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Political Memes @lemmy.world

Go on then

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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF112
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs in U.S. City Average (Seasonally Adjusted)
Entire Time Series (1967+) Normalized to '82-'84 =100:

Last 5 Years (2020+), Renormalized to 100 = Jan 2020:

So, yeah, thats about 35% increase in 5 years, if you specifically look at the Meat Poultry Fish Eggs component of the CPI.
The CPI numbers, the, '2.5%' inflation number... thats ~~month to month~~ the last 12 months, annualized, like an APR, ... and they are a weighted basket of many, many different subcomponents such as this.
Sort of analagous to how a say, 10% APR... well, thats annualized, so to get the monthly interest rate, you roughly divide by 12... but technically it is more complicated, because that monthly interest rate is actually compounding every month over month.
So the acutal monthly rate is:
MPR = [ ( 1 + APR ) ^ ( 1 / 12 ) ] - 1
If you treat an ~35% increase over almost 5 years with this kind of math, then you end up with an average, effective monthly inflation rate for meat and eggs of:
6.642%, since Jan 2020.
EDIT: I fucked up the math, goddamned javascript based web calculator on shitty mobile phone,.here's something more accurate:
4.984%, since July 2020.
(I'm basically just doing napkin math here, picking specifically July 2020 just because its the 5Y window, normally you'd use a longer period of stability to base this off of, but hopefully ya'll get the idea)
Also worth noting, the latest August numbers are of course backward looking, in time. So, if these price pics in the OP image are literally from today... they may not be reflected in the numbers untill next month.
... Assuming Trump has not destroyed the BLS/FRED by then, who fucking knows.
.........
Why doesn't this line up with broader inflation?
Well, lots of reasons, I'm going to pick probably the biggest one, as opposed to writing an entire PhD level dissertation...
The CPI, the big headline number... is based on an average basket of goods and services that, ie, a weighted index, and uh... that basket, those weights, represent the average, the mean... not the median.
Here's 2022.
https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error/cu-income-before-taxes-2022.pdf
Yep thats a household that makes $94k before taxes, $83k after taxes.
In 2022, the US Median after tax household income was... $64k.
So, the entire basket, and thus CPI, is thus weighted toward the spending patterns of people about 1 standard deviation higher than the median household income.
Rich people do not have the same spending basket as poorer people, poorer people disproportionally spend a lot more of their income on food, rent/mortgage, gas / car expenses...
... And as wealth disparity, and wealth transfer to the elites gets worse and worse, the reported CPI thus underreports actual inflation for more and more people.
........
Hope all these fun numbers help explain some things.
.........
EDIT 2:
Without having to doing a bunch of math yourself...
Probably look at the CPI-U series and components instead of the broader CPI... as the U refers to Urban, and something like 80% of Americans live in what is considered an Urban area.
So looking at the CPI-U is probably a relatively easy way to get a somewhay more realistic look at price levels that actual people pay... but the flipside is that the wealthy disparity is even more lopsided in Urban areas... uh, good luck, lol.
.........
The financial news and media still focus on the broader CPI... basically because of outdated tradition.
Much like how they almost never pay attention the BLS employment number revisions... unless they are very very bad.
You don't need to be very smart to have money, basically just lucky. Or ruthless.
.......
EDIT 3
Ok, using the actual numbers from OP Image... maybe this can demonsrate the power of compound interest.
Thats a 1y difference of +45.496%, in $/lb of beef.
All it takes to get that, in one year...
Is an average, compounding, 3.1742% price increase every month, for 12 months.
Exponential equations run away fast, and human brains tend to default to thinking of linear relationships... not exponential... and thats why credit card companies make so much money, lol.
Anyway, yeah, check this CPI U meat/eggs subcomponent next month to see august price levels, and if they do a massive jump, or if data is now considered a woke diversity hire and now banned shrug
- Wow this is a great write up
  
  I am an unemployed econometrician, and laughing about it.
  
  I'm sorry to hear that, because your amazing talents and dedication could be purposed to save our country and world.
  Thank you for drafting all this and for taking the time to teach us. You're awesome.
  
