Xi denies 2027 Taiwan invasion plans, but analysts say island should remain vigilant

yeah we heard that story before and we all know how good it went for ukraine...
So taiwan should definitely keep arming up and be ready for a fucking invasion.
- Friendly reminder that CPC-KMT relations were downright friendly. The tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait today are a direct product of the DPP's policy.
  The DPP has received sizable backing and support from the US state-funded National Endowment for Democracy. Oops.
  
  lol

- He could've said "Why would I wait until 2027? I could invade it tomorrow if I had wanted"
- He would never say it. He would have said "we don't comment on internal affairs".

It's gonna be Jan 1, 2028, isn't it?
- Or 2026

I recall people laughing at the US warning Ukraine that a Russian invasion was imminent.
- In hindsight, it was imminent since they annexed Krimea almost 10 years ago.
- Considering Russia's red lines were made very clear (and were crossed), I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.
  China's red lines were also very clear, but then Pelosi decided to stomp right over them anyway.
  It's rather concerning how today we're more concerned about protecting ideology than we are about maintaining world peace.
  
  China doesn't get to dictate what Taiwan does.
  Russia doesn't get to dictate what Ukraine does.
  Very simple. The only ideology being pushed here is the delusion that one country should be able to dictate the actions of another to placate the ego of an authoritarian leader. Implying Russia or China were forced into doing anything is some DARVO bullshit.
  
  The only way to not have crossed Russia's supposed red lines would have been for Ukraine to never exist in the first place.
  No matter what was done Putin would have found some way to justify his invasion.
  
  Tankie you for sharing your opinion. Always love to hear the latest take on geopolitics from a brand new account.
  
  !
  It's rather concerning how today we're more concerned about protecting ideology than we are about maintaining world peace.
  !<
  Agreed.

Among all the other very good reasons this would be a completely fucking stupid and morally bankrupt thing to do (doesn't mean it won't happen), this would have a devastating impact globally. You thought the chip shortage was bad during COVID? That was caused by just a change in demand from people's shift in spending habits. Can you imagine the impact of China trying to invade the country that produces 60% of the entire world supply of chips? When it comes to advanced chips they produce 90% (source).
Just...fuck right off please. Nobody wants you here anyway.
- They produce 90% of the world's advanced chips more out of systematic neglect than out of any technological gap.
  Intel floundered years of technological supremacy because they were run by an incompetent manager type. They refused to run a foundry model for decades.
  Samsung has completely lost competitiveness and the South Korean government is happy to let them do whatever because South Korea is more like the Samsung government of Korea.
  SMIC can't get access to EUV machines, but even then they're already knocking on the doors of Intel's current process.
  
  Can I read more about this somewhere? My understanding was that it would be extremely difficult to the point of impracticality to compete with TSMC or would at least take decades to match them in terms of process and scale. I don't really know much about chip manufacturing though.
- But have you considered, that the existence of an independent Taiwan is an insult to Xi's ego? And that's what really matters here.
  /s obviously

Anyone seriously contemplating whether China would invade Taiwan needs to look at a map of Taiwan. There is no feasible invasion of Taiwan without millions of casualties: it would be a fight infinitely worse than Vietnam. Taiwan is the perfect fortress, with urban combat surrounded by densely-forested mountains and decades of buildup explicitly designed by the KMT to block a Chinese invasion. It's also an island separated by more than a hundred kilometers of open ocean. The KMT understands this, as does the CPC.
The only practical military option available to the CPC is a naval blockade like the US did to Cuba, but the KMT was actively trying to stimulate trade with China in the 2008-2016 period to make a blockade economically infeasible. Today, China imports more goods from Taiwan than from any other country in the world.
All this talk of war is fearmongering and posturing to justify increased defense spending at the cost of a lasting and sustainable peace.
- Russia with a population of 140 million is almost at 400k casualties in Ukraine. Do you think China's leader with a population of 1.4 billion would mind 4 million losses?
  
  It's a little different invading a flat semi-unprepared country compared to a literal nightmare fortress island that is Taiwan.
- Imagine if Taiwan invades China instead