1y ago

Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election: Exit poll

www.politico.eu Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election: Exit poll

Wilders wants to ban mosques and leave the EU. ‘Voters are fed up,’ he says.

The anti-Islam, euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders is projected to be the shock winner of the Dutch election.

In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is set to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament — more than double the number it secured in the 2021 election, according to exit polls.

Frans Timmermans’ Labour-Green alliance is forecast to take second place, winning 25 seats — a big jump from its current 17. Dilan Yeşilgöz, outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s successor as head of the center-right VVD, suffered heavy losses and is on course to take 24 seats, 10 fewer than before, according to the updated exit poll by Ipsos for national broadcaster NOS.

A win for Wilders will put the Netherlands on track — potentially — for a dramatic shift in direction, after Rutte’s four consecutive centrist governments. The question now, though, is whether any other parties are willing to join Wilders to form a coalition. Despite emerging as the largest party, he will lack an overall majority in parliament.

165 comments

What the fuck is happening to the world?
- Far right extremists claim easy solutions to complex problems. With housing etc pricea going through the roof it's easy to demonize foreigners etc.
  Look what happened in Germany with hyper inflation.
  
  If you look at the projections for muslims living throughout Europe over the next 30 years with current levels of immigration you can see there will be a Muslim majority in many parts of Europe. I’m not saying that’s a problem necessarily but it will be a big cultural shift if that takes place. There is some concern that many muslims have followed their holy doctrine in moving towards sharia law. I’m not trying to be islamaphopic it’s just quite difficult to discern between the muslims who want to live in peace and live a western lifestyle and those who want to live under sharia law and those who want to live under some hybrid system and what that might look like. These are the outcomes whether you want to accept it or not. Yes it’s complex and difficult.
- This is the first generation with worse prospects than the previous one. Wealth inequality is growing, and robber barons are back. Climate change is making any prospects even worse.
  Combine that with a communication revolution (social media, to be exact) which allows anyone to pretty much target anyone else with any message they feel like, means disinformation pushing narratives is everywhere. And not to forget, there people in charge of these platforms are among the aforementioned robber barons.
  It's easy to offer simple solutions to these problems and push disinformation to people who don't have the knowledge, time or energy to debunk everything and think deeply about things, since they're busy slaving away to put food on their tables, struggling to build a future, and looking for solutions. And simple answers give people a sense of control or explanation over their difficult situation.
  It's why I have completely removed myself from every social media platform there is, except this one and I'm only on here intermittently.
  
  True, but the generation that tends to vote far right is the boomer generation - it's the generation that failed to pass on rising prosperity and gave us the climate crisis.
  
  It seems you are more equipped to deal with the disinformation on social media than most of us. Although I understand the desire to step away from the fray, a mind like yours is sorely needed in times like this.
- Good question. But honestly you just got to look at history for the answer. Far-right extremism often do better when it's hard times like we have right now.
- Amongst other things: Russia.
  https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Trolls-Frontlines-Russias-Information/dp/1632461293
  And in this specific case, it's literally Russia: https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/19/leaked-documents-show-connections-pvv-russia -- this is often the case for far-right European parties. Russia supports them quite significantly. This is one of the thousand reasons why Russia needs to be stopped and seriously discouraged in Ukraine. I have some hope that now that Putin has played his hand, his influence in European parties will start to diminish. But it's not looking good yet.
  
  Geert Wilders is a 100% israeli puppet. At 17 years old Geert went to live as an illegal occupier for 2 years in the West-Bank for the israelis. He has visited israel at least 40 times the last 25 years, more than once a year.
  A quote from an NOS article about Geert Wilders life as a colonist: (Dutch article)
  The later founder of the PVV resides in the West Bank, territory occupied by Israel since 1967. "Although I prefer to call it 'liberated territory'."
  
  Look up what Stephen harper is president of right now.
  I don't think this is Russia. Its ex Canadian PM
- We are unfortunately in one of those moments in history where far right authoritarianism is troublingly in vogue.
- The right has a cohesive strategy for getting and keeping an animated base, while the libs are focusing on maintaining a status quo that people hate and are creating voter apathy.
  
