2y ago

Looks like the "coup" is over

https://tass.ru/politika/18110833

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I'll distill it down for you:
The Kremlin didn't find a way to resolve the situation, Lukashenko brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin. Without Lukashenko's intervention the Kremlin had no way of backing down. Lukashenko is an ally of the Kremlin, but he is not the Kremlin, and the Kremlin had already taken the position of harsh punishment.
I don't think your take is accurate. Wagner isn't directly under the control of MoD, rather some of Wagner's troops are being given the option of joining/signing contracts. In fact, it's only the ones who did not take part that get this option.
The implication is that the rest of Prigozhin's troops, perhaps his most loyal and most effective, might be going with him to Belarus.
The best way possible would have been to not have the insurrection to begin with. Ideally, by properly supplying troops as promised.
- If that's what you genuinely believe then what else is there to tell you. I also love how you just made up a whole bunch of stuff like Prigozhin's troops going to Belarus. You could totally get a job at one of US propaganda rags writing nonsense all day.
  
  If that’s what you genuinely believe then what else is there to tell you.
  Got to love how ambiguous this statement is. Are you saying it wouldn't have been better to not have an insurrection in the first place?
  I also love how you just made up a whole bunch of stuff like Prigozhin’s troops going to Belarus.
  I'm not making things up, I'm saying there is an implication that Prigozhin's most loyal troops, at least some of the 5,000-8,000 people who were involved in the march, might be going with him to Belarus. I can't imagine they'll want to stay in Russia any more than Prigozhin after this. They won't be allowed to work with the MoD, but they've been given protection under the deal and they have to go somewhere. Following Prigozhin to Belarus seems most likely.
  It's certainly less far fetched than you saying that all of Wagner will be integrated into the MoD, which directly contradicts Dmitry Peskov's statement outlining the deal. Only some of Wagner will be given the opportunity to sign contracts. Up to 20,000 will have the opportunity, but not all will sign.
  >PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny - and whole units did not - will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov said.
  
  You are literally making things up here. There is zero actual evidence to support your claim that any wagner troops are following Prigozhin anywhere. You just pulled this out of your ass based what you can and can't imagine, and trying to sell that as some fact here.
  Meanwhile, read the link you yourself posted till you understand what it says.
  
  I didn't present anything as fact, you're the one distorting things here. I simply pointed out that many thousands of Wagner troops won't be a part of the Russian military anymore, and suggested that the most likely thing they will do is continue following their current leader.
  It seems like a recurring tactic of yours is to deflect people to other things, without actually arguing a single specific point yourself.
  
  There is nothing likely about that statement. The fact that you believe an absurdity does not make it likely. The facts don't support your assertions. And I don't need to keep justifying myself to you here. The only recurring tactic here is you confidently asserting nonsensical things and then acting like they're obviously true.
  
  What any reasonable person would do is suggest an alternative likelihood. What will happen to the 5,000+ Wagner troops that the MoD won't allow to sign contracts?
  
  If the 5,000 troops aren't going to be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD then they obviously become civilians. One has to be living in an alternate reality to think that they're just going to follow Prigozhin around like some praetorian guard. The fact that you even consider this to be a likely scenario shows that you have absolutely no understanding of the situation in Russia.
  
  If the 5,000 troops aren’t going to be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD then they obviously become civilians.
  Most of these troops were part of the Storm-Z forces, people who were taken out of prison and granted freedom in exchange for service.
  It's about as likely as Prigozhin making it safely to Belarus. One way or another, many of Prigozhin's troops are probably going to follow him.
  
  You certainly sound like you're an expert on the subject, so whatever you say there.
  
  The other technique you always resort to is attacking the credibility of the person you're arguing with, rather than arguing any specific point. This suggests you know your reasoning is weak.

131 comments