1mo ago

What do you think the future of Windows is?

46 comments

More forced AI, more integrated cloud services, more failed patches causing data loss.
Oh, you meant the future and not this year so far? My bad.

People in large will keep using it because they've no clue what a computer is. They just recognise symbols and which order to click them.
The product keeps on getting worse.
People will get angry and look for political "solutions" to their own unwillingness to learn.
As a result all of networking and computing will be made worse, with lots of red tape, solidifying an oligarchy, penalizing the alternatives.
Just like how there were 1000s of car makers in the 20th century, but now only a handfull. Legislating cars to be shitty DRM-ed smartphones on wheels.
- In the defense of end users, they got stuff to do and can't be bothered to take the time which will make no obvious difference to what they need to do.
  The average person can't even describe how a toaster works, let alone anything even slightly more complicated.
  And these users have ~~skillets~~ skill sets in other areas - I don't expect an accountant to know how a computer works, any more than they expect me to understand accountancy or finance.
  
  I blame management that doesn’t listen to or hire qualified IT people. The average office worker has no say in what platforms or tools are used at a business.
  
  Also in defense of end users, they are forced to use whatever OS their IT department provides.
  The few users that would prefer Linux for instance, aren't allowed to use it because it deviates from the company standard and makes things harder to maintain (security, backup, and so on).
  
  which will make no obvious difference to what they need to do.
  It would make a whole lot of difference. But it's like learning math, or basic finance indeed. Sooo useful, improves your life tremendously, yet most people can't be bothered.
  Tragedy of the commons.

enshittification
- Well, the future is here now.
  
  Things can always be shittier...
- "My prediction... is pain " -Muhammad Ali

Losing market share to Linux.

Trying to turn every computer into just a dummy terminal that accesses a cloud server, rather than using the local resources
- you mean 365 cloud pc?
  
  Yep, with no way to opt out

Forget the cloud. What if the ad is the operating system? Windows 12 will be using a distributed architecture, running on top of global ad networks. Every advertisement medium (TV, radio, web, video) will include an x86 interpreter that runs Windows services (ARM support will come later).
The same tracking tech used to target you with that ad will be used to log you in to your Azure Copilot 365 OneDrive account, so you can access your files and applications seamlessly without having to remember a password or pin. When your smart toilet is showing you an ad for Draft Kings to earn your flush credit, you'll be able to check your emails, connect with the fam, or ask Copilot for assistance.

Cloud. Windows is going to be sold as remotely accessible virtual machine hosted on Azure. The change will first take place in government offices, then in companies, and finally (after people get used to it at work) among consumers.
Why would gov and enterprise like it? Because of:
safety - all enterprise data will be stored on Azure servers and won't ever leave it. It makes preventing data leakage so much easier
maintenance - software updates can be applied even outside of working hours, Microsoft could launch VMs and update at any time
ease of upgrade - need better specs? you don't need to buy better hardware anymore, you just buy better subscription. Hardware won't become obsolete anymore that quickly
Consumers will also like it. No need to pay hundreds of dollars for new GPU when you just want to play newly released game. Also, all your data accessible from anywhere in the world.
And why Microsoft would like it? Kinda obvious, it would be even harder for users to quit a subscription, they will be tied to ecosystem even more
- We are basically already there with Windows 365. It's the comeback of the thin-client and the main frame. Everything old is new again.
- I agree with the first part but simplify the "why they'd do it":
  it's easier to choose with nice marketing
  corruption.
  being able to externalize IT.
  As for the rest, from what I've seen:
  Web infrastructure relies on open source. Military critical OSs are a custom from open source. Security is best working from open source.
  You can pay the same maintenance fee for open source programmers for chasing your targets, leading to Ubuntu, opensuse, LibreOffice teams.
  upgrade is debatable. In the end i'd guess you're more often better off with your hardware or national servers, but that's related to security.
  Consumers will like it, then enshitificaction. Also your data anywhere in the world.