  Just to be clear liberal doesn't really make that much sense in Europe as it dose in the US. Liberals are mostly on the right side of politics while in the US it's on the left. So if you where to talk with European people then they would talk about the left or the right. In my country for instance the only party that is truly liberal is all the way to the right. The left is socialists mostly and while the US have some socialists the democrats in the US is much more to the right than most Europe "left" would be.
  
  In this election, the "libs" are the VVD who, as a socialist (GL/PvdA) I'd hate to say but, are the most right wing reasonable party. You cannot project American political discourse and concepts on Dutch politics.
- Capitalism makes living harder, populist fascism fools voters, cycle repeats
- Everyone thinks that Russia became hostile with war in Ukraine. They were already fighting war with the West for years and it is bringing fruits. It is the war of disinformation and unlike the traditional hot war, they are very good at it and it is now bringing fruits.
- It's going fascist.
- Other parties haven't taken any called for measures when it comes to immigration, now far-right is reaping the benefits.
  It's pretty shit but sorta expected if you just stubbornly avoid addressing the issues people have.
  
  Populism never addresses the issues people have, it preys on their insecurity and creates issues.
- Social media, mostly.
- They’ll probably have 16 parties getting seats and many refuse to work with him. He’s not going to be prime minister or anything.
  
  Sure, but that only works up to a certain point. When they are ignored, voters will get even more annoyed and he might grow towards next election and become impossible to ignore. The same is happening with Vlaams Belang in Vlaanderen.
  
  I like your optimism, but VVD and NSC are probably going to try to work with Wilders.
- Bist du faschistisch?
  
  Please don't confuse The Netherlands with Germany. In NL they speak Dutch ("Netherlandish"), in DE they speak Deutsch (German).
  Confusing? Yes. But it is what it is.
  (And don't get me started about Holland vs. The Netherlands :) )
- Internet + deliberate misinformation (lies) = broken democracy.
- Most people don't understand politics, and think "guy talking louder than everyone is my favorite guy!"
  
  Remember that one of the notable reasons W won his first presidency is that a lot of people thought he'd be a cool guy to have a beer with.
- NWO technology it's at the head while all of the world still believe representative democracy it's still possible.
- Unpopular take incoming: The Left is principally made up of people who are Agreeable, so they want to help others rather than win resources over others. What happened is the Left are unable to draw lines and limits on certain issues for fear of causing pain. The end result is this alienates a lot of swing voters, often in the working classes.
  The Left has always been a haven of the middle classes. They become so preoccupied with calling working class people bigots / stupid, that they forget that the working classes often feel the impact of politics more strongly and are more incentivised to vote.
  This is an issue with the left deviating from reason and reality due to an increasing population of younger left wing supporters who have barely spent any time in physical reality, being the most online generation yet. Some of the physical realities that affect the largely natively white working class population in western european countries simply do not occur to these middle class, left wing people.
  Migrant workers competing for jobs and class (being told they are better than you and being passed over on jobs by them), eco friendly and green societal initiatives making things often less functional and more expensive, etc etc.
  One could blame the ruling classes for some of these elements but truth be told, the bottom half of the middle classes start feeling these effects, they start to see a different perspective too.
  Politics has always, and will always follow Economics.
  
  The left isn't calling working class people bigots. We call people bigots who exhibit xenophobic behavior. If they are working class, they're being a working class bigot. The working class needs solidarity, not right wing propaganda.
  
  So the issue is that we haven't given neoliberals enough after giving them everything?
- When the going gets tough the tough get going... Economic crisis, inflation, unemployment, keep choking people with taxes "for welfare" and this is the result. It was politicians and economists who should have studied history and learned before making all this happen, now we can't blame lay people.
  
  Right it’s welfare making people poor, not corporations pocketing nearly all economic growth for the last few decades.

The slide towards far-right fascism continues...
- Don't worry, the headline is too sensational. (Which is a pet peeve of mine anyway: headlines should be objective. I can make up my own mind please)
  He didn't win a majority. He won't form a goverment. If he does, he will be powerless in the coalition. If he does get to make laws, they won't pass the senate (called "1ste kamer" in NL). And if he does, the government will fall anyway (which is a Dutch tradition anyway).
  So a lot of 'outs' :)
  No worries!
  
