German power mix may get dirtier for 1st non-nuclear winter
Germany's power producers are preparing for their first winter without nuclear power, after the country closed its last remaining reactors in early 2023 amid ongoing efforts to modernize its energy system.
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However, with generation from solar - Germany’s second largest source of clean electricity behind wind - set to plunge this winter due to reduced daylight, Germany’s total clean power generation looks set to decline just as energy consumption levels rise from higher demand for heating.
There's a big push in Germany to install heat pumps. If people doing that are getting dual air conditioner/heater systems installed, it may be that it'll increase summer demand for electricity, and that'll mitigate some of that.
As things stand, Europe's peak electricity demand is during winter, due to electricity-powered heating.
In the US, peak electricity demand is during summer, due to air conditioning.
What you'd ideally like is, if your generation is non-dispatchable, for demand to more-or-less track when power is available. In general, solar is going to tend to be generating at the right times if your peak load is from air conditioning, and the wrong times if your peak load is from heating.
European adoption of air conditioning is increasing.
In Italy, sales of air conditioning units grew from 865,000 a year in 2012 to 1.92 million in 2022, according to the industry association Assoclima. These were mostly for business and not residential use, with growth reported in the first quarter of this year.
Most are split heat air pump systems, that can heat spaces in the winter, which Assoclima says can reduce gas consumption as prices spike during the war in Ukraine. That dual-use attracts consumers.
What I don't know is what the total impact will be.
In the US, peak electricity demand is during summer, due to air conditioning.
What you’d ideally like is, if your generation is non-dispatchable, for demand to more-or-less track when power is available. In general, solar is going to tend to be generating at the right times if your peak load is from air conditioning, and the wrong times if your peak load is from heating.
Lol... So your bright solution to demand peaks in winter is becoming so wasteful that you manage to need even more in summer?
We're headed for a warmer climate in Europe, that's for sure. So time will help us
Not really sure. Depends on if/when the gulf stream collapses.
We are headed for a more extreme climate thats on average a few degrees warmer. While the heating period may get shorter, the peak load due to heating in extreme winters will increase. Thats the exact opposite of what you want in an all renewable grid.
Winters will be warmer on average, meaning less heating needed. Unless the gulf stream collapsed, which would change everything in Europe