I think they're going to need to back pedal some ideas. Ideas that are "for your benefit" such as, your user folder linked to one drive (so you'll always have a backup) is also a cash-grab ("oh, you only have 5 GB of space. We'll sell you more!"). This needs to be opt-in.
Windows 7's market share has surprisingly increased to about 9.61% in 2025. This rise is likely due to users hesitating to upgrade to Windows 11 as support for Windows 10 is ending.
You can say that's only 10%, but how much is that in lost revenue?
- your user folder linked to one drive (so you’ll always have a backup) is also a cash-grab
  That's actually illegal bundling behavior, something they wouldn't dare do if Biden was still president and Lina Khan was still head of the FTC.
  I think actually that the future of Windows won't be so dire post Trump. There's no way the pro-monopoly brain rot survives this admin, and people will soon start to realize that the billionaires, although easy targets, are just a symptom of lax regulation rather than the root cause of the enshitiffication apocalypse of the mid 2020s.
  
  something they wouldn't dare do if Biden was still president and Lina Khan was still head of the FTC
  Pretty sure the user folder has been onedrive for ages, including during Biden's presidency.
  Not everything is about politics.

I think it’s days in home computers are numbered.
Most of the things an average person needs can be done through the web browser. You only need a Chromebook, phone or tablet.
Linux has suddenly become a viable option for gaming. This has been the one thing that kept many away from using Linux.
I don’t really see why anyone would want to use Windows for their home PC, other than familiarity. It doesn’t offer anything you can’t find better elsewhere.

Drink an activation soda to continue booting.

Corps will keep using it, but I feel like a sizeable group will find alternatives like Linux, MacOS and even Chrome OS as Chromebook kids age out of school.

Barebones OS with ads and a premium subscription for anything that makes it remotely useful

Thin client for their online services. At least that's what MS wants.

Microsoft pushes cloud and AI with increasingly negative side-effects. Eventually, EU regulation steps in to require offline-capable OS with fair and obvious choice. Microsoft tries to argue security, but ultimately fails.
Microsoft continues to push and connect their services as one, with synergy effects. Eventually EU regulation and prosecution steps in, requiring a neutral OS that must not pre-install software or point to other products in OS settings and apps, etc. Integrations must be openly standardized first, before implementing their own.
Despite all this, and despite a move from EU and EU-national institutions to sovereignty through shared open source solutions, Microsoft retains their strong/prevalent market position because the market as a whole is not as strategic and concerned, and Microsoft products like office, onedrive, Teams, and their other business software and services remain a predominant and grab-first choice, and the security promise of big enterprise software, battle-tested, with strong established auth etc remains a big selling point for them.

There have been multiple rumours of Windows 12 being basically EdgeOS and just a gateway to the web with all apps and compute in the cloud. Some articles I've read and videocasts I've watched say "Microsoft have realised it's not about the hardware, but the software and selling subscriptions and services". So, from my very limited and uneducated view, windows 12 would be the perfect vessel for doing just that. But they can only do it if there is good internet in the majority of the world, so my prediction is windows 12 will come in ~2032 or so.

Same as usual. Companies will still use it because there is no "alternative," and I'll keep on using Linux at home and macOS at work. I grew up with Windows 3.1, it was fun, but I haven't used Windows for the past 15 years (the last one being Windows 7 IIRC and it was a shitshow to program and administrate) and I'm a happy man now that I left that crap behind me.

bleak

Subscriptions. More cloud-based services. Office moving to an entirely web-based product. Continuing decline of whatever quality is left. Nadella is only interested in enterprise money like HP and IBM. Expect to see more abandonment of consumer-focused products, like Xbox.
If he had any balls, he’d split the company up, rather than letting so many products die on the vine.

As the world outside increasingly turns into a social and ecological hellscape, people will want to look at it less and less, and the time spent peering through windows will diminish. Eventually, the existence of a portal to a realm outside their bleak cave will be forgotten to time and memory, leaving behind only pale indoor light and stale indoor air.
- That's what the room sprays are for.