  Only your last one seems valid. Dutch coalitions aren't very stable. The only stable factor of the last 12 years has recently left politics.
  The question is indeed who is willing to form a coalition government. The most likely option is PVV (far right), VVD (neoliberal), and NSC (Christian democrats), of the latter can convince their voters they can accept the far right.
  
  Yeah...but...FPTP.

Geert Wilder wins Dutch election
35 of the 150 seats in parliament
Let's please stop using FPTP language to describe very non-FPTP systems and outcomes.
- Agreed “win” is too simplistic. Still good shot at forming government though. I’m not familiar with the Dutch system, but, even in systems with proportional representation, the plurality winner usually gets first shot at forming government, and by convention usually does form government. They need 76 seats to govern and are more than halfway there with 37.
  
  This is how we do it. But it might be difficult for him to form an alliance, since all other relevant parties have serious issues with parts of his party program.
  Mostly because his program is extremely rightwing but also extremely leftwing at the same time. And financially its all a big foggy mess.
  
  I don't know how the Dutch system works, but some time ago a pro-Russian party won like 30-40% of seats in Latvia, but every other party joined together against them. And they couldn't do shit even though they had the biggest number of seats. If it's not 50%+1 - it doesn't matter.
- Also the Dutch political system relies very heavily on coalitions and the "polder model" since no party can ever win a majority of seats in their House of Representatives.
  
  Asking out of ignorance, but why would no party ever be able to win a majority? Are there just too many parties to allow for one to have that much control?
  
  Read the whole wiki, and all I can tell is it's a label some politician came up with for simply compromising on a common goal to push it through when multiple parties overlap at least partially in agreement of that goal. Nothing beyond that, doesn't say how, give guidelines or a framework. I guess it's just a label for being ok with no majority party.
- We have had to stand months of the Spanish opposition leader saying he "has won the election" because he leads the most voted party, even though it was impossible for him to form a coalition that would give him the government (the other right wing parties are either centralist, decentralist or independentist, and will veto each other). Even some international media bought this narrative and eagerly presented the idea that there was going to be a change of government.
- What does FPTP mean?
  
  First past the post - the party with the most votes 'wins'. It's in contrast to a range of other systems that rely on proportionality or preferential voting to ensure that the party or parties with majority support wins.
  For example, imagine a scenario where there are 10 constituencies electing a representative by FPTP. In each of those 10 constituencies, the result is identical as follows:
  Nazi - 40%
  Liberal - 30%
  Socialist - 20%
  Conservative - 10%
  Under FPTP, the Nazi would be the top candidate in every constituency, and so win 10 out of 10 seats and have total control of the legislature, even though 60% of people voted anti-Nazi. This is the system in the UK and US.
  Under a proportional system, you would allocate the seats in proportion to the votes cast - so 4 for the Nazis, 3 for the Liberals, 2 for the Socialists and 1 for the Conservatives. The non-Nazis would then have a legislative majority (6 out of 10 seats) that reflects how people actually voted, and could form an anti-Nazi coalition government. This is the system in the Netherlands or Germany for example.
  Under a preferential system, you still elect seats on a constituency basis, but you make sure that the winning candidate is preferred by a majority of voters in the constituency - either by having multi-round elections or by having voters rank candidates instead of just voting for one. In a simplified system, you could rule out all but the top two candidates (in this case, Nazi and Liberal), and then have a second round of votes two weeks later for voters to decide between those two candidates to represent their seat. This tends to favour more moderate candidates so it's likely under such a system that the Liberal would generally defeat the Nazi in the second round in most seats. This is the system in France.
  There are also hybrid systems like Single Transferrable Vote, which simultaneously achieve proportionality and preferential voting - this is used in Ireland.
  
  First past the post
  
  First Past The Post, which is more typically called 'plurality' in the US. Each person votes for only one candidate; the candidate with the most votes wins.
- It's normal language where I live and we've always had a multi-party democracy without FPTP

He only got 25% of the vote and it's a consolidation of other right wing votes, so there is no right wing majority.
So it's not much different than earlier elections, but now it's concentrated in his party, making him the largest.
He will not be able to form a government without making concessions. And making concessions will lose him voters.
So yeah, interesting times, but I am not worried.
- The headline seems much more sensational than the numbers lead me to believe.
  
