Bulletins and News Discussion from July 31st to August 6th, 2023 - A West African Federation?

Image is of coup supporters in Niamey, waving the flag of Niger and Russia.

While the coup in Niger is an obvious reason for this megathread's subject, the inspiration to focus here rather than somewhere else in the world this week came from @solaranus@hexbear.net's comment here.

Anyway, as a quick introduction to Niger - the country won independence from the French in 1960 and has since been in an alternating cycle of military governments and more democratic arrangements. In 2010, a junta took over the country from the military junta already ruling it, and then successfully transitioned the country to democracy within a year. President Issoufou was elected and then re-elected in 2016. President Bazoum was democratically elected in 2021, and has just been overthrown last week. General Tchiani looks to be the new head of state.

Like many countries that were previously colonies, outright colonialism by its imperial country has been replaced by neocolonialism by that same country. France issues their currency, thus allowing France to do what the US does with its dollar around the world but in miniature. The country is incredibly poor, surviving on subsidence agriculture, with much of its exports being minerals like gold and uranium, which many children under the age of 14 are employed in extracting. Also like other previously French colonies, the new guys in charge appear to be flipping them the bird, with Burkina Faso and Mali relatively recently asking them to fuck off. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that this is happening as internal dissent inside France itself continues to boil. Given the Russian flags being waved and Putin's promises to supply free grain to some African countries (and though Niger isn't mentioned, Burkina Faso and Mali notably are), one imagines that Russia also might have a hand in things.

Burkina Faso's president, Traore, has been talking with Mali and Guinea, and now Niger - all ruled by military governments - and asking if they're interested in federation, with Mali showing some interest. Traore follows in the tradition of Thomas Sankara, and has appointed a Prime Minister who is similarly aligned. Traore has recently met with a Chinese representative and has firmly aligned himself with Russia, saying that Burkina Faso has "one and the same outlook" on building a new world order, saying:

"Russia made great sacrifices to liberate Europe and the world from Nazism during World War II. We have the same history,"
"We are the forgotten peoples of the world. And we are here now to talk about the future of our countries, about how things will be tomorrow in the world that we are seeking to build, and in which there will be no interference in our internal affairs,"
"However, a slave who does not fight [for his freedom] is not worthy of any indulgence. The heads of African states should not behave like puppets in the hands of the imperialists. We must ensure that our countries are self-sufficient, including as regards food supplies, and can meet all of the needs of our peoples. Glory and respect to our peoples; victory to our peoples! Homeland or death!"

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

This week's first update is here in the comments.

No update on Wednesday because I am still busy.

Friday's update is here in the comments.

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🇳🇪 The head of the "Wagner Group," Yevgeny Prigozhin, expressed his views on the root of the problems in Niger:
"I will answer what is the basis for the change of power in Niger. The basis is the economy. The population of Niger has been driven into poverty for a long time.
For example, a French company that extracted uranium sold it on the market for $218, while paying Niger only $11 for it. You can work with investors on a 50-50 or 30-70 (%) basis, but it's impossible to give back to the indigenous people of the country, who were born in this country, who live in this country, and who expect that the natural resources of this country belong to them, and according to the Constitution, they belong to them, only 5% of the wealth you receive.
To cover up these economic crimes, the country was saturated with a huge number of terrorists. This enormous number of terrorists, theoretically, should have been controlled by a vast number of different troops, financed by the UN, the European Union, Americans, the British, and others. As a result, the population of Niger, which should have been free and happy due to the economic opportunities in their country, was robbed, and to keep them silent, they were kept in fear for decades.
To show that these thieves and plunderers are needed in the state's territory, I mean Western countries like France, the USA, and so on, crowds of soldiers were sent there who did nothing but received enormous budgets that were also embezzled at various levels. That's why the transformation in Niger was simply necessary.
The power that was in league with Bazoum (ousted president) and his followers, simply covered up, allowing the coalition of people who plundered the nation to be present in Niger's territory. That's it. Therefore, this is a liberation struggle, a liberation movement for the independence of this country, and God grant them success."
Can't believe that we're getting such good historical analysis by Prigo
- Wasn't expecting this level of analysis from the head of a fascist PMC tbh. But broken clocks and all that ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯
  
  a fascist PMC
  Is there any actual evidence of this?
  
  The Wagner Group was founded by Dmitry Utkin, and named after his call sign, which is a Reference to the composer Richard Wagner. If you see a picture of him, Dude is covered in Nazi tattoos.
  Other founding Wagner members have ties to the Russian Imperial Movement, which was that Russian Fascist militia that took over that border town just outside of Ukraine a few months ago, and had "1488" emblazoned on their trucks.
  
  If you see a picture of him, Dude is covered in Nazi tattoos
  I've seen the pic. I've also seen people dispute that that pic is Utkin. I'm not saying I'm certain they aren't fascists or that they are actually comrades. I don't really know that much about their origins tbh. I just want to see some actual evidence that they are, like any real evidence that pic is of Utkin and that Utkin did found Wagner, etc. before I feel comfortable going around declaring them to be fascist. It just feels like a very "bothsides" kinda thing. Like a "yes, the Ukrainian military is a Nazi org, but Russia has Wagner and they are too so both sides bad (and also tho, you have to support NATO cuz Russia really bad)" kinda thing, ya know? I've just never seen any proof outside one pic allegedly of utkin and a few people making assertions on twitter.
- Finger read theory
- Something is definitely up with these PMCs. They seem to provide the plausible denial out for the Kremlin same that the CIA does for the US government while pursuing foreign policy objectives if even in a contradictory way or with some conflict.
  
  I don't even think it is so much as 'plausible deniability' so much as it is 'volunteer army'. It's basically the Blackwater/Academi model without as much grift (though probably a fair amount of grift).
  
  So, simply Russian blackwater overzealous in their anti-americanism? Seems mostly true but I still suspect they have their own handlers in the Kremlin.
  
  That's my point. The agreement and nature of the relationship between the Russian military and Wagner and the U.S. military and Blackwater appear to be fundementally different, but one that leaves less plausible deniability by the Russians.
  Legally and officially, of course, both technically have equal plausible deniability. However, the way the U.S. uses their mercenary forces are as jumped-up and plausibly deniable black-ops, wet-work, or security detail. Russia, instead uses them as the volunteer army corp that is one of the essential 'hammers' in their battalions.
  Take the 1st Battle of Fallujah for example, the entire thing was caused by the 'murder' of Blackwater mercs, but then the U.S. Army and Marine Corp went in to 'clean up' their mess.
  On the other hand, you have something like Bahkmut, where Wagner is quite literally the primary force behind the push and the street fighting. Now, you could call this a PR move, but they did similar things in the Chechen Wars.
  The point is that Wagner, unlike Blackwater or any other Western mercenary corp, consistently does their own fighting, cleans up their own messes, which not only means that they are kinda their own political force to be reckoned with, which (from what I can tell) is extremely broad anti-American ideology, but also means that these guys are basically the U.S. army of the Russian army, guys who are extremely ideologically and/or financially motivated to join, whereas conscripts in the Russian army are obligated to join or simply Russian nationalists.
  It's one of the reasons Prigo's push failed. While they are ideologically motivated, they are not motivated by a single coherent ideology, nor is that ideology anti-Putin or even strictly financial in any real way. But that doesn't mean they can't be placed in areas where they will be paired with other anti-imperialism forces and not perform well (though that remains to be seen). This isn't to say they are 'good' (they have committed their share of war-crimes) just that they are, for whatever their reasoning, anti-imperialist.

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