biden would be, but most democrats don't want to vote for Biden either. But they still will. Just like Trump voters would rather keep it republican than go Democrat, even if that means they don't want Trump.
I'm still disappointed and quite honestly hurt that I have to vote for Biden. But here we are. Americans on both sides bitterly disappointed and feel like it's over for America if either candidate wins. There is no good candidate. I'm surprised there hasn't been a nationwide revolt yet. Americans have been voting in the below average red morale since Trump and Hillary were candidates. Except maybe the die hard avid Maga trumpers. They're the only ones that are voting in the green morale. And they make up a small minority of Americans.
Nazi party in Germany only controlled 1/3 of the vote in the elections that got Hitler into power. Nazis weren't popular in Germany. But they were happy with their leader.
If 8% of his former voters have gone never trump that sinks him in pretty much every swing state. Some of these were decided by just a few thousand votes in the past two elections, and 1% margins or less.
Trump is a symptom of the disease that will never die. We all have to keep fighting, voting, discussing. Late stage capitalism will attempt to silence us all.
We have to hope that enough of the left will suck it up and vote for Biden. I get it guys, he's got a lot of issues. I don't particularly like him, but if we want our country to continue being more-or-less free, we don't have a choice. It's that or prepare for a civil war, and I know I don't particularly want to die on the mason-dixon line
Thank god there are still sane Republicans. I know MAGATs are the loud minority of their party, but it is disheartening seeing some of the "real" Republicans being ok with voting for someone who literally said they will be a dictator. Not to mention the fact that trump has also been using nazi talking points.
Disclaimer: I am not Republican nor do I agree with their "policies", but I know people who vote R just because the politicians pretend to present Christian values and fight for small businesses.