There’s still a lot that only really works on Windows, and also a lot of people who don’t care enough to install a different OS than the one that came with the machine. I think the future holds more of the same, including continued enshittification. One day, Windows will be irrelevant, but I doubt it’ll be anytime soon.
- Most of their money comes from business. On the one hand, there’s the argument that business owners will notice that most of the tools they use these days are actually web apps and that you don’t need anything more than a browser to use them and therefore will have no problem moving away from Windows. On the other hand…inertia is real and people tend to equate value and cost. My brother is a senior IT person and he’s been a linux specialist for almost all of his career. Until the day that a company he worked at got new leadership and they insisted on moving everything to windows and retraining all the IT staff because “nothing that’s free could possibly be good or secure”.
  For some people, the fact that Windows costs money will absolutely be seen as a plus.

The PC OS market is saturated and has been for years with Microsoft dominating the market since mid 1990's.
They were smart enough to realize the market was tapped out a long time ago and have worked aggressively to transform the entire organization from an OS provider into a SaaS provider that also happens make the dominant PC OS. Windows is slowly becoming just a funnel to chain you to the Microsoft "ecosystem" and make it easier to sell you more of their services. Good business decision but shitty deal for the customer.
That said, one of the major selling points for Windows has always been backward compatibility. Enterprise customers like to keep running their ancient software and some of them will pay exorbitant licensing fees to keep doing that.

It'll lose a lot of relevance. Casual users will move to smartphones and tablets, more experienced ones will move to Linux, and Linux gatekeepers will move to "the next big thing" once they no longer can control the user experience of others (just because a developer doesn't use Neovim and Hyperland, does not mean they're a fake developer).

Nice try Satya.

It has a lot of momentum, so it will continue to dominate. But I wonder if it will decline over the long term as Linux continues to improve. Similar to how smartphones barely differentiate themselves from one another these days (compared to the past) maybe operating systems will have a similar fate. Maybe I’m a bit naive, but perhaps Linux will eventually have all the stability and ease of use of Windows, while also offering privacy, customization, and open-source benefits so there will be no real reason to use windows and the split will be more even.
Maybe... eventually...
- honestly, i think linux is there. like, at this point, i don't think it's linux's own lack of merits holding it back, but solely the lack of support from software companies.

More subscription service pushing. Windows isn't a source of revenue growth for MS, it's a cheerleader. Lost subscription revenue for Windows on servers to Linux. MS SQL couldn't stop MySQL, MariaDB, PostreSQL, etc. Games for Window Live and paid online gaming failed on PC. Windows Store has been a decade and a half dud. Gamepass looks stagnant and Xbox hardware in decline. Windows Phone failed - big reason Windows Store failed and no presence as a TV OS anymore besides the declining Xbox
MS wants products where users are continuously monetized. The software storefronts haven't worked out like they wanted so focus on subscriptions and advertising. Azure, OneDrive, O365, Copilot, Gamepass less focused on Xbox hardware, ... whatever else they can come up with. Windows will advertise them sacrificing user satisfaction for Windows
For MS it may be the right move. Don't think there's political willpower for trying again to compete with Android and iOS for mobile. Don't think they'd even manage TV against Roku let alone Android TV or big TV makers like Samsung with Tizen. Apple would have to screw up hard with MacOS for those users to switch to Windows rather than sticking Mac or go to iPad's. Android has a desktop cooking with an eventually graphics accelerated Debian VM. Linux in general still on the multi-decade nibbling towards the mainstream along with software like Blender, Krita, LibreOffice
OS reccuring fees is a server and enterprise workstation support contract thing. Trying to do that to consumer desktop would kill it pretty quick. Windows is in a hard place of being a mature big money maker that doesn't look possible for growth but still too big to cast aside. It'll straddle the line of advertising where MS tries to not kill its market share but nag users to buy MS subscription services. More telemetry for advertising

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