  Unfortunately that world runs on nepotism and schmoozing and 'prestigious accolades' (aka you have to start off rich) and I am too autistic and too lowborn.
  I could go into an entire schpiel, with cited data and sources, showing that meritocracy is near nonexistant in the US, but uh... this is one of those uh, bell curve memes with the caveman and wizard on both ends, and neurotic normie in the middle.
  You do enough data analysis and one day it hits you that 90% of people cannot or do not read data, and then you realize you have to craft a narrative device if you want any hope of anyone actually absorbing what you're saying lol.
  If its any consolation to you... I have ideas for someday making a very comprehensive immersive sim type game... but at the scale of Kenshi, not your traditional imsim that is basically a series of small levels with choices.
  Maybe someday I will get some of this working before the actual real world apocalypse/mass economic collapse, rofl.
  
  You do enough data analysis and one day it hits you that 90% of people cannot or do not read data
  100% for real. It's like I went to grad school to learn how to be ignored by people. People also behave the same way with internet privacy and personal data online, and so between the two I feel like Kassandra, cursed to shout warnings that go unheeded and point out data that connects it all. Even with a good narrative and meet them in the middle examples, many people simply can't handle any single tiny aspect of their worldview be changed, one iota.
  FWIW, if you have time at the moment, there's a TON of resources online to make coding a game very, very easy, and can be done for relatively little to no money. It's the artwork that takes time and effort. Just don't expect to get rich from it.
  
  Hah yeah, Kassandra is a good analogy.
  Boy who cried wolf but no actually he was right the whole time and you just thought he was a witch.
  As to game dev: Fortunately, I have a lot of experience making mods and game modes for games, I have also worked as a software dev, and I am very much aware of, and actively catalouging, a whole bunch of useful concepts and opensource code and projects and such.
  My main 'blocker' right now is that I got fucking crippled in a mugging / car jacking and am still recovering... I am just in too much pain to be able to physically make the game, write the code.
  The good news there is my daily at home PT is working, things are improving every day, bit by bit... but it still may take a good chunk of time.
  So I just catalogue and basically do framing and conceptual work for how systems would work and integrate.
  I don't expect to get rich haha, I would be happy if I ended up with a game I enjoy playing.
  
  Ah! Sorry about the incident and injury! All the best on your recovery, that's terrible.
  
  makes a thumbs up sign, grimacing through the pain that causes, wearing a wrist brace (and many others)
  
  Yes, a game is a great idea.
  My friend has a degree in computing and statistics, working in climate change studies at Uni in the early 90's. Being a greenie he was disappointed that it seemed futile because, as you said, most people don't care about data.
  He moved into electronic music thinking he could influence people with messages there (kind of like Simpsons embed messaging).
  We now know that pop culture propaganda is somewhat futile in this regard too and if humanity does pull itself out of this mess it will be a vast combination of efforts in many fields. All of them seem futile in isolation.
  
  So hey, I'm an econometrics guy (by hobby) who specializes in narratives. Funny us meeting.
- This was very informative, thanks for taking the time to write it.
  
  Thanks for reading it!
  Too bad when I pointed this kinda shit out when it was more nascent, a decade ago, everyone acted like I was a hysterical loon... fucking oh well I guess!
  Hope you're stocked up on rice and beans and spam and what not.
- You're leaving out the substitution principle.
  If a can of Spam becomes cheaper than actual meat then the CPI will substitute them as "equal". Cheese Wiz is just as "cheese" as stuff that comes out of a cow.
  CPI is nothing but a gamed statistic. It's fake. Even then they can't pretend all is hunky dory.
  
  So, the very complicated and expansive version of what you are talking about is Hedonics, Hedonic Adjustments... and lets just say it is so fucking technical and complicated that as I have said elsewhere in this thrrad, I basically have PTSD from trying to have detailed discussions about which elements of this are valid and to what extent they are valid.
  Its not quite as simple and straightforwardly bullshit as you describe, but it also does functionally end up resulting in the general bullshit that you do describe... its just that quantifying the exact amount of bullshit happening, due to illegitimate hedonic adjustments... is a statistical and accounting nightmare.
  