  In most countries "winning" the election implies having a majority.
  In coalition countries like ours, it only means becoming the biggest party.
  Hence why the headline might lead people to a wrong conclusion.
  Practically speaking, it's more important which potential coalition has a majority. And the parties on the right don't have a clear majority, nor do the left parties.
  So it will either be a center-right or center-left coalition.
  Center-right will be attempted first, since we customarily let the largest party initiate, but it will be quite difficult since we have two chambers and different parties on the right are big in different chambers.
  If he fails, center-left has a clear majority in both chambers with the same parties.
  Edit: need to correct a mistake. Center-left also doesn't have a clear majority in both chambers. Two of the big parties in this election have very few seats in the other chamber.
  But not a problem, we often have coalitions that don't have a majority in the Senate. Our House (this election) is more decisive and the Senate more facilitating.
- If he won the election, why would he not be able to form a government?
  
  Because he doesn't hold a majority. In the Netherlands parties must form a coalition to govern. It might be difficult to convince other parties to join the coalition given his stances. However, I do think Geert Wilders will become our prime minister. I'm very much hoping he'll fuck up, the government will fall and a more reasonable person will take over.

I guess netherlands was like, "you know, things have been going too well here"
- Things have been going shit here actually, and blaming minorities for a country's problems is still a surefire way to win votes. As a dutch person I'm sad, embarrassed, and scared.
  
  "Going to shit", really?
  NL is one of the best countries in the world. Yes we have some challenges, e.g. stikstof or crappy goverment (e.g.toeslagenaffaire), but common, don't be soo fatalistic.
  And yes, live is getting very expensive. Which is the result of the late-game capitalistic piramid scheme we live in. That sucks, sure. But that is not solvable any time soon. Especially not by NL :D
- This is happening because things haven't been going well. Same can be seen all over Europe. Shit times and whether for a good reason or not, immigration issues have become a big issue in the minds of the people. Established moderate parties have avoided addressing that issue and that's why far-right parties, who keep banging on about being strict on immigration and immigrants, keep winning a bigger share.
  Moderates are handing far-right votes by ignoring what people are concerned about. I know it's a dilemma to parties who don't consider it an issue (do you really want to go in on an issue you don't believe is an issue), but people think it's an issue and feel like they aren't being heard.
- the Netherlands has been on a steady decline, and housing especially has been a massive issue
  the netherlands is a good country because we are still benefitting off of our past, but we are not improving

People need to understand that in a democracy, winning the plurality of the votes is not the same as winning the election. If no-one will work with him, he will not be in government.
- In a republic*, ftfy. Republics and majority rule in general are not at all so democratic. The vast majority of the population has entirely no input in government.
  
  Republic, you say? King Willem-Alexander has entered the chat*
  
  The Netherlands isn't a republic and republic basically just means "not a monarchy". Whether it's democratic or not is an entirely different matter.
  Hell, North Korea is a republic. So is Finland. You can be a democracy without being a republic and a republic without being a democracy.
  
  Yeah but they're still democratic systems.

If you're gonna ban Islam, at least ban every other religion at the same time so you don't look like a racist.
- That would make him a leftist though
  
  Yeah, it would.
- Why do you think they give a shit about looking like a racist?
- Even atheism. And agnosticism. If you have a single opinion at all on theism you're out.

Not elect fascists worldwide (challenge impossible )
- What we really need now is a nice World War one.
  A nice large draft to cull the world's population and make sure the working class appreciates how good they have it to not be in a muddy trench.
  
  Odd war to pick given it led to a rise in fascism
  
  For effing sake, that is a stupid idea that is so widespread.
  Beware of the broken window fallacy.

Wilders wants to ban mosques
That's cool, as long as we ban churches, cathedrals, synagogues, and temples at the same time.
I really didnt know this guy was still around, he hasn't been making the world headlines so much in recent years.
- Don't forget gurdwaras, stupas, and wats.
- Oppressing people's religious beliefs is not "cool."
  People will still practice those beliefs while they are being oppressed. It won't create an atheist utopia. It'll just create more terrorism, crime, and discrimination.
  
