Biden says global warming topping 1.5 degrees in the next 10 to 20 years is scarier than nuclear war
Biden says global warming topping 1.5 degrees in the next 10 to 20 years is scarier than nuclear war
In his comments in Hanoi, Biden talked about the importance of wealthier nations supporting less wealthy nations prepare and adapt to climate change.
What Biden has done is to cut the issuance of drilling leases to the minimum required by law, pass the Inflation Reduction Act, enact a regulation to force vehicle electrification, and similarly force fossil fuels out of most power plants.
What Biden has not done: stop issuing drilling permits or impose export restrictions on fossil fuels. The former has some serious limits because of how the courts treat the right to drill as a property right once you hold a drilling lease, and the latter is simply untested.
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I've got some bad news... We're already there.
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Not exactly. Most references to 1.5C are about the long term average hitting that level, not an individual year.
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Given the trend, it's a pretty strong indicator we're there. What is long-term in the context of a change over 10-20 years, that's reaching a breakaway point?
You understand that when things are steadily moving in one direction, we'd need to overshoot the difference between the start of the reference period and the 1.5 degree figure by 100%(incorrectly assuming linear change - the reality is more exponential - far worse by the time it shows up)
For example - for a 1.5C change over 6 years, starting at 0C:
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Year 0 - real temp 0, average 0
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Year 3 - real temp 1.5, average 0.75
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Year 6 - real temp 3, average 1.5
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The year to year variation is much larger than the underlying increase. We could easily see several years with the anomaly under 1.5C before
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