do any of y'all know if there's a decent writeup of the rationalist/hanson/thiel pre-history of prediction markets (a la polymarket etc) before they hit the much-heightened popularity of the last ~18mo?
I’ve seen a handful of security people claim different kinds of yields with some of this shit. I haven’t gone to read up in depth but I wouldn’t be too surprised a lot of them run around with unstated assumptions/provisos in their thonkposts (this shit is expensive (for research volume) and only some people can afford the science experiments)
Got a list of a couple of names I’m keeping an eye on as the first tokenprice-pocalypse (that needs a better word) takes place
it continues to be amazing to me that this is the “high impact” area they’re going with: even if their analysis systems are better (and frankly I still don’t buy this wholesale, there’s a whole rest of the owl being handwaved[0]), bug-elimination is by definition diminishing returns so you can only fanfare like this the first time
[0] - having fucking gigantic budgets to throw at running a parse of every single repo and every test condition/simulation you wish to certainly does help a hell of a lot, even moreso when you can shell out to a half-dozen second stage review corps…
I've seen the pattern be used as an enterprise pricing dodge before: rather than sign the whole org up at $$$, everyone signs up themselves at $ (and maybe get to claim or somesuch)
another reading could be that someone in leadership/security went "holy shit this exposure is terrible" and put forth a policy including "no personal" and the poor little promptfondler is left ashen-faced upon reading that the policy instruction actually thought of the first obvious workaround
"You should assume that you're being manipulated until they have better systems in place," says Lily Ray, founder of the search engine optimisation (SEO) and AI search consultancy Algorythmic. "We're moving towards this 'one true answer' world.
on the one hand I'm all "save me from marketroids", on the other all "oh so we've solved philosophy?"
dear god what a fucking sentence to be saying as a description of the moment. and I'd fucking bet they're talking to their customers in the same terms/language
https://wiki.debian.org/AptConfiguration#Using_pinning
Beware that down the line you may run into dependency resolution issues (but hopefully the upstream situation is resolved by then)