  Wouldn't hedonic adjustments go the other direction from what the parent comment is saying? If the quality goes down, then the adjustment should increase the stated inflation.
  I read the parent comment as talking about substitution effects in consumer behavior, but the CPI doesn't reweight month to month (it used to only adjust once every few years, but has recently switched to once a year).
  So generally, substitution bias makes the CPI overstate the inflation as actually experienced by the typical household.
  
  Substitution bias tends to overstate inflation, because they only reweight once a year (which is much more frequently than what they used to do). And the reweighting of the components won't change the fact that the individual components continue to be published.
  Beef is getting much more expensive than it used to be. In the 90's, ground beef used to be cheaper per pound than chicken breast. In the 30 years since, beef has gotten expensive much faster than chicken, and now ground beef costs almost 50% more than ground beef:
  Ground beef
  Chicken breast
  
  yes but what about cats? did you not hear, they are eating the cats
- I'm just chiming in to say, yeah, the logic of this is directly in line with the statistics, and economics that I learned in college. I drifted away from it and I haven't run the numbers myself, but I have no reason to doubt the calculations.
  I agree with you, and I'm hoping that will reinforce to others that this is far more complex than most people can comprehend. It's certainly more complex than what the Whitehouse economists seem to understand.... Regardless, I think you said it perfectly with "exponential equations run away fast", and I think that might even be understating it; especially that the average person doesn't "get" how quickly compound rates can increase the costs of things over time.
  I understand that they have to set limits for themselves or they'll be doing calculations all year and never get enough done to have the whole picture. What they are working from is certainly not the whole picture. Regardless, the math doesn't lie.
  If things keep up like this, I think that in less than one quarter, we'll see the numbers skyrocket.
  
  I appreciate the reinforcement that I am not insane, genuienly.
  Struggled with impostor syndrome for a loooong time, and uh... welp, yeah, turns out I spent roughly 2 decades being a lot more right than wrong (not just specifically on this), and everyone else actually either had no clue what they were talking about, or massive unexamind normalcy bias, ignorant of the concept of a state change, a phase transition.
  ... So as the world now burns, I at least find a modicum of horrendous solace in knowing that I was at least not overreacting... though I obviously wish more people had listened to me and taken me seriously, at least ... I tried ... thus my conscious is clear.
- Ty
  TL;DR: so, we're fucked? That good enough? 😉
  
  The whole entire scope of how fucked we are is way, way worse than just inflation in the US...
  but yes, we, broadly, as humans, anywhere on the planet, that may want to live through the next 20 or 30 years... yep we are fucked.
  
  No clue where you are on the planet. However, if you're within reach, I'd be happy to buy you a drink. Cheers! 🍻🍹🍶
  Don't drink? GFY ... enjoy the end of Humanity on your own 😉
  
  I rarely drink due to alcoholism running through the family, but yeah, I'll take a double shot of bourbon please, lol.
  On that note, may be worth looking into how to do some uh, home distillation, at very small scales, what with the impending collapse of Kentucky's spirits industry.
  Also... kombucha may be a good deal easier to make? No clue, but I am some kind of absurd hipster that prefers kombucha over beer but also still very much likes whiskey and bourbon.
  
  I'm extremely lazy at home. I don't even put bread in the toaster or pasta in a pot. So, I'm not making anything.
  
  Well, you may find yourself needing to cook some soon, if the cost of food keeps going up and up.
  Microwave meals may end up being both unhealthy and unaffordable fairly soon.
  
  PB&J, all the way!
  
  I mean hey, peanut butter is a damn good source of protein, just find some that isn't as much sugar as your jam/jelly is.
- This was a great read. Thanks for taking the time to post this.
  
  How dare this user assault U.S. with egghead facts and numbers. Doesn't he know they're eating the cats?!
  USA! USA!
  /s
- They constantly tell you the monthly rate for the same reason as credit card companies (to obscure the long term effects). It's a grift either way. I think that's a point of the comic.
- To add to your comment, if anyone is interested in the data series for steaks generally:
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FC3101

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