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  • Ah, there it is. A few weeks ago Powell showed he wouldn't fall in line and kiss Trump's ring. A response like this was inevitable.

    • One thing that sticks out to me is that Trump's been badgering Powell to lower the Fed Rate practically since his first day back in office. Powell's been reluctant, in large part because the jobs numbers looked strong and inflation numbers not-so-great (thanks to the threat of tariffs).

      So then Trump threatens prosecution over the Fed building renovations and that kinda goes nowhere. And now we have this sudden, unexpected jobs report saying "Hey actually jobs numbers are bad!" And once again, Trump's badgering Powell to lower the Fed rate.

      The whole thing stinks to high heaven.

      • To be honest, this is just kind of how jobs reports have tended to work since Bush. It is kind of a consequence of both how reporting has failed to really contextualize how jobs reports tend to release in the US, as well as some (arguable) juking of the stats that make it easier to show positive growth in one area and then use the correctance to show the worse numbers.

        Basically the Bureau of Labor and Statistics releases a monthly report, and at the beginning of the year it is based more on statistical modeling ("hockey stick growth! I got $5 today to mow the lawn, and $10 the next day to do it. If this rate keeps up, by next year I'll be pulling in a couple billion."), then they issue corrections as the actual data rolls in and either confirms or denies their modeling.

        24 hour news (cable and online) got into the habit of basically reporting on the monthly reports like they are gospel, when realistically they are only reliable around November or December. I think the Fed encourages it too because it's quietly one of the levers they can use to inspire foreign investment.

        But, it is difficult to adequately describe how seriously the nerds at the BLS take their jobs. They gather and report real-ass data that you can go look at pretty much back to the 60s. This rhythm must be their compromise with the partisan pressures of the executive.

        • That's not really the problem here though. The problem is that Trump and Republican policy is literally breaking the economy. Tarrifs cause inflation to go up while loosing jobs, while the feds policies can generally only address one at a time (lower interest rates -> jobs and inflation go up / increase interest rates -> jobs and inflation go down).

          Ultimately Trump has screwed over the economy so bad, that in half a year he's created an economic environment that the Fed can't fix unless Trump walks back his trade war.

          Edit: This is why the Fed is in a wait and see period, they expect things to get worse and don't want to play their only card (rates decreases) too early. Trump continues to chip away at the economy and the Fed is about the only thing keeping us afloat.

        • To be honest, this is just kind of how jobs reports have tended to work since Bush.

          250k is a bigger than normal swing. And I'm sure you can come up with a bunch of reasons why. But I find it curious, none-the-less.

          24 hour news (cable and online) got into the habit of basically reporting on the monthly reports like they are gospel, when realistically they are only reliable around November or December.

          It's a bullet point to throw in a news cycle for a journalist department that's increasingly automated, sure. But its also still a report composed by people overseen by an administrator with an agenda. When that administrator wants to soft-peddle bad news or front-load good news or try to shift the blame to some event or prior administration, they can fudge the reports one way or another based on how they estimate and aggregate their data.

          But, it is difficult to adequately describe how seriously the nerds at the BLS take their jobs.

          Sure. And you can say the same thing about the NIH or the CPB or the FBI. But all these departments have been raided by DOGE.

          We've recognized that DOGE layoffs may have compromised the accuracy of government data and that Elon Musk’s DOGE subordinates received approval to use software at the Labor Department that could be used to transfer large amounts of data, two employees said.

          So there's a real open question as to what is ending up in these final reports, how it is being produced, and what spin the current administration is seeking to put on it. No sleight to any desk jockey in the accounting department, but they don't get to author the final draft.

        • 24 hour news (cable and online) got into the habit of basically reporting on the monthly reports like they are gospel, when realistically they are only reliable around November or December. I think the Fed encourages it too because it's quietly one of the levers they can use to inspire foreign investment.

          ... and almost no one actually checks the revisions to those numbers later, because the ruling class isn't smart, they just have money, for whatever reason.

          For the last 2 years, the BLS numbers have been so unreliable, so often revised by huge amounts, that they are just worthless, they're more bullshit than the US media spent the better part of 2 decades saying half the numbers coming out of China were/are.

56 comments