1d ago

Ripper: Pierre Poilievre and the new politics

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We have no idea how lucky we are that Trudeau stepped down when he did.
Almost like he planned it.
- If it was planned they deserve an award for pulling it off so flawlessly.
  Or maybe Canadians don't vote for leaders they vote against leaders. PP's high numbers before Trudeau stepped down were not indicative of people's love of Pierre, but rather their disdane of Justin. This is not a new concept and is demonstrated continually in Canadian politics.
- I dont think anyone could plan for what trump did. The timing for everything was quite spectacular though
- We're not out of the woods yet.
  
  I heard there’s a couple polls saying PP could lose his seat. I will jump for joy if that actually happens. I can’t wait for his party to kick him to the curb and for him to be gone from public life forever.
  
  If they still want him as leader they'll just arrange for him to have a seat in some safer riding.
  
  If he loses his seat while also losing the advantage they had earlier, the conservatives will be knives out for PP in less than a nanosecond. And I’ll be loving it.
  Also, he’s held his seat in Carleton for 25 years, nah if he loses his seat - he is done.
  
  They have a history of dumping a leader who failed to show electoral success.
- The way the entire Liberal party basically didn't respond to the smear campaign against them -- on top of displaying an incongruent level of confidence -- had me for quite a while wondering if they had something smart planned. And there is room for interpreting their moves as chasing one or more of these strategies:
  Run a political decoy (Trudeau) until the last minute to defuse the smear campaign
  Save all dirt on CPC until election season to blitz their support when it's most impactful
  Use a disastrous Dumpster administration to expose CPC's populist platform
  But in the last quarter of 2024 the LPC spent so much time struggling precariously to run out the clock that I abandoned all of these possibilities -- or at least any of them still having a viable path.
  Ultimately, Trudeau's moves worked flawlessly to massive effect, but they relied on far too much luck, some of which could not have even been predicted as a possibility. When Trudeau announced his resignation, he was completely out of time and chips, without any of the requisite win conditions in place yet. If LPC's actual plan was some subset of the result we got, then they are master gamblers (and maybe actors) with stones of stainless steel. The only way I could believe now that they had a plan along any of these lines and were remotely in control of the situation is if Singh was in on it. And if he was, that was one hell of a political sacrifice.
  
  The way the entire Liberal party basically didn't respond to the smear campaign against them
  I interpreted that as partly "I'm not dignifying that with a response" and partly avoiding falling into a Gish gallop trap.
  
  I entertained similar interpretation for a bit as well. But after a while, the absence of any attempt to control the narrative while clearly losing public support was at best tone deaf (if there wasn't some trick up their sleeve).
  After watching Singh act like he's got a clear shot at forming government while his ratings are tanking and legitimate criticisms basically went unanswered, the possibility that they're just oblivious started looking all too plausible. It seems like every party's leadership can only see other parties' faults and weaknesses.
  That said, doing nothing wasn't the worst strategy. Responding with explanations of why things are actually good and/or getting better in Democrat style would have been way worse.
- Lucky why? So Carney could step in and obliterate PP?
  
  Yes.
  
  🤩

16 comments