  Ban religion it will be religious groups throwing down the governement.
  
  Limiting what structures can be built/open and where isn't oppression, it's standard government policy everywhere on earth. People can still believe whatever they want.
  Only discriminatory if it favors one group over another, so ban them all.

Why do they all have weird fucking hair?
- At this point, it's not even weird. I'm just glad they aren't tarnishing any look I would miss. I mean, in an alternate universe, I could see myself rocking a Chaplin moustache. But they can have the thinning, wiry, bizarrely-styled blond look all to themselves.

"Politics of me" beats "politics of we" once again.
- More like "politics of being to dumb to see further than the tip of if my own nose".

Aww....the rest of the world is going through their own Trump phase now.
- Shit's contagious, like covid
- You mean the Berlusconi phase, maybe.
- It's really weird to see Republicans doing poorly in the US while the far right makes gains in Europe
- I don't think it's a phase in the short term unfortunately. The world shifted too far into PC culture, 'acceptance' to the point of segregating anyone with a differing opinion, cancelling anyone with an accusation against them prior to any sort of conviction etc and I really think it just pushed all the people who were quietly racist/sexist/whateverist to a point they are loud and standing up for what they think is right. It's created a shift of what you can and can't say backwards and suddenly a lot of people who still hold these opinions albeit very frowned upon felt empowered by seeing their opinions on TV, internet etc and began to speak up.
  Just seems like the world is doomed to run in a cycle. I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

the world is falling to fascism. Fuck this goddamn planet just smite us already jesus fucking christ
- If the conservatives want for Jesus to come down himself to smite us, THIS is how they will get them to come down himself to smite us. I hate how this happens

Fuck.
- Don't worry. He didn't win the majority. Headline is too sensational.
  The Netherlands has always been a centrist, or even socialist, country. That won't change.
  In fact, this could be a blessing in disguise: let him try to form a goverment. He won't. And if he does, he will fail making policies/laws that are too far right anyway. And then after a few years, the coalition will fall apart. And we will vote again. And then he will lose this temporary win again.
  I am 0% worried.
  
  I'm quite sure he will fail. Still worried.

The worlds sick of liberalism, so their solution is....fascism.
🫣

This is the best summary I could come up with:
In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is set to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament — more than double the number it secured in the 2021 election, according to exit polls.
Dilan Yeşilgöz, outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s successor as head of the center-right VVD, suffered heavy losses and is on course to take 24 seats, 10 fewer than before, according to the updated exit poll by Ipsos for national broadcaster NOS.
A win for Wilders will put the Netherlands on track — potentially — for a dramatic shift in direction, after Rutte’s four consecutive centrist governments.
“This exit poll is historic; it is the biggest shift we have ever seen in the Netherlands,” political scientist Tom van der Meer told national broadcaster NOS.
And Pieter Omtzigt, whose newly formed party is projected to win 20 seats, has previously ruled out joining forces with Wilders at all, saying his anti-Islam policies go against freedoms of expression and religion that are enshrined in the Dutch constitution.
She ended the short speech thanking her team and supporters, and left the stage to the sound of Dua Lipa’s Dance the Night followed by Avicii’s Wake me Up.
The original article contains 1,049 words, the summary contains 202 words. Saved 81%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
- I bet I can do even better: PVV got 30 of 150 seats. They might be able to use these for something or they might not.

I'm assuming that the clothing and appearance copying Trump are on purpose.
- He has looked like that far before trump meant something outside of the US.
  
  Gotcha. Thanks for the info!
- Nope. He has been wearing that for years.
  
  Wow. That's actually surprising

what does that mean for policy changes in the Netherlands? without parliamentary majority, can he make any real changes?
- Depends on what compromises he needs to make in order to form a government. The 3rd and 4th biggest parties are also right wing, so I don't think he needs to make many, unfortunately.

Government has been ignoring voters for years, executing a globalist agenda and forcing the worlds strictest environmental policies. This created a populist undercurrent that’s now surfacing.
- Bullshit, over half the people voted on the government at all times. "Globalist agenda" is conspiracy nut territory and the environmental policies that were introduced over the years don't do shit.
  Y'all are just fascists.

165 comments