1y ago

What do you think would happen if Putin was assassinated right now?

Pick whatever non-NATO source.

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Currently, there is no other really powerful figure next to him.
Therefore a giant power vacuum emerges.
The war would stop, probably very soon. But then the situation gets chaotic and unpredictable.
- I'd wager the war goes from internal, to internal civil war, if Putin dies, as various power blocks try either secure their own positions/power, or reach for more.
  assuming they didnt try to blame the west, which then things get far more worse for NATO states, and possibly hot
  
  There’s got to be some kind of Vice Putin isn’t there? A guy who can step in and rule with an iron fist and keep things running? Or is this just some kind of jackal feeding frenzy sort of situation when he dies?
  
  Well yes, no and yes.
  There is a second in line, Mikhail Mishustin. He is relatively new to the position(prime Minister) and was likely chosen for his loyalty and because he is most likely a weak political actor.
  There is also Dmitry Medvedev who is currently the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia. He was the former Prime Minister and president of Russia. A long time member of Putin's Government. He is likely a much stronger political actor. Having said that he may have had a falling out with Putin and has been sidelined for the last few years.
  There are also a number of generals and the leaders of both the FSB and GRU who could bring force to bear to gain power.
  It is unlikely that anyone one of these people have both the political capital and the monopoly on violence to easily take power. It is very common for strongman leaders to surround themselves with weak deputies so that they cannot be easily forced out of power by one of their own. This is in part why you tend to see autocratic regimes collapse into chaos.
  It is also worth noting that there is no second inline for the president in Russia. It goes president, prime minister, nobody.
  If you want to learn more about this dynamic CP Grey did a great few videos on YouTube called The Keys To Power. It explains how various types of leaders get and maintain power.
- Yeah I'd imagine the troops in Ukraine would be pulled back into Russia largely to secure someone's position in their upper ranks, with only enough to maintain defensive positions in Ukraine. If Ukraine broke through during this period it'd probably be over while Russia is distracted with internal issues.
  
  largely to secure someone's position in their upper ranks
  Yes, or simply because noone else really wants this war (=wants the country to pay the price of this war).

74 comments