Russia's Economy in the Late 2020s Will Look a Lot Like the Late Soviet Economy -
Opinion | Because of my work, I am obliged to read closely, watch attentively and listen carefully whenever Russian politicians and officials talk about the economy.
cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44340351
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[Putin said that the task] had been accomplished: inflation would end the year below 6%.
Yet the Central Bank undercut that narrative almost immediately. Contrary to expectations, it lowered the key rate from 16.5% to just 16%.
If inflation truly is below 6%, that implies a real interest rate of roughly 10% — among the highest in the world. Brazil, often cited as an outlier, sits at 9.2%, while Mexico at 5.3%. Turkey and Argentina, despite having interest rates of around 38% and 29% respectively, do not even make the list because inflation there is near or above those levels.
[Russia Central Bank Governor Elvira] Nabiullina’s remarks after this month's rate meeting seemed to support this. Inflation has declined, she said, but not sustainably. The 6% figure only appeared in weekly data, which is not a reliable basis for identifying trends. And although inflation fell in November, it rose in October.
And
Why we must put Russia’s frozen assets to work for Ukraine: Putin doesn’t count the dead but he does count the money --
Putin doesn’t count the dead but he does count the money. Rather than issuing a loan, handing over Moscow’s billions to Kyiv would show strength
cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44053643
Opinion piece by Sir William Browder, founder and head of the [Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign](Sir William Browder is the author of Red Notice and Freezing Order, and head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign)
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The EU agreed to extend a €90 billion (£79 billion) interest-free loan to Ukraine, intended to safeguard the country’s defences and basic functioning for the next two years.
It was a vital lifeline but it came with a grave failure: the outright rejection of a far bolder and more just plan to confiscate Russia’s frozen central bank assets and put them to work for Ukraine.
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The assets in question amount to roughly €210 billion in Russian central bank reserves, immobilised inside the EU just weeks after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They represent a vast war chest belonging to a regime committing mass murder, war crimes and territorial theft
Europe Should Stand with Japan on Taiwan -
Jonas Parello-Plesner urges EU leaders to make clear to China that it would pay a high price for blockading or invading the island.
cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43734791
Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin was clear about his intentions toward Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has left no doubt about his plans for Taiwan. The only way to deter him from pursuing "reunification" with the island is to make clear that the costs of doing so will be punishing.
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Last month, Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, stated that Chinese aggression against the self-governing democratic island could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, warranting a military response.
Takaichi is right, but it is not just Japan that would be affected. Because Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and hosts one of its most vibrant
Russia may (or may not) agree to silence the guns of its invading forces in Ukraine, but it will not stop its escalating shadow war against European NATO --
Ukraine may be Russia’s primary military target, but the regime has a much broader range of enemies, such as NATO.
cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/5783864
[Op-ed by Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, two Russian investigative journalists and co-founders of Agentura.ru, a watchdog of Russian secret service activities.]
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Whatever the outcome of the current negotiations, Putin’s obsession with Europe is so great that leading European nations and hardline anti-Kremlin states like Germany, France, Poland, the Baltic states, and the UK will continue to experience attacks.
Ukraine has been the fulcrum of the Russian president’s campaign to change the post-Cold War settlement of 1989-91, but it is only one part of a much more ambitious campaign to build a more Russia-friendly Europe.
It’s worth remembering that Putin’s ultimatum to the West in December 2021, on the eve of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was primarily targeted at NATO’s presence on the European continent. In particular, it made extraordinary demands for the withdrawal of troops and weapons
Collapsed spy case: China is acting with impunity in the United Kingdom --
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/44533384
Op-ed by Daniel Kochis, senior fellow at Hudson Institute.
**A Facebook post or X retweet will get you jail time in the United Kingdom. But accusations of spying for the Chinese Communist Party result in a lighter touch. **
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If China’s undisguised assistance in support of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine or Chinese intellectual property theft were not enough to deem it a threat to national security, consider two other recent striking examples. In March 2024, the U.K. government publicly accused China of hacking its electoral commission in 2021 and 2022. Or consider the consistent targeting of key civilian systems by China.
In 2024, ministers in the U.K. were even informed that Chinese hackers likely compromised critical infrastructure in the country.
Is the Chinese Communist Party a threat now? If Keir Starmer’s government will ignore such braz
Russia’s ‘permanent test’ is pushing Europe to the brink of war --
Moscow’s provocations may seem rash and incoherent, but they’re all part of a conscious, focused strategy.
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/44322530
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Today, the Kremlin’s strategy increasingly favours hybrid means – drones, cyberattacks, disinformation, and energy blackmail – over warfare. These are not random provocations, but a coherent campaign of testing.
Each incursion and attack serves a diagnostic purpose: Can Europe detect? Can it coordinate a joint response? Can it enact this response swiftly and efficiently?
As Belgian officials admitted after a recent spate of drone sightings, the continent needs to “act faster” in building air-defence systems. Every such admission emboldens Moscow’s conviction that Europe is unprepared and divided.
Back home, these moments are curated into propaganda clips for state television, where pundits mock European “weakness” and frame the continent’s disarray as validation for the Kremlin’s confrontational stance. This manufactured crisis, in turn, is the latest application of a well-honed strategy.
With reg
UK: If it looks, sounds and behaves like an enemy, why are we calling China a ‘challenge’? --
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/43639017
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While China’s agents ride roughshod over Britain’s national security interests on a daily basis, it is extremely rare for the damage they do to be publicly exposed. So the recent fiasco that prevented two Brits, accused of spying for China inside Parliament, from coming to trial is of grave concern. Both suspects are now able to assert their innocence in public, the case dropped on the basis of insufficient evidence.
This decision is reported to reflect last-minute sabotage by UK ministers.
[It is a] false assumption that Britain could deepen economic ties with China while remaining critical of its actions in areas such as human rights abuses and belligerence in the Asia-Pacific. We have prioritised expediency. In 2021, UK MPs of all parties passed a motion declaring Chi